Utah State at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (11:59 PM EDT)
Utah State -1.5 (57.5) (-118) Open: -1.5
Hawai'i 44 - Utah State: 26 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

Wind: 20.6 MPH
USU coming off BYE
HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -2.5 (SP+ HAW -1)
Projected Score: USU: 28 - HAW: 30 (58)
USU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USU Travel: 3010 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Hawai'i vs Stanford	-1.5	53.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 8/30	Hawai'i at Arizona	+13.5	55.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/6	Hawai'i vs Sam Houston	-7.0	47.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Hawai'i vs Portland State	-35.5	54.5	W 23 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/20	Hawai'i vs Fresno State	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Hawai'i at Air Force	+7.0	52.5	W 44 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Hawai'i vs Utah State	+1.5	57.5	W 44 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Hawai'i at Colorado State	+2.5	53.5	W 31 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Hawai'i at San José State	+2.5	55.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/8	Hawai'i vs San Diego State	+6.5	48.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21	Hawai'i at UNLV	+2.5	64.5	L 10 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/29	Hawai'i vs Wyoming	-8.5	45.0	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Wed 12/24	Hawai'i vs California	-1.5	50.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#48 (.2)	41% (91)	30.9	42% (87)	2.87 (82)	158	41% (83)	232	4.49 (18)	#111 (.22)	43% (91)	28.7	45% (100)	42% (70)	3.77 (75)	54.5	0.8	1.1
HAW	#62 (.18)	41% (88)	29	38% (118)	2.8 (98)	98	44% (49)	267	3.77 (61)	#72 (.17)	42% (67)	24.1	43% (74)	40% (58)	3.35 (41)	61.5	1.3	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	40.9%	4.49	0.8	20	390	158	232	4.9	47%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.2
HAW Defense	13	24.1	17	41.6%	3.35	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	43%	40%	16%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	43.4%	3.77	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	13%	.22
HAW Offense	13	29	31	41.2%	3.77	1.3	19	365	98	267	3.7	37%	62%	38%	44%	12%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	25:22	19.6	35%	54%	7.1	54.5	0.8	1.1	4.2	2.1	1	28.2
Hawai'i	13	29:37	18.6	45%	53%	7.1	61.5	1.3	1.1	4.6	2.2	3	29.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	47% (96)	42% (87)	32.2	158.3	4.9	24 (40)	.19 (33)	2.87 (82)	71% (74)	11% (119)	1.16 (9)
HAW Defense	13	46% (26)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.1 (66)	3.21 (119)	81% (124)	9% (82)	0.97 (76)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	47% (30)	45% (100)	-	-	-	-	.21 (124)	3.18 (116)	70% (59)	7% (127)	1.04 (105)
HAW Offense	13	37% (133)	38% (118)	26.3	97.5	3.7	8 (122)	.02 (118)	2.8 (98)	59% (131)	7% (13)	0.91 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (83)	17.5	28.9	232	8	13.2	24 (14)	4 (7)	.24 (70)	1.5 (68)	33% (98)	31% (56)	.36 (48)	5% (30)	2.1 (62)
HAW Defense	13	52% (110)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.25 (71)	1.6 (77)	34% (36)	31% (82)	.42 (124)	7% (41)	2.2 (118)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	52% (111)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (38)	.24 (61)	1.5 (26)	29% (111)	33% (115)	.37 (109)	6% (59)	1.9 (27)
HAW Offense	13	62% (3)	44% (49)	24.3	37.8	267.4	7.1	11	26 (14)	12 (127)	.31 (47)	1.6 (61)	34% (113)	33% (31)	.37 (41)	5% (39)	2.2 (17)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -9.09 #104
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.21 #71
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.30 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #74
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #51
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.09 Hawai'i: -1.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -0.3 Hawai'i: 0.9

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -1.96 #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56 #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38 #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 30
Utah State 28

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 35
Utah State 26

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 32
Utah State 25

Total Points: 57

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Hawai'i	44	Utah State	26	Utah State -1.5	Hawai'i	57.5	Over
2024	11/16	Utah State	55	Hawai'i	10	Hawai'i -2.5	Utah State	62.0	Over
2022	11/12	Hawai'i	34	Utah State	41	Utah State -10	Hawai'i	55.0	Over
2021	10/30	Utah State	51	Hawai'i	31	Utah State -3.5	Utah State	66.0	Over
2018	11/03	Hawai'i	17	Utah State	56	Utah State -19	Utah State	71.0	Over
2017	11/18	Utah State	38	Hawai'i	0	Utah State -10.5	Utah State	56.5	Under
2014	11/01	Hawai'i	14	Utah State	35	Utah State -3	Utah State	41.5	Over
2013	11/02	Utah State	47	Hawai'i	10	Utah State -21	Utah State	0
2011	11/06	Hawai'i	31	Utah State	35
2010	10/23	Utah State	7	Hawai'i	45
2009	11/07	Hawai'i	49	Utah State	36
2008	11/01	Utah State	30	Hawai'i	14
2007	10/07	Hawai'i	52	Utah State	37
2006	11/04	Utah State	10	Hawai'i	63
2005	11/12	Hawai'i	50	Utah State	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	6	2	6 Overs
Utah State	9	6	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	6 - 2	3 - 0	3 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 9	2 - 6	2 - 3	0 - 3

(#104) USU at (#108) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	HAW
Power RatePwr	#104	#108
SP+SP+	#74	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#90	#100
OffenseOff	#80	#107
DefenseDef	#80	#96
Spec TeamsST	#114	#71
TalentTal	#118	#125
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Hawai'i Notes(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	HAW Def
Perf GradePerf	#80	#96
SuccessSuc	#91	#67
ExplosiveExp	#19	#87
PPAPPA	#48	#72
PowerPwr	#71	#87
SP+SP+	#51	#65
Pts POPPO	#18	#41
HavocHav	#88	#63

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#81	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#74
Run ExplRExp	#9	#76
PPAExp	#33	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#117
TackleTak	-	#128

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#77
PPAExp	#70	#71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#29
F7 HavocF7	#119	#82
DB HavocDB	#30	#41

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#107	#80
SuccessSuc	#88	#91
ExplosiveExp	#29	#63
PPAPPA	#62	#111
PowerPwr	#118	#120
SP+SP+	#75	#91
Pts POPPO	#61	#75
HavocHav	#16	#113

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#111	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#100
Run ExplRExp	#90	#105
PPAExp	#118	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#98	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#110
TackleTak	-	#106

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#26
PPAExp	#47	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#110
F7 HavocF7	#13	#127
DB HavocDB	#39	#59

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 21 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Utah State 1.5 (57.5)
Hawai'i won vs Utah State this year (44-26)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Hawai'i last year (55-10)
Utah State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (41-34)

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	40	60%	323	4	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Ike Larsen	56	3	0	1	5

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Micah Alejado	285	430	66%	3106	24	9	7.2
Luke Weaver	63	105	60%	628	6	3	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	122	559	3	4.6	43
Cam Barfield	80	371	4	4.6	41
Micah Alejado	81	105	1	1.3	30
Christian Vaughn	19	97	0	5.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)	49	963	12	19.7	78
Pofele Ashlock	76	827	8	10.9	47
Brandon White (Tr)	38	399	2	10.5	46
Karsyn Pupunu	33	306	0	9.3	22

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Peter Manuma	73	3	1	1	7
Jalen Smith	54	3	1	0	2
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4	0
Elijah Palmer	51	7	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	28	8	7	3
De'jon Benton (Tr)	29	9	6	7
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3
Qwyn Williams (Tr)	28	5	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Palmer	51	7	0	0	10
Peter Manuma	73	3	1	1	7
Virdel Edwards	31	1	0	0	6