Utah State at UNLV - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at UNLV RebelsUNLV logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Allegiant Stadium - Las Vegas, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (22 - 44 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: UNLV -13.5   (SP+ UNLV -8)
Projected Score: USU: 25 - UNLV: 38 (63)
UNLV Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
USU Travel: 425 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 25 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 2.5 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-11
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+33.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+6
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+1
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-7
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13.5
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+14.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 UNLV vs Idaho State-30.567.0W 38 - 31ON
Fri 8/29 UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.558.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/6 UNLV vs UCLA+2.554.5W 30 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.548.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UNLV at Wyoming-1.5
Sat 10/11 UNLV vs Air Force-13.5
Sat 10/18 UNLV at Boise State+8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UNLV vs New Mexico-16
Sat 11/8 UNLV at Colorado State-3.5
Sat 11/15 UNLV vs Utah State-13.5
Sat 11/22 UNLV vs Hawai'i-10
Sat 11/29 UNLV at Nevada-13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#72 (.2)40% (101)3334% (121)2.49 (112)13045% (61)2315.31 (21)#94 (.18)47% (115)3050% (118)43% (91)5.38 (130)57.70.31.7
UNLV#35 (.32)50% (31)35.347% (52)3.12 (56)20255% (16)2284.74 (40)#86 (.16)47% (118)2550% (118)47% (112)3.58 (69)1040.72.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)43% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)40% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense3332239.8%5.310.3193601302313.947%53%34%45%19%.2
UNLV Defense3252747.1%3.582.3 - - - - - 37%60%50%47%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense3304446.7%5.381.7 - - - - - 57%42%50%43%12%.18
UNLV Offense335.33450%4.740.7224302022285.758%42%47%55%12%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State326:0419.323%100%957.70.31.752029.7
UNLV329:4921.742%100%9.71040.72.362.3130.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense347% (92)34% (121)33.3129.73.97 (38).18 (52)2.49 (112)50% (124)15% (131)1.56 (5)
UNLV Defense337% (4)50% (118) - - - - .26 (119)2.55 (47)57% (28)9% (80)1.25 (118)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense357% (117)50% (118) - - - - .21 (113)2.9 (83)75% (80)7% (109)0.9 (61)
UNLV Offense358% (26)47% (52)35.72025.77 (38).16 (59)3.12 (56)71% (67)10% (93)0.91 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense353% (44)45% (61)17.327230.78.513.36 (34)0 (1).21 (86)1.4 (101)36% (120)28% (93).16 (107)4% (38)2 (60)
UNLV Defense360% (129)47% (112) - - - - - - 6 (2).22 (71)1.4 (33)28% (121)35% (112).02 (22)8% (23)1.6 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense342% (20)43% (91) - - - - - - 4 (12).16 (54)1.2 (15)24% (130)20% (26)-.04 (16)5% (94)1.3 (4)
UNLV Offense342% (111)55% (16)17.322.722810.113.26 (34)1 (23).55 (20)1.6 (59)25% (24)36% (42).34 (68)2% (10)1.6 (114)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -15.70 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -15.70   UNLV: 1.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.3   UNLV: -1.8




UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 1.08 #82
UNLV's Offense Rating: 12.89 #69
UNLV's Defense Rating: 13.93 #97
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #75
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #55
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #96

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense on Road: 44

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UNLV 38
Utah State 25


Total Points: 63

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 27

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/11Utah State34UNLV50UNLVUNLV -19Utah State67.5Over
202209/24Utah State24UNLV34UNLVUNLV -3UNLV61.5Under
202110/16UNLV24Utah State28Utah StateUtah State -7.5UNLV64.0Under
201810/13Utah State59UNLV28Utah StateUtah State -27Utah State65.0Over
201710/21UNLV28Utah State52Utah StateUNLV -3.5Utah State60.5Over
201410/25Utah State34UNLV20Utah StateUtah State -18UNLV0
201311/09UNLV24Utah State28Utah StateUtah State -13UNLV0
201209/29Utah State35UNLV13Utah State
200808/30UNLV27Utah State17UNLV
200708/30Utah State16UNLV23UNLV
200509/24Utah State31UNLV24Utah State
200409/25UNLV21Utah State31Utah State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UNLV443 Overs
Utah State832 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 74 - 31 - 23 - 1
Road Teams7 - 53 - 41 - 32 - 1

(#117) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -15.70 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Utah State has lost 6 straight
Utah State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)

Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread

Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUNLVUSU
OverallOver#24#57
OffenseOff#15#59
DefenseDef#52#60
Special TeamsST#83#103
PassingPass#13#33
RushingRush#15#90
Run BlockRBLK#39#70
Pass BlockPBLK#99#79
Route RunningWR Rt#18#43
TacklingTkl#102#70
Run DefenseR Def#77#61
Pass Rush DefPRush#50#99
Coverage DefCov#24#44

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Utah State last year (50-34)
UNLV beat Utah State in 2022 (34-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | UNLV
Depth Chart: USU | UNLV
Rosters: USU | UNLV
(#82) UNLV Info
Power Rating: 1.08 #82
Offense Rating: 12.89 #69
Defense Rating: 13.93 #97
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #96
Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.74 PPO
Avg Run Success 47%
Great Pass Success 55%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

UNLV has lost 6 straight
UNLV has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

UNLV Notes
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
(4/7) DC Arnett resigned. Paul Guenther now Int DC
(3/29) QB Colandrea (UVA) vs Orji (Mich). Interesting
(3/29) RB Thomas good, Lee (MSU), Glover (Utah) added
(3/29) WR rebuild, 5 portal adds. 3 portal TE's

UNLV Highlights
UNLV in Undefeated
UNLV is Undefeated at Home
UNLV is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

UNLV Secondary is very good (#23)
UNLV has a great TO Margin (#28)
UNLV defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

UNLV Deficiencies
UNLV Commits a Lot of Penalties (#132)
UNLV has a bad defense (#118)


  
Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes518064%689508.6
Anthony Garcia (Tr)11100%3103.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Davis (Tr)3119216.258
Javen Jacobs (Tr)2111515.552
Bryson Barnes466941.518
Anthony Garcia (Tr)117117.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)14208314.954
Brady Boyd (Tr)13190014.624
Miles Davis (Tr)97027.830
Javen Jacobs (Tr)75507.918

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Noah Avinger (Tr)260000
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
William Holmes192020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Bronson Olevao183211
Tyree Morris (Tr)152100
Mataira Brown40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
Carl Nesmith40001
Dylan Tucker (Tr)100001

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)496575%6476110.0
Alex Orji (Tr)33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas3227348.570
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)3017515.837
Keyvone Lee (Tr)136615.119
Jaylon Glover (Tr)154803.29
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Bradley13262120.249
Var'Keyes Gumms (Tr)683113.817
JoJo Earle (Tr)665010.832
Troy Omeire (Tr)661110.221

View UNLV's Full Roster
UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Pope (Tr)220000
Marsel McDuffie191111
Aamaris Brown (Tr)173202
Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu172011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)173202
Jalen Lee (Tr)71100
Marsel McDuffie191111
Landen Thomas (Tr)51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quandarius Keyes00003
Aamaris Brown (Tr)173202
Justin Flowe (Tr)91001