Utah State at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo   Utah State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors  Hawai
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (11:59 PM EDT)
Utah State -1.5 (57.5) (-118)  Open: -1.5
Hawai'i 44 - Utah State: 26  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
USU coming off BYE
HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -8  (SP+ HAW -5)

Projected Score: USU: 25 - HAW: 33 (57)
USU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USU Travel: 3010 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-23.563.0W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.557.5L 35 - 55OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i-1.557.5L 26 - 44ON
Fri 10/17 Utah State vs San José State-3.063.5W 30 - 25UY
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+3.061.5L 14 - 33UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-10.052.5W 51 - 14OY
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+4.568.5L 26 - 29UY
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+1.550.5W 28 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Utah State vs Boise State+1.554.5L 24 - 25UY
Mon 12/22 Utah State vs Washington State-1.050.0L 21 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)30.948% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)28.748% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)2946% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)24.145% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1230.925.245.6%4.421.8234681992695.746%54%48%44%16%.24
HAW Defense1224.11742%4.150.9 - - - - - 50%50%45%40%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1228.73747.4%4.441.3 - - - - - 51%49%48%48%15%.27
HAW Offense12293144.2%3.811.621367992683.636%64%46%44%19%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1227:1922.540%50%7.873.81.81.362.3128.1
Hawai'i1230:1920.837%55%870.31.60.95.72.3125.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1246% (102)48% (24)35.1199.35.721 (59).26 (13)3.41 (12)65% (117)8% (39)1.11 (18)
HAW Defense1250% (57)45% (85) - - - - .16 (90)3.27 (108)79% (103)10% (74)0.97 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1251% (69)48% (112) - - - - .25 (124)3.45 (128)76% (85)10% (70)0.96 (56)
HAW Offense1236% (134)46% (45)27.8993.67 (131).13 (68)3.29 (26)80% (23)11% (88)0.83 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1254% (36)44% (37)24.538.2269.17.11129 (12)17 (127).25 (69)1.5 (118)29% (30)33% (54).4 (38)8% (124)2.1 (31)
HAW Defense1250% (79)40% (58) - - - - - - 6 (109).22 (58)1.4 (19)31% (82)30% (63).31 (72)6% (73)1.8 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1249% (64)48% (123) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (106)1.5 (30)27% (129)32% (97).32 (75)5% (99)1.8 (21)
HAW Offense1264% (1)44% (50)23.840.1268.26.711.325 (31)15 (123).21 (92)1.4 (130)32% (80)33% (49).31 (81)8% (127)2 (94)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -16.87  #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59  #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46  #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00  #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1  #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -16.87   Hawai'i: -1.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -3.1   Hawai'i: 1.7




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -1.87  #104
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 7.60  #105
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 18.04  #97
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 33
Utah State 25


Projected Total Points: 57
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Hawai'i44Utah State26Utah State -1.5Hawai'i57.5Over
202411/16Utah State55Hawai'i10Hawai'i -2.5Utah State62.0Over
202211/12Hawai'i34Utah State41Utah State -10Hawai'i55.0Over
202110/30Utah State51Hawai'i31Utah State -3.5Utah State66.0Over
201811/03Hawai'i17Utah State56Utah State -19Utah State71.0Over
201711/18Utah State38Hawai'i0Utah State -10.5Utah State56.5Under
201411/01Hawai'i14Utah State35Utah State -3Utah State41.5Over
201311/02Utah State47Hawai'i10Utah State -21Utah State0
201111/06Hawai'i31Utah State35
201010/23Utah State7Hawai'i45
200911/07Hawai'i49Utah State36
200811/01Utah State30Hawai'i14
200710/07Hawai'i52Utah State37
200611/04Utah State10Hawai'i63
200511/12Hawai'i50Utah State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i626 Overs
Utah State961 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 66 - 23 - 03 - 2
Road Teams6 - 92 - 62 - 30 - 3

(#124) USU at (#104) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSUHAW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #124 #104
SP+SP+ #79 #68
Perf GradeGrade #97 #96
OffenseOff #87 #96
DefenseDef #85 #93
Spec TeamsST #121 #44
TalentTal #118 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Utah State Notes
(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
Utah State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffHAW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #87 #93
SuccessSuc #31 #71
ExplosiveExp #59 #35
PPAPPA #34 #81
PowerPwr #111 #97
SP+SP+ #53 #69
Pts POPPO #24 #103
HavocHav #81 #74
Utah State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #68 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #85
Run ExplRExp #18 #62
PPAExp #13 #90
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #108
Stuff RateStuff #46 #96
TackleTak -  #130
Utah State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #61 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #37 #58
Pass ExplPExl #118 #19
PPAExp #69 #58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #98 #34
F7 HavocF7 #39 #74
DB HavocDB #124 #73
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffUSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #96 #85
SuccessSuc #52 #122
ExplosiveExp #120 #42
PPAPPA #82 #119
PowerPwr #105 #130
SP+SP+ #66 #98
Pts POPPO #81 #122
HavocHav #117 #81
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffUSU Def
Run GameRun #105 #69
Run SuccessRSuc #45 #112
Run ExplRExp #124 #56
PPAExp #68 #124
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #26 #128
Stuff RateStuff #59 #95
TackleTak -  #111
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffUSU Def
Pass GamePass #38 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #50 #123
Pass ExplPExl #130 #30
PPAExp #92 #106
Pass Block/RushP Blk #105 #110
F7 HavocF7 #88 #70
DB HavocDB #127 #99
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Utah State 1.5 (57.5)
Hawai'i won vs Utah State this year (44-26)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Utah State last year (44-26)
Utah State beat Hawai'i in 2024 (55-10)

  
USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes21135659%28021857.9
Jacob Conover243962%323408.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Barnes189740103.958
Miles Davis (Tr)13173285.664
Javen Jacobs (Tr)6542956.658
Noah White259303.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)60925515.454
Brady Boyd (Tr)46743816.253
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4337938.830
Anthony Garcia (Tr)20348217.474

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller11810883
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)1103208
Bronson Olevao888463
Noah Avinger (Tr)8141110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller11810883
Bronson Olevao888463
Tyree Morris (Tr)466411
Chris Joe416431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger (Tr)8141110
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)1103208
Bryson Taylor (Tr)322015

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jamih Otis543040
Jalen Smith543102
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006