USC at LSU - 2024 Matchup Preview
USC logo   USC Trojans vs LSU Tigers  LSU logo
Sunday, September 1st 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
LSU -4 (66.5) (-185)  Open: -6.0 | 62.5
USC 27 - LSU: 20  (Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic)

 
Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: LSU -6  (SP+ LSU -4)
Projected Score: USC: 26 - LSU: 32 (58)
LSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USC Travel: 2707 miles
Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1 USC vs LSU+4.066.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/7 USC vs Utah State-30.562.5W 48 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 USC at Michigan-4.044.0L 24 - 27ON
Sat 9/28 USC vs Wisconsin-14.050.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/5 USC at Minnesota-8.545.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 USC vs Penn State+3.551.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 10/19 USC at Maryland-6.556.5L 28 - 29ON
Fri 10/25 USC vs Rutgers-14.057.0W 42 - 20OY
Sat 11/2 USC at Washington-2.055.0L 21 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 USC vs Nebraska-6.551.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 USC at UCLA-5.053.0W 19 - 13UY
Sat 11/30 USC vs Notre Dame+6.552.5L 35 - 49ON
Fri 12/27 USC vs Texas A&M+3.556.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
LSU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1 LSU vs USC-4.066.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 9/7 LSU vs Nicholls-50.562.0W 44 - 21ON
Sat 9/14 LSU at South Carolina-7.050.0W 36 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 LSU vs UCLA-21.556.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/28 LSU vs South Alabama-21.064.5W 42 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 LSU vs Ole Miss+3.564.5W 29 - 26UY
Sat 10/19 LSU at Arkansas-3.057.0W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 LSU at Texas A&M+2.054.5L 23 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 LSU vs Alabama+2.557.5L 13 - 42UN
Sat 11/16 LSU at Florida-3.057.0L 16 - 27UN
Sat 11/23 LSU vs Vanderbilt-10.053.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 LSU vs Oklahoma-4.547.5W 37 - 17OY
Tue 12/31 LSU vs Baylor+3.062.5W 44 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#6 (.39)47% (15)35.848% (20)3.19 (52)13447% (21)3334.99 (4)#122 (.29)46% (121)2349% (125)43% (91)3.55 (49)64.91.31.2
LSU#1 (.52)56% (2)22.858% (1)3.9 (1)19754% (3)3094.86 (8)#126 (.32)45% (105)19.845% (92)45% (113)4.55 (126)48.20.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1335.827.447.5%4.991.3224671343334.841%59%48%47%14%.39
LSU Defense1319.816.944.8%4.551 - - - - - 49%51%45%45%16%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense132328.845.8%3.551.2 - - - - - 51%49%49%43%14%.29
LSU Offense1322.825.756.1%4.860.5245061973096.347%53%58%54%11%.52

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1327:3322.543%61%7.364.91.31.25.51.9330.3
LSU1326:3723.756%43%5.748.20.515.12129.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1341% (123)48% (20)27.8133.64.833 (8).29 (8)3.19 (52)78% (28)10% (65)1.2 (2)
LSU Defense1349% (51)45% (92) - - - - .24 (113)3.22 (97)91% (132)10% (79)1.07 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1351% (83)49% (125) - - - - .29 (128)3.31 (110)73% (64)10% (64)1.07 (100)
LSU Offense1347% (95)58% (1)31.21976.332 (10).45 (1)3.9 (1)69% (103)6% (2)1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1359% (10)47% (21)24.235.53339.413.837 (4)6 (14).47 (14)1.7 (20)29% (22)37% (14).65 (4)4% (15)2.3 (12)
LSU Defense1351% (86)45% (113) - - - - - - 10 (67).41 (123)1.7 (112)32% (64)34% (118).56 (132)6% (54)2.5 (132)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1349% (60)43% (91) - - - - - - 7 (111).32 (98)1.7 (90)31% (87)34% (115).4 (108)4% (129)2.1 (92)
LSU Offense1353% (38)54% (3)19.628.2308.61115.741 (2)4 (2).59 (4)1.7 (33)24% (4)45% (1).74 (1)5% (29)2.1 (40)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42  #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62  #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19  #74
2024 Talent Rating: 494.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41%  #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6  #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42   LSU: 15.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9   LSU: 15.9




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.42  #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07  #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72  #59
2024 Talent Rating: 539.00  #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 56  #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8  #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 32
USC 26

Projected Total Points: 58
LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/01LSU20USC27LSU -4USC66.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU000 Overs
USC111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#37) USC at (#15) LSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCLSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #37 #15
SP+SP+ #23 #15
Perf GradeGrade #44 #55
OffenseOff #36 #62
DefenseDef #74 #53
Spec TeamsST #65 #103
TalentTal #17 #10
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #7
USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season
(10/16) Best LB Gentry injured, will redshirt TY
USC Injury Report
USC on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffLSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #36 #53
SuccessSuc #15 #105
ExplosiveExp #2 #116
PPAPPA #6 #126
PowerPwr #60 #59
SP+SP+ #15 #33
Pts POPPO #4 #126
HavocHav #31 #69
USC Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #6 #96
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #92
Run ExplRExp #2 #99
PPAExp #8 #113
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #52 #97
Stuff RateStuff #88 #103
TackleTak -  #38
USC Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #78
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #113
Pass ExplPExl #20 #112
PPAExp #14 #123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #114 #6
F7 HavocF7 #65 #79
DB HavocDB #15 #54
LSU on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatLSU OffUSC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #62 #74
SuccessSuc #2 #121
ExplosiveExp #11 #96
PPAPPA #1 #122
PowerPwr #38 #74
SP+SP+ #11 #48
Pts POPPO #8 #49
HavocHav #5 #116
LSU Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
LSU OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #89 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #125
Run ExplRExp #27 #100
PPAExp #1 #128
Run BlockR Blk #95 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #110
Stuff RateStuff #4 #79
TackleTak -  #19
LSU Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatLSU OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #29 #48
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #91
Pass ExplPExl #33 #90
PPAExp #4 #98
Pass Block/RushP Blk #46 #85
F7 HavocF7 #2 #64
DB HavocDB #29 #129
Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
LSU -4.0 (66.5)
USC won at LSU this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
USC beat LSU in 2024 (27-20)

  
USC's OC Josh Henson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss23336264%25551897.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)10116960%12011167.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks198113395.765
Quinten Joyner6347837.675
Bryan Jackson3618815.223
A'Marion Peterson166514.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon52764314.770
Ja'Kobi Lane435251212.233
Zachariah Branch47503110.742
Kyron Ware-Hudson38462312.239

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)945221
Mason Cobb723003
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Akili Arnold (Tr)591111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby285321
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)945221
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Eric Gentry337201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)270005
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Mason Cobb723003

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier33652464%403929127.7
Rickie Collins55100%35007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham13875465.586
Josh Williams11748264.123
Kaleb Jackson4714903.219
Zavion Thomas (Tr)97608.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Anderson61875514.376
Kyren Lacy58866914.935
Mason Taylor5554629.933
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Whit Weeks1118344
Greg Penn III835280
Bradyn Swinson5713983
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)522102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradyn Swinson5713983
Savion Jones407482
Whit Weeks1118344
Dominick McKinley73310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Stamps5000211
Whit Weeks1118344
Zy Alexander333104