Ball State at Buffalo - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Buffalo -3.5 (55.5) (-162) Open: -5.0
Buffalo 51 - Ball State: 48 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BUFF coming off BYE
Our Line: Buffalo -15.5 (SP+ BUFF -16)
Projected Score: BALL: 22 - BUFF: 37 (59)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 393 miles

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	25.3	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	40.1	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)	28.8	38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)	26.4	43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	25.3	23	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14
BUFF Defense	13	26.4	22.3	42.8%	3.84	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	43%	18%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	40.1	44.9	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32
BUFF Offense	13	28.8	38.2	39.6%	4.22	1	17	329	153	176	4.2	55%	45%	38%	42%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3
Buffalo	13	26:20	17.2	34%	52%	4	39.3	1	1.5	6.3	2.2	2	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)
BUFF Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.08 (47)	3.01 (68)	63% (16)	12% (35)	0.94 (45)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)
BUFF Offense	13	55% (36)	38% (115)	36.2	153.3	4.2	23 (52)	.08 (96)	2.7 (117)	61% (122)	10% (84)	1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)
BUFF Defense	13	53% (109)	43% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.28 (91)	1.7 (97)	32% (58)	29% (40)	.18 (18)	7% (38)	2.2 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)
BUFF Offense	13	45% (99)	42% (70)	14.2	25.2	175.8	7	12.4	19 (65)	6 (10)	.29 (47)	1.5 (80)	33% (97)	31% (75)	.34 (66)	6% (89)	1.9 (106)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09 Buffalo: -5.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 Buffalo: -4.0

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 37
Ball State 22

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Buffalo 31
Ball State 29

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Buffalo 38
Ball State 24

Total Points: 62

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/12	Buffalo	51	Ball State	48	Buffalo -3.5	Ball State	55.5	Over
2021	11/23	Ball State	20	Buffalo	3	Ball State -6	Ball State	59.5	Under
2020	12/18	Buffalo	28	Ball State	38	Buffalo -13	Ball State	69.5	Under
2017	11/16	Ball State	24	Buffalo	40	Buffalo -18.5	Ball State	54.5	Over
2016	10/15	Buffalo	21	Ball State	31	Ball State -9	Ball State	52.5	Under
2011	09/17	Ball State	28	Buffalo	25
2010	11/12	Buffalo	3	Ball State	20
2008	12/05	Buffalo	42	Ball State	24
2007	09/29	Ball State	49	Buffalo	14
2006	10/07	Buffalo	25	Ball State	55
2000	10/20	Buffalo	35	Ball State	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	3	0	2 Overs
Ball State	8	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 6	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 5	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#126) BALL at (#106) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	BUFF
Power RatePwr	#126	#106
SP+SP+	#126	#87
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#79
OffenseOff	#93	#96
DefenseDef	#136	#42
Spec TeamsST	#111	#110
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#93	#42
SuccessSuc	#78	#82
ExplosiveExp	#81	#97
PPAPPA	#98	#72
PowerPwr	#93	#93
SP+SP+	#103	#93
Pts POPPO	#65	#74
HavocHav	#119	#33

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#131	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#71
Run ExplRExp	#117	#45
PPAExp	#91	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#64
TackleTak	-	#18

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#97
PPAExp	#98	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#38	#90
F7 HavocF7	#99	#35
DB HavocDB	#123	#38

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BALL Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#136
SuccessSuc	#104	#118
ExplosiveExp	#41	#126
PPAPPA	#77	#128
PowerPwr	#104	#132
SP+SP+	#84	#133
Pts POPPO	#41	#133
HavocHav	#91	#116

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#116	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#103
Run ExplRExp	#17	#110
PPAExp	#96	#116
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#117	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#96	#77
TackleTak	-	#121

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#119
PPAExp	#47	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#61
F7 HavocF7	#84	#103
DB HavocDB	#89	#115

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 38°

Rematch from Week 12
Buffalo -3.5 (55.5)
Buffalo won vs Ball State this year (51-48)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Ball State last year (51-48)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5