LSU at Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview
LSU logo LSU Tigers at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
LSU -3 (57.0) (-155)  Open: -5.5
Florida 27 - LSU: 16  (SEC)

 
Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Florida -0.5  (SP+ LSU -2)
Projected Score: LSU: 28 - FLA: 28 (56)
LSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 531 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 5) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
LSU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1 LSU vs USC-4.066.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 9/7 LSU vs Nicholls-50.562.0W 44 - 21ON
Sat 9/14 LSU at South Carolina-7.050.0W 36 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 LSU vs UCLA-21.556.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/28 LSU vs South Alabama-21.064.5W 42 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 LSU vs Ole Miss+3.564.5W 29 - 26UY
Sat 10/19 LSU at Arkansas-3.057.0W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 LSU at Texas A&M+2.054.5L 23 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 LSU vs Alabama+2.557.5L 13 - 42UN
Sat 11/16 LSU at Florida-3.057.0L 16 - 27UN
Sat 11/23 LSU vs Vanderbilt-10.053.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 LSU vs Oklahoma-4.547.5W 37 - 17OY
Tue 12/31 LSU vs Baylor+3.062.5W 44 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Florida vs Miami+2.554.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/7 Florida vs Samford-38.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/14 Florida vs Texas A&M+4.547.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 Florida at Mississippi State-6.558.0W 45 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Florida vs UCF+1.062.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/12 Florida at Tennessee+13.554.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 10/19 Florida vs Kentucky+2.542.5W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Florida vs Georgia+14.552.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 11/9 Florida at Texas+24.548.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida vs LSU+3.057.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Florida vs Ole Miss+13.057.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Florida at Florida State-17.545.5W 31 - 11UY
Fri 12/20 Florida vs Tulane-10.050.5W 33 - 8UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)30.542% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)24.341% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1330.527.344.9%3.991.2223991082914.139%61%42%47%13%.25
FLA Defense1323.12143.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense1324.32741.1%3.441 - - - - - 51%49%41%41%18%.21
FLA Offense1328.329.343%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1329:4722.150%50%5.845.71.215.12.5127.9
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1339% (128)42% (89)26.4108.24.114 (98).12 (79)2.92 (90)82% (13)6% (5)0.89 (103)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1351% (67)41% (54) - - - - .18 (97)2.94 (55)84% (125)12% (29)1.23 (132)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1361% (7)47% (24)24.538.4290.87.611.926 (26)11 (72).33 (37)1.5 (96)33% (89)37% (16).42 (28)7% (97)2 (84)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1349% (69)41% (73) - - - - - - 5 (117).25 (75)1.6 (68)35% (28)31% (76).36 (93)7% (41)2.2 (104)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 14.94  #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07  #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72  #59
2024 Talent Rating: 924.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 56%  #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8  #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 14.94   Florida: 15.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 15.9   Florida: 13.8




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.705  #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48  #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04  #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46  #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


LSU Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 28
LSU 28


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida 32
LSU 26

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Florida 27
LSU 26

Total Points: 53
Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13LSU20Florida10LSU -5.5LSU47.5Under
202411/16Florida27LSU16LSU -3Florida57.0Under
202311/11LSU52Florida35LSU -14LSU68.5Over
202210/15Florida35LSU45Florida -2LSU51.5Over
202110/16LSU49Florida42Florida -12.5LSU61.0Over
202012/12Florida34LSU37Florida -23LSU65.5Over
201910/12LSU42Florida28LSU -14Push55.5Over
201810/06Florida27LSU19LSU -1Florida44.0Over
201710/07Florida16LSU17LSU -1.5Florida44.0Under
201611/19LSU10Florida16LSU -10.5Florida38.0Under
201510/17LSU35Florida28LSU -6.5LSU43.5Over
201410/11Florida27LSU30LSU -1LSU0
201310/12LSU17Florida6LSU -5LSU0
201210/06Florida14LSU6
201110/08LSU41Florida11
201010/09Florida29LSU33
200910/10LSU3Florida13
200810/11Florida51LSU21
200710/06LSU28Florida24
200610/07Florida23LSU10
200510/15LSU21Florida17
200410/09Florida21LSU24
200310/11LSU7Florida19
200210/12Florida7LSU36
200110/06LSU15Florida44
200010/06Florida41LSU9
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1047 Overs
LSU1684 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 118 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams11 - 154 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#15) LSU at (#19) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLSUFLA
Power RatePwr #15 #19
SP+SP+ #15 #20
Perf GradeGrade #55 #29
OffenseOff #62 #25
DefenseDef #53 #63
Spec TeamsST #103 #50
TalentTal #16 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #7 #11
LSU on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
LSU OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #62 #63
SuccessSuc #38 #95
ExplosiveExp #57 #32
PPAPPA #30 #53
PowerPwr #38 #44
SP+SP+ #11 #23
Pts POPPO #60 #14
HavocHav #26 #36
LSU Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
LSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #89 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #118
Run ExplRExp #103 #10
PPAExp #79 #73
Run BlockR Blk #95 -
OL YdsOLY #90 #78
Stuff RateStuff #52 #84
TackleTak -  #66
LSU Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
LSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #29 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #44
Pass ExplPExl #96 #87
PPAExp #37 #34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #46 #55
F7 HavocF7 #5 #37
DB HavocDB #97 #43
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatFLA OffLSU Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #53
SuccessSuc #64 #60
ExplosiveExp #93 #118
PPAPPA #72 #92
PowerPwr #52 #59
SP+SP+ #37 #33
Pts POPPO #46 #30
HavocHav #68 #30
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #79 #96
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #54
Run ExplRExp #82 #132
PPAExp #63 #97
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #55
Stuff RateStuff #77 #50
TackleTak -  #38
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatFLA OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #62 #78
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #73
Pass ExplPExl #48 #68
PPAExp #73 #75
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #6
F7 HavocF7 #56 #29
DB HavocDB #90 #41
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73°
Rematch from Week 12
LSU 3.0 (57.0)
Florida won vs LSU this year (27-16)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat LSU last year (27-16)
LSU beat Florida in 2023 (52-35)
LSU beat Florida in 2022 (45-35)

  
LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier33652464%403929127.7
Rickie Collins55100%35007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham13875465.586
Josh Williams11748264.123
Kaleb Jackson4714903.219
Zavion Thomas (Tr)97608.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Anderson61875514.376
Kyren Lacy58866914.935
Mason Taylor5554629.933
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Whit Weeks1118344
Greg Penn III835280
Bradyn Swinson5713983
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)522102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradyn Swinson5713983
Savion Jones407482
Whit Weeks1118344
Dominick McKinley73310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Stamps5000211
Whit Weeks1118344
Zy Alexander333104

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Graham Mertz729477%791628.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Montrell Johnson10059365.971
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)39806420.777
Chimere Dike (Tr)42783218.644
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Shemar James644223
Jack Pyburn604100
Jordan Castell551009
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Jason Marshall Jr.202034