LSU at Arkansas - 2024 Matchup Preview

LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
LSU -3 (57.0) (-148) Open: -9.5
LSU 34 - Arkansas: 10 (SEC)

Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARK coming off BYE
Our Line: LSU -2.5 (SP+ LSU -5)
Projected Score: LSU: 29 - ARK: 26 (55)
LSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 427 miles

Razorbacks (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LSU Players
ARK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	LSU vs USC	-4.0	66.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	LSU vs Nicholls	-50.5	62.0	W 44 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/14	LSU at South Carolina	-7.0	50.0	W 36 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	LSU vs UCLA	-21.5	56.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/28	LSU vs South Alabama	-21.0	64.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	LSU vs Ole Miss	+3.5	64.5	W 29 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/19	LSU at Arkansas	-3.0	57.0	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	LSU at Texas A&M	+2.0	54.5	L 23 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	LSU vs Alabama	+2.5	57.5	L 13 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/16	LSU at Florida	-3.0	57.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	LSU vs Vanderbilt	-10.0	53.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	LSU vs Oklahoma	-4.5	47.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Tue 12/31	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-50.5	60.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arkansas at Oklahoma State	+10.5	60.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Arkansas vs UAB	-23.5	60.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/21	Arkansas at Auburn	+2.5	53.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	50.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arkansas vs Tennessee	+14.0	57.5	W 19 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Arkansas vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arkansas at Mississippi State	-7.5	55.0	W 58 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Arkansas vs Ole Miss	+8.0	54.0	L 31 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Arkansas vs Texas	+13.0	57.5	L 10 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech	-23.5	48.5	W 35 - 14	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arkansas at Missouri	+3.5	51.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/27	Arkansas vs Texas Tech	+3.5	52.5	W 39 - 26	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	#1 (.52)	56% (2)	22.8	58% (1)	3.9 (1)	197	54% (3)	309	4.86 (8)	#126 (.32)	45% (105)	19.8	45% (92)	45% (113)	4.55 (126)	48.2	0.5	1
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	32.9	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	33.8	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	13	22.8	16.4	56.1%	4.86	0.5	24	506	197	309	6.3	47%	53%	58%	54%	11%	.52
ARK Defense	12	33.8	35	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	13	19.8	20.4	44.8%	4.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	45%	16%	.32
ARK Offense	12	32.9	30.5	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	13	26:37	23.7	56%	43%	5.7	48.2	0.5	1	5.1	2	1	29.2
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	13	47% (95)	58% (1)	31.2	197	6.3	32 (10)	.45 (1)	3.9 (1)	69% (103)	6% (2)	1.08 (27)
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	13	49% (51)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.24 (113)	3.22 (97)	91% (132)	10% (79)	1.07 (99)
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	13	53% (38)	54% (3)	19.6	28.2	308.6	11	15.7	41 (2)	4 (2)	.59 (4)	1.7 (33)	24% (4)	45% (1)	.74 (1)	5% (29)	2.1 (40)
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	13	51% (86)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.41 (123)	1.7 (112)	32% (64)	34% (118)	.56 (132)	6% (54)	2.5 (132)
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 14.94 #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
2024 Talent Rating: 539.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 56% #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 14.94 Arkansas: 13.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 15.9 Arkansas: 11.0

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 13.08 #30
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 24.60 #22
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.73 #60
2024 Talent Rating: 416.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Arkansas's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Arkansas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #24
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 29
Arkansas 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35

Arkansas's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	LSU	23	Arkansas	22	LSU -4	Arkansas	58.5	Under
2024	10/19	Arkansas	10	LSU	34	LSU -3	LSU	57.0	Under
2023	09/23	LSU	34	Arkansas	31	LSU -17.5	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2022	11/12	Arkansas	10	LSU	13	LSU -5	Arkansas	59.0	Under
2021	11/13	LSU	13	Arkansas	16	Arkansas -3	NA	59.5	Under
2020	11/21	Arkansas	24	LSU	27	LSU -1.5	LSU	64.5	Under
2019	11/23	LSU	56	Arkansas	20	LSU -42	Arkansas	69.5	Over
2018	11/10	Arkansas	17	LSU	24	LSU -12.5	Arkansas	49.5	Under
2017	11/11	LSU	33	Arkansas	10	LSU -19	LSU	54.5	Under
2016	11/12	Arkansas	10	LSU	38	LSU -7	LSU	46.5	Over
2015	11/14	LSU	14	Arkansas	31	LSU -9	Arkansas	54.0	Under
2014	11/15	Arkansas	17	LSU	0	Arkansas -1.5	Arkansas	0
2013	11/29	LSU	31	Arkansas	27	LSU -24.5	Arkansas	0
2012	11/23	Arkansas	13	LSU	20
2011	11/25	LSU	41	Arkansas	17
2010	11/27	Arkansas	31	LSU	23
2009	11/28	LSU	33	Arkansas	30
2008	11/28	Arkansas	31	LSU	30
2007	11/23	LSU	48	Arkansas	50
2006	11/24	Arkansas	26	LSU	31
2005	11/25	LSU	19	Arkansas	17
2004	11/26	Arkansas	14	LSU	43
2003	11/28	LSU	55	Arkansas	24
2001	11/23	LSU	41	Arkansas	38
2000	11/23	Arkansas	14	LSU	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas	7	8	3 Overs
LSU	18	4	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	4 - 8	2 - 5	2 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 14	8 - 4	3 - 2	5 - 2

(#15) LSU at (#30) ARK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LSU	ARK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#15	#30
SP+SP+	#15	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#55	#40
OffenseOff	#62	#29
DefenseDef	#53	#71
Spec TeamsST	#103	#75
TalentTal	#10	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#26

LSU Injury Report

Arkansas Injury Report

LSU on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	ARK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#71
SuccessSuc	#2	#40
ExplosiveExp	#11	#95
PPAPPA	#1	#42
PowerPwr	#38	#60
SP+SP+	#11	#33
Pts POPPO	#8	#79
HavocHav	#5	#28

LSU Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#89	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#48
Run ExplRExp	#27	#29
PPAExp	#1	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#53
TackleTak	-	#50

LSU Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#29	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#130
PPAExp	#4	#65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#46	#74
F7 HavocF7	#2	#29
DB HavocDB	#29	#42

Arkansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	LSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#53
SuccessSuc	#105	#105
ExplosiveExp	#80	#116
PPAPPA	#75	#126
PowerPwr	#22	#59
SP+SP+	#40	#33
Pts POPPO	#35	#126
HavocHav	#120	#69

Arkansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#92
Run ExplRExp	#115	#99
PPAExp	#70	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#62	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#103
TackleTak	-	#38

Arkansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#112
PPAExp	#80	#123
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#81	#6
F7 HavocF7	#130	#79
DB HavocDB	#32	#54

Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
LSU 3.0 (57.0)
LSU won at Arkansas this year (34-10)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Arkansas last year (23-22)
LSU beat Arkansas in 2024 (34-10)
LSU beat Arkansas in 2023 (34-31)

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	336	524	64%	4039	29	12	7.7
Rickie Collins	5	5	100%	35	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	138	754	6	5.5	86
Josh Williams	117	482	6	4.1	23
Kaleb Jackson	47	149	0	3.2	19
Zavion Thomas (Tr)	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Anderson	61	875	5	14.3	76
Kyren Lacy	58	866	9	14.9	35
Mason Taylor	55	546	2	9.9	33
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	42	480	0	11.4	34

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)	52	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Savion Jones	40	7	4	8	2
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Dominick McKinley	7	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Stamps	50	0	0	2	11
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Zy Alexander	33	3	1	0	4

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green (Tr)	230	381	60%	3153	15	9	8.3
Malachi Singleton	21	28	75%	358	1	0	12.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quinden Jackson (Tr)	149	790	15	5.3	46
Taylen Green (Tr)	156	602	8	3.9	41
Braylen Russell	67	354	3	5.3	75
Rashod Dubinion	56	335	2	6.0	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong	78	1140	1	14.6	43
Isaac Teslaa	28	545	3	19.5	75
Isaiah Sategna	37	490	1	13.2	58
Luke Hasz	26	324	4	12.5	43

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavian Sorey Jr. (Tr)	99	10	2	3	1
Doneiko Slaughter (Tr)	78	3	1	0	6
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)	70	3	2	3	1
TJ Metcalf	56	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	49	10	7	9	3
Brad Spence	55	6	5	1	1
Eric Gregory	43	5	3	5	1
Xavian Sorey Jr. (Tr)	99	10	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Metcalf	56	1	0	7
Marquise Robinson (Tr)	35	0	0	7
Doneiko Slaughter (Tr)	78	3	1	6