Georgia State at Vanderbilt - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia State logo   Georgia State Panthers at Vanderbilt Commodores  Vanderbilt logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Vanderbilt -27.5 (53.5) (-4500)  Open: -26.5
Vanderbilt 70 - Georgia State: 21

 
Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (18 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
VAN is playing their 4th straight game
GAST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -42  (SP+ VAN -45)

Projected Score: GAST: 8 - VAN: 50 (57)
VAN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
GAST Travel: 216 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.553.5L 21 - 70ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+19.552.5L 7 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+3.055.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.558.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.554.5L 31 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.056.5L 27 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+9.559.5L 18 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+9.551.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.058.5L 10 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)19.842% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)37.849% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)38.542% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)22.846% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GAST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GAST Offense1219.81841.2%3.851.6213901342564.542%58%42%41%18%.15
VAN Defense1322.821.146.9%4.221.1 - - - - - 49%51%46%48%16%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GAST Defense1237.845.347.6%4.421.4 - - - - - 58%42%49%46%14%.28
VAN Offense1338.54442.2%4.250.5172951291663.958%42%42%43%15%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia State1229:5820.736%37%5.149.11.61.441.5030.6
Vanderbilt1328:3916.644%54%548.30.51.14.81.7431.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GAST Offense1242% (118)42% (92)301344.513 (105).06 (105)2.94 (86)67% (108)10% (83)0.95 (74)
VAN Defense1349% (47)46% (96) - - - - .12 (70)2.98 (62)77% (88)10% (76)0.89 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GAST Defense1258% (130)49% (119) - - - - .22 (115)3.36 (117)79% (104)8% (124)0.95 (51)
VAN Offense1358% (18)42% (93)33.1129.23.916 (90).06 (104)2.8 (105)83% (10)8% (41)0.87 (116)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GAST Offense1258% (15)41% (79)22.637.4255.86.811.321 (51)13 (103).24 (78)1.6 (66)33% (98)32% (59).37 (54)7% (114)2.1 (53)
VAN Defense1351% (90)48% (125) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (120)1.5 (33)29% (111)36% (122).45 (117)7% (48)2.1 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GAST Defense1242% (5)46% (118) - - - - - - 9 (76).38 (124)1.6 (80)29% (108)38% (125).46 (123)6% (60)1.8 (11)
VAN Offense1342% (115)43% (53)12.821.8166.37.61318 (68)4 (1).33 (33)1.7 (37)33% (108)31% (74).32 (75)7% (96)2.1 (64)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -15.32  #122
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 8.02  #100
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 23.34  #128
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.5  #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6  #116
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -15.32   Vanderbilt: 21.855

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -24.5   Vanderbilt: 20.3




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 21.855  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 27.73  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 9.32  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.3  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #5
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 50
Georgia State 8


Projected Total Points: 57
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Vanderbilt70Georgia State21Vanderbilt -27.5Vanderbilt53.5Over
202409/14Georgia State36Vanderbilt32Vanderbilt -8.5Georgia State45.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt112 Overs
Georgia State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#122) GAST at (#12) VAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatGASTVAN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #122 #12
SP+SP+ #133 #11
Perf GradeGrade #130 #27
OffenseOff #128 #24
DefenseDef #122 #59
Spec TeamsST #90 #16
TalentTal #94 #47
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #49
Georgia State Notes
(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Georgia State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffVAN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #128 #59
SuccessSuc #90 #121
ExplosiveExp #46 #38
PPAPPA #92 #111
PowerPwr #100 #41
SP+SP+ #116 #39
Pts POPPO #76 #109
HavocHav #108 #65
Georgia State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #127 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #96
Run ExplRExp #74 #30
PPAExp #105 #70
Run BlockR Blk #130 -
OL YdsOLY #86 #62
Stuff RateStuff #94 #39
TackleTak -  #106
Georgia State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #63 #58
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #125
Pass ExplPExl #66 #33
PPAExp #78 #120
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #132 #63
F7 HavocF7 #83 #76
DB HavocDB #114 #48
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffGAST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #24 #122
SuccessSuc #75 #123
ExplosiveExp #108 #46
PPAPPA #76 #121
PowerPwr #2 #128
SP+SP+ #5 #134
Pts POPPO #34 #120
HavocHav #52 #109
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffGAST Def
Run GameRun #17 #111
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #119
Run ExplRExp #116 #51
PPAExp #104 #115
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #117
Stuff RateStuff #117 #111
TackleTak -  #45
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffGAST Def
Pass GamePass #5 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #118
Pass ExplPExl #37 #80
PPAExp #33 #124
Pass Block/RushP Blk #129 #109
F7 HavocF7 #41 #124
DB HavocDB #96 #60
Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Vanderbilt -27.5 (53.5)
Vanderbilt won vs Georgia State this year (70-21)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Georgia State last year (70-21)
Georgia State beat Vanderbilt in 2024 (36-32)

  
GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)12720163%1244676.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)11918465%12591316.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Simmons9754325.692
Cameran Brown (Tr)6128444.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)6326724.229
Branson Robinson (Tr)4614813.247
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst711004614.170
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Grant Hollier21288413.752
Jordan Simmons2819216.932

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson968211
Jaylen Jones665001
Kedrick Walker577310
D-Icey Hopkins513105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jartavius Flounoy226311
Kedrick Walker577310
Josiah Robinson968211
Richard Kramer (Tr)132200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)192106
D-Icey Hopkins513105
Jordan Huff (Tr)471004

VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia26737871%35392989.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia167862105.241
Sedrick Alexander106570115.465
Makhilyn Young4541169.180
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Junior Sherrill54784714.546
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Richie Hoskins28321311.553

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253
Bryan Longwell709142
Langston Patterson692030
Marlen Sewell522112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers379531
Zaylin Wood285471
Khordae Sydnor309493
Nicholas Rinaldi477491
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette517056
Mark Davis233004
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253