Utah State at Texas A&M - 2025 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Texas A&M Aggies(#19)

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:45 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -34.5 (57.5) (-20000) Open: -29.5 | 55.5
Texas A&M 44 - Utah State: 22

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

TA&M 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Texas A&M -32 (SP+ TA&M -22)
Projected Score: USU: 12 - TA&M: 44 (56)
TA&M Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
USU Travel: 1153 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (31 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 1.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
TA&M Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Texas A&M's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas A&M vs UTSA	-21.5	56.5	W 42 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/6	Texas A&M vs Utah State	-34.5	57.5	W 44 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/13	Texas A&M at Notre Dame	+7.5	48.5	W 41 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Texas A&M vs Auburn	-6.5	51.5	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/4	Texas A&M vs Mississippi State	-17.5	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Texas A&M vs Florida	-7.0	47.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Texas A&M at Arkansas	-7.5	57.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Texas A&M at LSU	-1.5	50.5	W 49 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Texas A&M at Missouri	-7.0	48.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Texas A&M vs South Carolina	-16.5	49.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/22	Texas A&M vs Samford	-54.5	59.5	W 48 - 0	U	N
Fri 11/28	Texas A&M at Texas	-2.5	54.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 12/20	Texas A&M vs Miami	-3.0	48.5	L 3 - 10	U	N

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#48 (.2)	41% (91)	30.9	42% (87)	2.87 (82)	158	41% (83)	232	4.49 (18)	#111 (.22)	43% (91)	28.7	45% (100)	42% (70)	3.77 (75)	54.5	0.8	1.1
TA&M	#29 (.24)	46% (28)	33.8	47% (36)	3.16 (31)	185	46% (27)	260	4.14 (35)	#56 (.13)	34% (6)	21	36% (10)	33% (5)	3.91 (96)	60.7	1.5	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
TA&M	#54 (.21)	45% (41)		46% (38)	3.29 (27)	185	43% (58)	188	3.63 (93)	#67 (.16)	38% (23)		40% (38)	37% (22)	3.03 (9)	60.7	1	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	40.9%	4.49	0.8	20	390	158	232	4.9	47%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.2
TA&M Defense	13	21	15.3	34.1%	3.91	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	36%	33%	21%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	43.4%	3.77	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	13%	.22
TA&M Offense	13	33.8	31.1	46.1%	4.14	1.5	23	445	185	260	4.9	52%	47%	47%	46%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	25:22	19.6	35%	54%	7.1	54.5	0.8	1.1	4.2	2.1	1	28.2
Texas A&M	13	32:30	22.5	41%	71%	7.2	60.7	1.5	0.8	8.5	3.3	2	32.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	47% (96)	42% (87)	32.2	158.3	4.9	24 (40)	.19 (33)	2.87 (82)	71% (74)	11% (119)	1.16 (9)
TA&M Defense	13	46% (25)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	.15 (96)	2.67 (25)	75% (99)	16% (3)	1.29 (136)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	47% (30)	45% (100)	-	-	-	-	.21 (124)	3.18 (116)	70% (59)	7% (127)	1.04 (105)
TA&M Offense	13	52% (50)	47% (36)	38.1	185	4.9	28 (36)	.16 (46)	3.16 (31)	75% (49)	6% (1)	0.93 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (83)	17.5	28.9	232	8	13.2	24 (14)	4 (7)	.24 (70)	1.5 (68)	33% (98)	31% (56)	.36 (48)	5% (30)	2.1 (62)
TA&M Defense	13	52% (116)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (123)	.1 (15)	1.6 (92)	39% (2)	23% (6)	.22 (37)	6% (76)	2.3 (132)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	52% (111)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (38)	.24 (61)	1.5 (26)	29% (111)	33% (115)	.37 (109)	6% (59)	1.9 (27)
TA&M Offense	13	47% (83)	46% (27)	19.1	31.4	259.8	8.3	13.6	26 (22)	14 (60)	.38 (26)	1.5 (66)	29% (30)	29% (83)	.28 (74)	5% (39)	2 (71)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -9.09 #104
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.21 #71
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.30 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #74
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #51
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.09 Texas A&M: 27.27

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -0.3 Texas A&M: 21.8

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 27.27 #7
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 27.53 #6
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: -6.20 #11
2025 Talent Rating: 990.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #6
Texas A&M's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 1.4
Texas A&M's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #8
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #8
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas A&M 44
Utah State 12

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas A&M 28
Utah State 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Texas A&M 33
Utah State 23

Total Points: 56

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.1
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Texas A&M's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Texas A&M	44	Utah State	22	Texas A&M -34.5	Utah State	57.5	Over
2009	09/19	Texas A&M	38	Utah State	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas A&M	2	0	1 Overs
Utah State	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#104) USU at (#7) TA&M

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	TA&M
Power RatePwr	#104	#7
SP+SP+	#74	#8
Perf GradeGrade	#90	#17
OffenseOff	#80	#42
DefenseDef	#80	#18
Spec TeamsST	#114	#13
TalentTal	#118	#11
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#6

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Texas A&M Notes(12/15) Hired Holmon Wiggins as OC, coached WR '24-'25
(12/12) Hired DC Lyle Memphill to replace Jay Bateman at DC
(11/28) RB1 Le'Veon Moss out for Texas, still unable to play
(11/15) WR3 Bethel-Roman non-contact inj vs S.Car
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in scoring opportunites
(10/18) Survived Ark, Off was great, Def was torched for 527
(10/15) Only have one SEC home game left (11/15 - S Car)
(10/12) Def has held opp to 2 of 33 on 3rd down in SEC play
(10/8) OL is highest graded via PFF, heavy Run Off 55%
(10/1) Most penalized team in CFB at 9.5 per game
(10/1) Last in SEC in 3rd down conversions at 31%
(9/27) Offense torched ND, WR are electric, Def not great
Texas A&M Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	TA&M Def
Perf GradePerf	#80	#18
SuccessSuc	#91	#6
ExplosiveExp	#19	#135
PPAPPA	#48	#56
PowerPwr	#71	#11
SP+SP+	#51	#21
Pts POPPO	#18	#96
HavocHav	#88	#4

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	TA&M Def
Run GameRun	#81	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#10
Run ExplRExp	#9	#136
PPAExp	#33	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#41
TackleTak	-	#82

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	TA&M Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#92
PPAExp	#70	#15
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#14
F7 HavocF7	#119	#3
DB HavocDB	#30	#76

Texas A&M on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#42	#80
SuccessSuc	#28	#91
ExplosiveExp	#82	#63
PPAPPA	#29	#111
PowerPwr	#6	#120
SP+SP+	#8	#91
Pts POPPO	#35	#75
HavocHav	#7	#113

Texas A&M Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#47	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#100
Run ExplRExp	#83	#105
PPAExp	#46	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#110
TackleTak	-	#106

Texas A&M Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#27	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#26
PPAExp	#26	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#110
F7 HavocF7	#1	#127
DB HavocDB	#39	#59

Program Comparison
TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions:
Temp: 90°

Rematch from Week 2
Texas A&M -34.5 (57.5)
Texas A&M won vs Utah State this year (44-22)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	40	60%	323	4	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Ike Larsen	56	3	0	1	5

TA&M's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Marcel Reed	234	377	62%	3169	25	12	8.4
Miles O'Neill	7	14	50%	120	1	2	8.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rueben Owens	119	639	5	5.4	57
Marcel Reed	104	493	6	4.7	46
Le'Veon Moss	77	404	6	5.2	38
Amari Daniels	41	216	1	5.3	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion (Tr)	61	919	9	15.1	48
Mario Craver (Tr)	58	911	4	15.7	86
Ashton Bethel-Roman	24	503	5	21.0	76
Nate Boerkircher (Tr)	20	204	3	10.2	28

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Jay Bateman (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taurean York	72	7	1	5	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	66	3	0	2	3
Dalton Brooks	61	6	3	3	1
Daymion Sanford	57	10	4	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	32	15	13	5	6
Daymion Sanford	57	10	4	3	2
Dayon Hayes (Tr)	17	4	4	6	1
Dalton Brooks	61	6	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will Lee III	50	2	1	0	7
Cashius Howell	32	15	13	5	6
Dezz Ricks	26	1	0	0	5