Utah State at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (25 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
USU coming off BYE
HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -7   (SP+ HAW -3)
Projected Score: USU: 26 - HAW: 33 (59)
HAW Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
USU Travel: 3010 miles, 4 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#74)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.50.0
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+40.5
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+1.5
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-7.5
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+7
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+8
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-4
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+11.5
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford+2.50.0
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.00.0
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-9.5
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-12.5
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+1.5
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+2
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State-7
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+8.5
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Hawai'i at UNLV+8.5
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)31.948% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)37.848% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)22.346% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)2645% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1231.925.245.6%4.421.8234681992695.746%54%48%44%16%.24
HAW Defense122619.642%4.150.9 - - - - - 50%50%45%40%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1237.845.247.4%4.441.3 - - - - - 51%49%48%48%15%.27
HAW Offense1222.327.144.2%3.811.621367992683.636%64%46%44%19%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1227:1922.540%50%7.873.81.81.362.3128.1
Hawai'i1230:1920.837%55%870.31.60.95.72.3125.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1246% (102)48% (24)35.1199.35.721 (59).26 (13)3.41 (12)65% (117)8% (39)1.11 (18)
HAW Defense1250% (57)45% (85) - - - - .16 (90)3.27 (108)79% (103)10% (74)0.97 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1251% (69)48% (112) - - - - .25 (124)3.45 (128)76% (85)10% (70)0.96 (56)
HAW Offense1236% (134)46% (45)27.8993.67 (131).13 (68)3.29 (26)80% (23)11% (88)0.83 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1254% (36)44% (37)24.538.2269.17.11129 (12)17 (127).25 (69)1.5 (118)29% (30)33% (54).4 (38)8% (124)2.1 (31)
HAW Defense1250% (79)40% (58) - - - - - - 6 (109).22 (58)1.4 (19)31% (82)30% (63).31 (72)6% (73)1.8 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1249% (64)48% (123) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (106)1.5 (30)27% (129)32% (97).32 (75)5% (99)1.8 (21)
HAW Offense1264% (1)44% (50)23.840.1268.26.711.325 (31)15 (123).21 (92)1.4 (130)32% (80)33% (49).31 (81)8% (127)2 (94)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -16.72 #114
Utah State's Offense Rating: 9.08 #99
Utah State's Defense Rating: 25.80 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 480.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #117
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 498.5
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -16.72   Hawai'i: -8.63

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -14.8   Hawai'i: -11.5




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -8.63 #95
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 9.05 #100
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.81 #97
2025 Talent Rating: 398.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #108
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #120
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 498.5
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.2

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 33
Utah State 26

Projected Total Points: 59
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Utah State55Hawai'i10Utah StateHawai'i -2.5Utah State62.0Over
202211/12Hawai'i34Utah State41Utah StateUtah State -10Hawai'i55.0Over
202110/30Utah State51Hawai'i31Utah StateUtah State -3.5Utah State66.0Over
201811/03Hawai'i17Utah State56Utah StateUtah State -19Utah State71.0Over
201711/18Utah State38Hawai'i0Utah StateUtah State -10.5Utah State56.5Under
201411/01Hawai'i14Utah State35Utah StateUtah State -3Utah State41.5Over
201311/02Utah State47Hawai'i10Utah StateUtah State -21Utah State0
201111/06Hawai'i31Utah State35Utah State
201010/23Utah State7Hawai'i45Hawai'i
200911/07Hawai'i49Utah State36Hawai'i
200811/01Utah State30Hawai'i14Utah State
200710/07Hawai'i52Utah State37Hawai'i
200611/04Utah State10Hawai'i63Hawai'i
200511/12Hawai'i50Utah State23Hawai'i
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i515 Overs
Utah State961 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 65 - 23 - 02 - 2
Road Teams6 - 82 - 52 - 20 - 3

(#114) Utah State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.72 #114
Offense Rating: 9.08 #99
Defense Rating: 25.80 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #132
Talent Rating: 480.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.42 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Utah State Notes
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) WR 6 portal adds, Hestera exp. TE Sterzer OK
(3/29) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 1 portal add
(3/29) Def god awful LY. 8 portal adds, new DC
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
(3/22) 7 (of 21) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
Utah State     Ratings Matchup     Hawai'i
Power #114
#95
Off #99
#100
Def #124
#97
Talent #112
#124
SP+ #117
#108
SP+ Off #88
#120
SP+ Def #132
#87

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Hawai'i last year (55-10)
Utah State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (41-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | HAW
Depth Chart: USU | HAW
Rosters: USU | HAW
(#95) Hawai'i Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.63 #95
Offense Rating: 9.05 #100
Defense Rating: 19.81 #97
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #108
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #87
Talent Rating: 398.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Hawai'i Notes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) New QB SO. Micah Alejado has good command
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
(4/7) OL 4/5 back, good LY, some size/depth
(4/7) Def bad LY, returns some. 4 portal DL added
(4/7) HC Chang slow build, needs a good year, bowl
(4/7) Offense could jump TY, can Def improve?


  
Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes7712661%8561266.8
Jacob Conover2450%22005.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Barnes6853057.863
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4027736.950
Derrick Jameson1514029.372
Miles Davis (Tr)187604.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Sterzer20202410.137
Broc Lane19197210.426
Javen Jacobs (Tr)1713017.633
Miles Davis (Tr)568113.626

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005
Ike Larsen802009
Bryson Taylor (Tr)5620010
John Miller526242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bronson Olevao234430
John Miller526242
William Holmes62210
Isaiah Bruce192102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Taylor (Tr)5620010
Ike Larsen802009
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005

Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado497070%585608.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims7135114.929
Cam Barfield3315804.821
Christian Vaughn1710906.430
Micah Alejado195903.119
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nicholas Cenacle63721611.462
Pofele Ashlock61629610.330
Landon Sims13153011.852
Karsyn Pupunu680013.325

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis555220
Logan Taylor521000
Elijah Robinson5111510
Peter Manuma430003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III205550
Elijah Robinson5111510
Wynden Ho'Ohuli144231
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina133200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer325005
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen331004
Jaheim Wilson-Jones161003