Utah State at UNLV - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
UNLV -6.5 (68.5) (-225) Open: -5.5 | 69.5
Allegiant Stadium - Las Vegas, NV (Mountain West)

Aggies (5 - 4) (7 - 2 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 30 (24 - 44 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#77)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: UNLV -8.5 (SP+ UNLV -4)
Projected Score: USU: 30 - UNLV: 39 (69)
UNLV Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
USU Travel: 425 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Rebels (7 - 2) (5 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 32 (39 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+6.5	68.5
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+3
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

UNLV's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	UNLV vs Idaho State	-30.5	67.0	W 38 - 31	O	N
Fri 8/29	UNLV vs Sam Houston	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UNLV vs UCLA	+2.5	54.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UNLV at Miami (OH)	-2.5	49.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UNLV at Wyoming	-4.5	50.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/11	UNLV vs Air Force	-7.0	65.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	UNLV at Boise State	+12.5	60.5	L 31 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UNLV vs New Mexico	-3.5	61.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/8	UNLV at Colorado State	-5.5	60.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/15	UNLV vs Utah State	-6.5	68.5
Fri 11/21	UNLV vs Hawai'i	-5
Sat 11/29	UNLV at Nevada	-15

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#37 (.24)	43% (72)	33.7	42% (86)	2.74 (99)	159	44% (54)	267	5 (3)	#115 (.24)	46% (121)	29.8	48% (124)	45% (101)	4.32 (120)	57.4	0.8	1.2
UNLV	#23 (.29)	46% (30)	37.4	46% (39)	3.14 (29)	208	47% (29)	256	4.56 (21)	#118 (.25)	45% (113)	31.6	46% (116)	44% (100)	4.02 (100)	69.4	1.1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)		43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)		40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	9	33.7	24.3	42.6%	5	0.8	20	426	159	267	4.7	47%	52%	42%	44%	15%	.24
UNLV Defense	9	31.6	35.5	44.8%	4.02	2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	9	29.8	44	45.9%	4.32	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	48%	45%	12%	.24
UNLV Offense	9	37.4	38.5	46.4%	4.56	1.1	23	464	208	256	5.8	51%	48%	46%	47%	16%	.29

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	9	27:20	20.3	33%	67%	7.7	57.4	0.8	1.2	4.3	2.2	1	27.7
UNLV	9	30:59	22.7	45%	60%	7.7	69.4	1.1	2	5	1.7	5	29.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	9	47% (98)	42% (86)	33.6	159.1	4.7	17 (40)	.19 (33)	2.74 (99)	79% (23)	11% (115)	1.19 (5)
UNLV Defense	9	46% (27)	46% (116)	-	-	-	-	.26 (133)	3.16 (119)	59% (9)	9% (100)	1.15 (126)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	9	49% (62)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.25 (132)	3.15 (118)	75% (88)	7% (130)	1.05 (104)
UNLV Offense	9	51% (58)	46% (39)	36.1	208.1	5.8	21 (30)	.27 (10)	3.14 (29)	74% (59)	11% (104)	1.15 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	9	52% (38)	44% (54)	19.8	30.4	266.7	8.8	13.5	21 (14)	3 (7)	.31 (56)	1.6 (62)	32% (83)	33% (50)	.44 (27)	4% (21)	2.1 (35)
UNLV Defense	9	52% (106)	44% (100)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (6)	.28 (86)	1.6 (100)	31% (84)	32% (96)	.19 (29)	7% (27)	1.9 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	9	50% (79)	45% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (38)	.24 (69)	1.3 (4)	27% (131)	32% (103)	.31 (80)	6% (88)	1.7 (6)
UNLV Offense	9	48% (76)	47% (29)	20.2	29.4	256	8.7	12.7	18 (42)	5 (34)	.36 (38)	1.5 (80)	29% (33)	37% (16)	.41 (34)	5% (52)	1.8 (114)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -11.47 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 10.27 #63
Utah State's Defense Rating: 21.74 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.7 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #50
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #114

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -11.47 UNLV: 1.175

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -2.7 UNLV: 1.6

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 1.175 #85
UNLV's Offense Rating: 13.07 #48
UNLV's Defense Rating: 17.32 #121
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6 #68
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #23
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #111

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 44

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 39
Utah State 30

Total Points: 69

Based on Last 4 Games
UNLV 38
Utah State 33

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 38
Utah State 31

Total Points: 69

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 37.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 31.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.5

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/11	Utah State	34	UNLV	50	UNLV -19	Utah State	67.5	Over
2022	09/24	Utah State	24	UNLV	34	UNLV -3	UNLV	61.5	Under
2021	10/16	UNLV	24	Utah State	28	Utah State -7.5	UNLV	64.0	Under
2018	10/13	Utah State	59	UNLV	28	Utah State -27	Utah State	65.0	Over
2017	10/21	UNLV	28	Utah State	52	UNLV -3.5	Utah State	60.5	Over
2014	10/25	Utah State	34	UNLV	20	Utah State -18	UNLV	0
2013	11/09	UNLV	24	Utah State	28	Utah State -13	UNLV	0
2012	09/29	Utah State	35	UNLV	13
2008	08/30	UNLV	27	Utah State	17
2007	08/30	Utah State	16	UNLV	23
2005	09/24	Utah State	31	UNLV	24
2004	09/25	UNLV	21	Utah State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	4	4	3 Overs
Utah State	8	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 7	4 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 5	3 - 4	1 - 3	2 - 1

(#117) USU at (#85) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	UNLV
Power RatePwr	#117	#85
SP+SP+	#79	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#50
OffenseOff	#75	#32
DefenseDef	#65	#90
Spec TeamsST	#131	#71
TalentTal	#118	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

UNLV Notes(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNLV Def
Perf GradePerf	#75	#90
SuccessSuc	#72	#113
ExplosiveExp	#15	#127
PPAPPA	#37	#118
PowerPwr	#63	#121
SP+SP+	#50	#111
Pts POPPO	#3	#100
HavocHav	#72	#72

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#86	#107
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#116
Run ExplRExp	#5	#126
PPAExp	#33	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#68
TackleTak	-	#90

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#58
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#100
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#100
PPAExp	#56	#86
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#112	#63
F7 HavocF7	#115	#100
DB HavocDB	#21	#27

UNLV on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#32	#65
SuccessSuc	#30	#121
ExplosiveExp	#35	#33
PPAPPA	#23	#115
PowerPwr	#48	#133
SP+SP+	#23	#114
Pts POPPO	#21	#120
HavocHav	#82	#131

UNLV Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#124
Run ExplRExp	#12	#104
PPAExp	#10	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	#29	#118
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#119
TackleTak	-	#89

UNLV Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#4
PPAExp	#38	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#82	#99
F7 HavocF7	#104	#130
DB HavocDB	#52	#88

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Utah State last year (50-34)
UNLV beat Utah State in 2022 (34-24)

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	154	236	65%	2096	17	3	8.9
Jacob Conover	19	33	58%	245	2	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Miles Davis (Tr)	96	609	6	6.3	64
Bryson Barnes	113	407	7	3.6	35
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	48	243	2	5.1	58
Noah White	24	85	0	3.5	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	42	710	5	16.9	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	34	548	5	16.1	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	31	264	2	8.5	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	13	244	2	18.8	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	79	7	6	5	1
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	69	2	1	0	6
Noah Avinger (Tr)	61	0	0	0	5
Bronson Olevao	58	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	79	7	6	5	1
Bronson Olevao	58	6	3	5	1
Tyree Morris (Tr)	35	5	3	1	0
William Holmes	43	6	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	69	2	1	0	6
Noah Avinger (Tr)	61	0	0	0	5
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	23	2	0	1	4

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	178	258	69%	2251	17	5	8.7
Alex Orji (Tr)	3	3	100%	37	0	0	12.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	103	778	8	7.6	70
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	89	484	6	5.4	37
Jaylon Glover (Tr)	44	282	1	6.4	43
Keyvone Lee (Tr)	62	276	5	4.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Bradley	37	650	3	17.6	56
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	18	329	3	18.3	86
Troy Omeire (Tr)	21	310	3	14.8	68
Jai'Den Thomas	29	169	1	5.8	27

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marsel McDuffie	70	5	1	1	3
Jake Pope (Tr)	56	1	0	0	1
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	48	6	2	0	3
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	40	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)	29	6	4	3	2
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	31	3	2	0	5
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	48	6	2	0	3
Lucas Conti	20	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Quandarius Keyes	9	0	0	5
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	31	3	2	5
Tre Fulton	22	1	0	3