Alabama at LSU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:30 PM EST)
Alabama -2.5 (57.5) (-140) Open: -2.5 | 58.5
Alabama 42 - LSU: 13 (SEC)

Crimson Tide (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ALA coming off BYE
LSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -4 (SP+ ALA -9)
Projected Score: ALA: 28 - LSU: 24 (52)
ALA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ALA Travel: 288 miles

Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALA Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Alabama vs Western Kentucky	-31.0	60.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Alabama vs South Florida	-33.5	65.5	W 42 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/14	Alabama at Wisconsin	-15.5	51.0	W 42 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Alabama vs Georgia	+2.0	50.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Alabama at Vanderbilt	-23.5	53.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/12	Alabama vs South Carolina	-21.0	50.0	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Alabama at Tennessee	-3.5	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/26	Alabama vs Missouri	-16.0	51.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Alabama at LSU	-2.5	57.5	W 42 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Alabama vs Mercer	-42.0	58.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Alabama at Oklahoma	-14.0	47.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/30	Alabama vs Auburn	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Alabama vs Michigan	-16.5	45.5	L 13 - 19	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

LSU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	LSU vs USC	-4.0	66.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	LSU vs Nicholls	-50.5	62.0	W 44 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/14	LSU at South Carolina	-7.0	50.0	W 36 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	LSU vs UCLA	-21.5	56.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/28	LSU vs South Alabama	-21.0	64.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	LSU vs Ole Miss	+3.5	64.5	W 29 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/19	LSU at Arkansas	-3.0	57.0	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	LSU at Texas A&M	+2.0	54.5	L 23 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	LSU vs Alabama	+2.5	57.5	L 13 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/16	LSU at Florida	-3.0	57.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	LSU vs Vanderbilt	-10.0	53.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	LSU vs Oklahoma	-4.5	47.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Tue 12/31	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	29.5	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19.2	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3
LSU	#1 (.52)	56% (2)	22.8	58% (1)	3.9 (1)	197	54% (3)	309	4.86 (8)	#126 (.32)	45% (105)	19.8	45% (92)	45% (113)	4.55 (126)	48.2	0.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Offense	14	29.5	26.3	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29
LSU Defense	13	19.8	16.9	44.8%	4.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	45%	16%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Defense	14	19.2	23.7	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11
LSU Offense	13	22.8	25.7	56.1%	4.86	0.5	24	506	197	309	6.3	47%	53%	58%	54%	11%	.52

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6
LSU	13	26:37	23.7	56%	43%	5.7	48.2	0.5	1	5.1	2	1	29.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)
LSU Defense	13	49% (51)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.24 (113)	3.22 (97)	91% (132)	10% (79)	1.07 (99)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)
LSU Offense	13	47% (95)	58% (1)	31.2	197	6.3	32 (10)	.45 (1)	3.9 (1)	69% (103)	6% (2)	1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)
LSU Defense	13	51% (86)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.41 (123)	1.7 (112)	32% (64)	34% (118)	.56 (132)	6% (54)	2.5 (132)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)
LSU Offense	13	53% (38)	54% (3)	19.6	28.2	308.6	11	15.7	41 (2)	4 (2)	.59 (4)	1.7 (33)	24% (4)	45% (1)	.74 (1)	5% (29)	2.1 (40)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 18.87 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 23.39 #33
Alabama's Defense Rating: 4.21 #20
2024 Talent Rating: 690.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 82% #1
Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #4
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.9 #6
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 18.87 LSU: 17.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 25.0 LSU: 15.9

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.92 #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
2024 Talent Rating: 539.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 56 #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 28
LSU 24

Projected Total Points: 52

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Alabama	20	LSU	9	Alabama -10.5	Alabama	49.5	Under
2024	11/09	LSU	13	Alabama	42	Alabama -2.5	Alabama	57.5	Under
2023	11/04	Alabama	42	LSU	28	Alabama -3	Alabama	61.5	Over
2022	11/05	LSU	32	Alabama	31	Alabama -13.5	LSU	56.5	Over
2021	11/06	Alabama	20	LSU	14	Alabama -29.5	LSU	66.5	Under
2020	12/05	LSU	17	Alabama	55	Alabama -29	Alabama	64.5	Over
2019	11/09	Alabama	41	LSU	46	Alabama -5	LSU	65.5	Over
2018	11/03	LSU	0	Alabama	29	Alabama -14	Alabama	51.5	Under
2017	11/04	Alabama	24	LSU	10	Alabama -20.5	LSU	45.5	Under
2016	11/05	LSU	0	Alabama	10	Alabama -7	Alabama	46.0	Under
2015	11/07	Alabama	30	LSU	16	Alabama -7	Alabama	47.0	Under
2014	11/08	LSU	13	Alabama	20	Alabama -6	Alabama	0
2013	11/09	Alabama	38	LSU	17	Alabama -9.5	Alabama	0
2012	11/03	LSU	17	Alabama	21
2011	11/05	Alabama	6	LSU	9
2011	01/09	LSU	0	Alabama	21
2010	11/06	LSU	24	Alabama	21
2009	11/07	Alabama	24	LSU	15
2008	11/08	LSU	21	Alabama	27
2007	11/03	Alabama	34	LSU	41
2006	11/11	LSU	28	Alabama	14
2005	11/12	Alabama	13	LSU	16
2004	11/13	LSU	26	Alabama	10
2003	11/15	Alabama	3	LSU	27
2001	11/03	Alabama	21	LSU	35
2000	11/03	LSU	30	Alabama	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	11	4	4 Overs
Alabama	15	9	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	5 - 8	4 - 3	1 - 5
Road Teams	14 - 12	8 - 5	5 - 1	3 - 4

(#9) ALA at (#15) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALA	LSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#9	#15
SP+SP+	#4	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#12	#55
OffenseOff	#24	#62
DefenseDef	#9	#53
Spec TeamsST	#58	#103
TalentTal	#2	#10
Blue ChipsBC%	#1	#7

Alabama Injury Report

LSU Injury Report

Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	LSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#24	#53
SuccessSuc	#39	#105
ExplosiveExp	#23	#116
PPAPPA	#20	#126
PowerPwr	#33	#59
SP+SP+	#6	#33
Pts POPPO	#17	#126
HavocHav	#51	#69

Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#14	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#92
Run ExplRExp	#79	#99
PPAExp	#39	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#103
TackleTak	-	#38

Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#112
PPAExp	#20	#123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#66	#6
F7 HavocF7	#91	#79
DB HavocDB	#6	#54

LSU on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	ALA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#9
SuccessSuc	#2	#12
ExplosiveExp	#11	#87
PPAPPA	#1	#26
PowerPwr	#38	#20
SP+SP+	#11	#8
Pts POPPO	#8	#73
HavocHav	#5	#16

LSU Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#89	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#28
Run ExplRExp	#27	#114
PPAExp	#1	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#108
TackleTak	-	#5

LSU Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#29	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#42
PPAExp	#4	#9
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#46	#49
F7 HavocF7	#2	#21
DB HavocDB	#29	#37

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'24 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Alabama 2.5 (57.5)
Alabama won at LSU this year (42-13)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat LSU last year (20-9)
Alabama beat LSU in 2024 (42-13)
Alabama beat LSU in 2023 (42-28)

ALA's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	205	319	64%	2844	16	11	8.9
Ty Simpson	14	25	56%	167	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Milroe	168	726	20	4.3	72
Jamarion Miller	145	668	7	4.6	56
Justice Haynes	79	448	7	5.7	85
Richard Young	27	146	2	5.4	62

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Williams	48	865	8	18.0	84
Germie Bernard (Tr)	50	794	2	15.9	47
C.J. Dippre	21	256	0	12.2	46
Josh Cuevas (Tr)	16	218	1	13.6	43

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Deontae Lawson	76	6	2	0	4
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Justin Jefferson	61	7	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Quandarrius Robinson	23	7	4	5	0
Tim Keenan III	40	8	3	2	1
Tim Smith	35	4	2	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Domani Jackson (Tr)	51	2	0	1	7
DeVonta Smith	30	1	0	1	5

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	336	524	64%	4039	29	12	7.7
Rickie Collins	5	5	100%	35	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	138	754	6	5.5	86
Josh Williams	117	482	6	4.1	23
Kaleb Jackson	47	149	0	3.2	19
Zavion Thomas (Tr)	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Anderson	61	875	5	14.3	76
Kyren Lacy	58	866	9	14.9	35
Mason Taylor	55	546	2	9.9	33
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	42	480	0	11.4	34

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)	52	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Savion Jones	40	7	4	8	2
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Dominick McKinley	7	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Stamps	50	0	0	2	11
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Zy Alexander	33	3	1	0	4