USC at LSU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Sunday, September 1st 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
LSU -4 (66.5) (-185) Open: -6.0 | 62.5
USC 27 - LSU: 20 (Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic)

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: LSU -6 (SP+ LSU -4)
Projected Score: USC: 30 - LSU: 36 (65)
LSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USC Travel: 1599 miles, 2 hrs behind

Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

LSU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	LSU vs USC	-4.0	66.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	LSU vs Nicholls	-50.5	62.0	W 44 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/14	LSU at South Carolina	-7.0	50.0	W 36 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	LSU vs UCLA	-21.5	56.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/28	LSU vs South Alabama	-21.0	64.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	LSU vs Ole Miss	+3.5	64.5	W 29 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/19	LSU at Arkansas	-3.0	57.0	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	LSU at Texas A&M	+2.0	54.5	L 23 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	LSU vs Alabama	+2.5	57.5	L 13 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/16	LSU at Florida	-3.0	57.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	LSU vs Vanderbilt	-10.0	53.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	LSU vs Oklahoma	-4.5	47.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Tue 12/31	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)	30.5	42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)	24.3	41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)		42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)		41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	30.2	21.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24
LSU Defense	13	24.3	21.4	41.1%	3.44	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	41%	18%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18
LSU Offense	13	30.5	31.9	44.9%	3.99	1.2	22	399	108	291	4.1	39%	61%	42%	47%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7
LSU	13	29:47	22.1	50%	50%	5.8	45.7	1.2	1	5.1	2.5	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)
LSU Defense	13	51% (67)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.18 (97)	2.94 (55)	84% (125)	12% (29)	1.23 (132)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)
LSU Offense	13	39% (128)	42% (89)	26.4	108.2	4.1	14 (98)	.12 (79)	2.92 (90)	82% (13)	6% (5)	0.89 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)
LSU Defense	13	49% (69)	41% (73)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.25 (75)	1.6 (68)	35% (28)	31% (76)	.36 (93)	7% (41)	2.2 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)
LSU Offense	13	61% (7)	47% (24)	24.5	38.4	290.8	7.6	11.9	26 (26)	11 (72)	.33 (37)	1.5 (96)	33% (89)	37% (16)	.42 (28)	7% (97)	2 (84)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41% #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42 LSU: 15.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9 LSU: 15.9

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.42 #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
2024 Talent Rating: 924.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 56 #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 36
USC 30

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
LSU 45
USC 32

Total Points: 78

Based on Entire Season
LSU 27
USC 24

Total Points: 51

LSU Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.9
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/01	LSU	20	USC	27	LSU -4	USC	66.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	0	0	0 Overs
USC	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#37) USC at (#15) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	LSU
Power RatePwr	#37	#15
SP+SP+	#23	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#44	#55
OffenseOff	#36	#62
DefenseDef	#74	#53
Spec TeamsST	#65	#103
TalentTal	#17	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#7

USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	LSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#53
SuccessSuc	#11	#60
ExplosiveExp	#91	#118
PPAPPA	#41	#92
PowerPwr	#60	#59
SP+SP+	#15	#33
Pts POPPO	#85	#30
HavocHav	#101	#30

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#6	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#54
Run ExplRExp	#106	#132
PPAExp	#21	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#50
TackleTak	-	#38

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#73
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#68
PPAExp	#74	#75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#6
F7 HavocF7	#24	#29
DB HavocDB	#134	#41

LSU on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#62	#74
SuccessSuc	#38	#94
ExplosiveExp	#57	#24
PPAPPA	#30	#78
PowerPwr	#38	#74
SP+SP+	#11	#48
Pts POPPO	#60	#49
HavocHav	#26	#105

LSU Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#89	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#78
Run ExplRExp	#103	#77
PPAExp	#79	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#120
TackleTak	-	#19

LSU Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#29	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#4
PPAExp	#37	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#46	#85
F7 HavocF7	#5	#127
DB HavocDB	#97	#42

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
LSU -4.0 (66.5)
USC won at LSU this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
USC beat LSU last year (27-20)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	336	524	64%	4039	29	12	7.7
Rickie Collins	5	5	100%	35	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	138	754	6	5.5	86
Josh Williams	117	482	6	4.1	23
Kaleb Jackson	47	149	0	3.2	19
Zavion Thomas (Tr)	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Anderson	61	875	5	14.3	76
Kyren Lacy	58	866	9	14.9	35
Mason Taylor	55	546	2	9.9	33
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	42	480	0	11.4	34

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)	52	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Savion Jones	40	7	4	8	2
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Dominick McKinley	7	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Stamps	50	0	0	2	11
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Zy Alexander	33	3	1	0	4