Kentucky at Vanderbilt - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores(#14)Vanderbilt logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Vanderbilt -7 (53.5) (-298)  Open: -7.5
Vanderbilt 45 - Kentucky: 17  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
VAN coming off BYE
UK is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -22  (SP+ VAN -19)

Projected Score: UK: 15 - VAN: 37 (51)
VAN Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UK Travel: 182 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#116 (.08)42% (79)2345% (53)3.05 (50)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#84 (.18)44% (96)26.444% (83)45% (110)3.98 (99)411.81.2
VAN#1 (.46)53% (1)38.551% (9)3.35 (11)17257% (2)2615.06 (1)#95 (.2)41% (63)22.840% (47)43% (77)3.8 (80)55.60.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)42% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)46% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense122310.841.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08
VAN Defense1322.821.141.3%3.81.1 - - - - - 43%55%40%43%17%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1226.431.843.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
VAN Offense1338.54453.5%5.060.9224331722615.948%50%51%57%13%.46

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Vanderbilt1329:1022.553%59%6.155.60.91.15.82.2130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (50)70% (85)11% (112)0.82 (123)
VAN Defense1343% (6)40% (47) - - - - .04 (29)2.74 (40)73% (80)11% (20)0.89 (33)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1252% (97)44% (83) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (45)10% (57)0.9 (41)
VAN Offense1348% (77)51% (9)29.21725.934 (4).36 (1)3.35 (11)76% (38)8% (29)1.21 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (63)26% (111).02 (134)7% (94)1.7 (131)
VAN Defense1355% (131)43% (77) - - - - - - 7 (75).33 (104)1.5 (60)34% (26)30% (72).34 (96)6% (68)2 (63)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1246% (36)45% (110) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (65)30% (91)31% (83).31 (76)5% (110)2 (55)
VAN Offense1350% (58)57% (2)19.527.8260.69.413.328 (22)8 (34).58 (2)1.5 (83)26% (9)51% (1).8 (1)5% (25)2 (78)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 4.04  #56
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.52  #65
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.48  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 4.04   Vanderbilt: 24.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 1.8   Vanderbilt: 20.9




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 24.68  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 30.58  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 7.12  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.9  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #4
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #32

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 37
Kentucky 15


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Kentucky 23
Vanderbilt 21

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Vanderbilt 35
Kentucky 20

Total Points: 55
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Vanderbilt45Kentucky17Vanderbilt -7Vanderbilt53.5Over
202410/12Kentucky13Vanderbilt20Kentucky -12.5Vanderbilt44.5Under
202309/23Vanderbilt28Kentucky45Kentucky -13.5Kentucky50.0Over
202211/12Kentucky21Vanderbilt24Kentucky -17.0Vanderbilt45.5Under
202111/13Vanderbilt17Kentucky34Kentucky -21.5Vanderbilt52.5Under
202011/14Kentucky38Vanderbilt35Kentucky -17.5Vanderbilt41.5Over
201911/16Vanderbilt14Kentucky38Kentucky -9Kentucky43.0Over
201810/20Kentucky14Vanderbilt7Kentucky -10.5Vanderbilt45.0Under
201711/11Vanderbilt21Kentucky44Vanderbilt -2.5Kentucky53.0Over
201610/08Kentucky20Vanderbilt13Kentucky -2Kentucky48.5Under
201511/14Vanderbilt21Kentucky17Vanderbilt -2.5Vanderbilt41.5Under
201409/27Kentucky17Vanderbilt7Kentucky -14Vanderbilt0
201311/16Vanderbilt22Kentucky6Vanderbilt -13.5Vanderbilt0
201211/03Kentucky0Vanderbilt40
201111/12Vanderbilt38Kentucky8
201011/13Kentucky38Vanderbilt20
200911/14Vanderbilt13Kentucky24
200811/15Kentucky24Vanderbilt31
200711/10Vanderbilt20Kentucky27
200611/11Kentucky38Vanderbilt26
200511/12Vanderbilt43Kentucky48
200411/13Kentucky14Vanderbilt13
200311/15Vanderbilt28Kentucky17
200111/10Vanderbilt30Kentucky56
200011/10Kentucky20Vanderbilt24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt1095 Overs
Kentucky1546 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 135 - 84 - 61 - 2
Road Teams13 - 128 - 52 - 16 - 4

(#56) UK at (#12) VAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKVAN
Power RatePwr #56 #12
SP+SP+ #63 #11
Perf GradeGrade #70 #27
OffenseOff #91 #25
DefenseDef #38 #56
Spec TeamsST #87 #19
TalentTal #26 #47
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #49
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffVAN Def
Perf GradePerf #91 #56
SuccessSuc #79 #63
ExplosiveExp #126 #90
PPAPPA #116 #95
PowerPwr #65 #62
SP+SP+ #78 #32
Pts POPPO #57 #80
HavocHav #110 #35
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #88 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #47
Run ExplRExp #123 #33
PPAExp #98 #29
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #40
Stuff RateStuff #52 #40
TackleTak -  #104
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #120 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #77
Pass ExplPExl #59 #60
PPAExp #101 #104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #48 #62
F7 HavocF7 #112 #20
DB HavocDB #94 #68
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #38
SuccessSuc #1 #96
ExplosiveExp #14 #57
PPAPPA #1 #84
PowerPwr #2 #49
SP+SP+ #4 #48
Pts POPPO #1 #99
HavocHav #22 #91
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffUK Def
Run GameRun #15 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #83
Run ExplRExp #2 #41
PPAExp #1 #63
Run BlockR Blk #90 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #71
Stuff RateStuff #29 #53
TackleTak -  #38
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #4 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #2 #110
Pass ExplPExl #83 #65
PPAExp #2 #99
Pass Block/RushP Blk #129 #10
F7 HavocF7 #29 #57
DB HavocDB #25 #110
Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 61° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Vanderbilt -7.0 (53.5)
Vanderbilt won vs Kentucky this year (45-17)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Kentucky last year (20-13)
Kentucky beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (45-28)
Vanderbilt beat Kentucky in 2022 (24-21)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024

VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia24234071%31922789.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia15282695.441
Sedrick Alexander103563115.565
Makhilyn Young4440769.380
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Tre Richardson (Tr)41683616.771
Junior Sherrill46661714.440
Richie Hoskins26305311.753

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Longwell679142
C.J. Heard (Tr)644253
Langston Patterson611030
Randon Fontenette487056
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers359531
Zaylin Wood265461
Nicholas Rinaldi427491
Khordae Sydnor299483
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette487056
Khordae Sydnor299483
C.J. Heard (Tr)644253