Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls
Tuesday, November 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Buffalo -3.5 (55.5) (-162) Open: -5.0
Buffalo 51 - Ball State: 48 (Mid-American)
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
BUFF coming off BYE
Our Line: Buffalo -15.5 (SP+ BUFF -16)
Projected Score: BALL: 22 - BUFF: 37 (59)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 393 miles
Our Line: Buffalo -15.5 (SP+ BUFF -16)
Projected Score: BALL: 22 - BUFF: 37 (59)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 393 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
| Ball State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Ball State vs Missouri State | -2.5 | 50.5 | W 42 - 34 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Ball State at Miami | +36.5 | 55.5 | L 0 - 62 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +6.5 | 51.0 | L 34 - 37 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Ball State at James Madison | +22.0 | 56.5 | L 7 - 63 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +10.0 | 57.5 | L 42 - 45 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Ball State at Kent State | -3.0 | 58.0 | W 37 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Ball State at Vanderbilt | +27.5 | 57.5 | L 14 - 24 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +13.5 | 47.5 | W 25 - 23 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +12.5 | 48.5 | L 21 - 27 | U | Y | |
| Tue 11/12 | Ball State at Buffalo | +3.5 | 55.5 | L 48 - 51 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Ball State vs Bowling Green | +12.5 | 54.5 | L 13 - 38 | U | N | |
| Fri 11/29 | Ball State at Ohio | +17.5 | 51.5 | L 21 - 42 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
| Buffalo's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 30 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5 | 53.5 | L 0 - 38 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 34 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0 | 42.5 | W 23 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0 | 44.5 | L 3 - 47 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5 | 44.5 | W 30 - 15 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0 | 49.5 | L 41 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0 | 46.5 | L 16 - 47 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0 | 49.0 | W 41 - 30 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5 | 55.5 | W 51 - 48 | O | N | |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0 | 53.5 | W 37 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5 | 50.5 | W 43 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5 | 50.5 | W 26 - 7 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | #98 (.14) | 42% (78) | 25.3 | 44% (70) | 3.06 (61) | 103 | 41% (72) | 245 | 3.94 (65) | #128 (.32) | 46% (118) | 40.1 | 46% (103) | 47% (121) | 4.81 (133) | 45.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 28.8 | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 26.4 | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | #98 (.14) | 42% (78) | 44% (70) | 3.06 (61) | 103 | 41% (72) | 245 | 3.94 (65) | #128 (.32) | 46% (118) | 46% (103) | 47% (121) | 4.81 (133) | 45.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | ||
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL Offense | 12 | 25.3 | 23 | 42.1% | 3.94 | 1.2 | 20 | 348 | 103 | 245 | 3.4 | 42% | 58% | 44% | 41% | 19% | .14 |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 26.4 | 22.3 | 42.8% | 3.84 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 46% | 53% | 43% | 43% | 18% | .17 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL Defense | 12 | 40.1 | 44.9 | 46.5% | 4.81 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 52% | 46% | 47% | 13% | .32 |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 28.8 | 38.2 | 39.6% | 4.22 | 1 | 17 | 329 | 153 | 176 | 4.2 | 55% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 17% | .17 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 12 | 30:58 | 20.3 | 42% | 46% | 4.9 | 45.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 2 | 30.3 |
| Buffalo | 13 | 26:20 | 17.2 | 34% | 52% | 4 | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 31.2 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL Offense | 12 | 42% (120) | 44% (70) | 30.8 | 103.4 | 3.4 | 10 (122) | .1 (91) | 3.06 (61) | 80% (23) | 11% (99) | 0.87 (117) |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 46% (21) | 43% (71) | - | - | - | - | .08 (47) | 3.01 (68) | 63% (16) | 12% (35) | 0.94 (45) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL Defense | 12 | 47% (34) | 46% (103) | - | - | - | - | .22 (116) | 3.17 (90) | 74% (72) | 9% (103) | 1.08 (110) |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 55% (36) | 38% (115) | 36.2 | 153.3 | 4.2 | 23 (52) | .08 (96) | 2.7 (117) | 61% (122) | 10% (84) | 1.11 (17) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL Offense | 12 | 58% (16) | 41% (72) | 23.3 | 36.6 | 244.7 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 26 (26) | 11 (72) | .19 (98) | 1.6 (73) | 33% (93) | 28% (101) | .29 (88) | 8% (123) | 2.2 (15) |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 53% (109) | 43% (97) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 (39) | .28 (91) | 1.7 (97) | 32% (58) | 29% (40) | .18 (18) | 7% (38) | 2.2 (100) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL Defense | 12 | 52% (100) | 47% (121) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (93) | .44 (128) | 1.8 (119) | 33% (55) | 40% (133) | .57 (131) | 5% (115) | 2.2 (115) |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 45% (99) | 42% (70) | 14.2 | 25.2 | 175.8 | 7 | 12.4 | 19 (65) | 6 (10) | .29 (47) | 1.5 (80) | 33% (97) | 31% (75) | .34 (66) | 6% (89) | 1.9 (106) |
Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09 Buffalo: -5.765
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 Buffalo: -4.0
Ball State: -23.09 Buffalo: -5.765
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 Buffalo: -4.0
Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9
Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9
Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 37
Ball State 22
Total Points: 59
Buffalo 37
Ball State 22
Total Points: 59
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/12 | Buffalo | 51 | Ball State | 48 | Buffalo | Buffalo -3.5 | Ball State | 55.5 | Over |
| 2021 | 11/23 | Ball State | 20 | Buffalo | 3 | Ball State | Ball State -6 | Ball State | 59.5 | Under |
| 2020 | 12/18 | Buffalo | 28 | Ball State | 38 | Ball State | Buffalo -13 | Ball State | 69.5 | Under |
| 2017 | 11/16 | Ball State | 24 | Buffalo | 40 | Buffalo | Buffalo -18.5 | Ball State | 54.5 | Over |
| 2016 | 10/15 | Buffalo | 21 | Ball State | 31 | Ball State | Ball State -9 | Ball State | 52.5 | Under |
| 2011 | 09/17 | Ball State | 28 | Buffalo | 25 | Ball State | ||||
| 2010 | 11/12 | Buffalo | 3 | Ball State | 20 | Ball State | ||||
| 2008 | 12/05 | Buffalo | 42 | Ball State | 24 | Buffalo | ||||
| 2007 | 09/29 | Ball State | 49 | Buffalo | 14 | Ball State | ||||
| 2006 | 10/07 | Buffalo | 25 | Ball State | 55 | Ball State | ||||
| 2000 | 10/20 | Buffalo | 35 | Ball State | 44 | Ball State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 3 | 0 | 2 Overs |
| Ball State | 8 | 5 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 5 - 6 | 2 - 3 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 1 |
| Road Teams | 6 - 5 | 3 - 2 | 1 - 1 | 2 - 1 |
(#126) Ball State Info
Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Ball State has lost 1 straight
Ball State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 6 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )
Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
Ball State Highlights
Ball State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#120)
Ball State commits very few Penalties (#59)
Ball State Deficiencies
Ball State Can Not Run the Ball (#80)
Ball State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Ball State has a bad defense (#128)
Ball State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#77)
Ball State has a bad red zone defense (#70)
Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Ball State has lost 1 straight
Ball State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 6 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )
Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
Ball State Highlights
Ball State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#120)
Ball State commits very few Penalties (#59)
Ball State Deficiencies
Ball State Can Not Run the Ball (#80)
Ball State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Ball State has a bad defense (#128)
Ball State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#77)
Ball State has a bad red zone defense (#70)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | BUFF | BALL |
| OverallOver | #56 | #92 |
| OffenseOff | #77 | #75 |
| DefenseDef | #31 | #115 |
| Special TeamsST | #90 | #91 |
| PassingPass | #85 | #70 |
| RushingRush | #84 | #98 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #52 | #69 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #85 | #38 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #60 | #50 |
| TacklingTkl | #16 | #105 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #44 | #108 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #77 | #54 |
| Coverage DefCov | #21 | #110 |
(#106) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has won 1 straight
Buffalo has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has won 1 straight
Buffalo has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadin Semonza | 275 | 427 | 64% | 2900 | 25 | 10 | 6.8 |
| Aidan Leffler | 2 | 6 | 33% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braedon Sloan (Tr) | 150 | 597 | 4 | 4.0 | 40 |
| Vaughn Pemberton | 61 | 276 | 2 | 4.5 | 41 |
| Cam Pickett | 17 | 170 | 2 | 10.0 | 34 |
| TJ Horton | 23 | 107 | 0 | 4.7 | 17 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Koziol | 94 | 839 | 8 | 8.9 | 33 |
| Cam Pickett | 49 | 528 | 2 | 10.8 | 65 |
| Justin Bowick (Tr) | 20 | 383 | 3 | 19.2 | 57 |
| Braedon Sloan (Tr) | 29 | 329 | 1 | 11.3 | 72 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Udo (Tr) | 78 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Keionte Newson | 73 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Riley Tolsma (Tr) | 59 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Joey Stemler | 56 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Tolsma (Tr) | 59 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Brandon Berger | 38 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Sam Feeney | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Darin Conley | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Norwood (Tr) | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Keionte Newson | 73 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Brandon Berger | 38 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Ogbonna | 190 | 336 | 57% | 2381 | 19 | 5 | 7.1 |
| Gunnar Gray | 4 | 11 | 36% | 41 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Jay Henderson | 204 | 1078 | 9 | 5.3 | 68 |
| CJ Ogbonna | 122 | 346 | 8 | 2.8 | 26 |
| Jacqez Barksdale | 82 | 306 | 2 | 3.7 | 19 |
| Messiah Burch | 29 | 153 | 2 | 5.3 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Snow | 55 | 651 | 6 | 11.8 | 46 |
| JJ Jenkins (Tr) | 36 | 536 | 4 | 14.9 | 90 |
| Al-Jay Henderson | 19 | 238 | 1 | 12.5 | 75 |
| Taji Johnson (Tr) | 19 | 215 | 2 | 11.3 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Khalil Murdock | 156 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Stewart (Tr) | 40 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Antonio Colclough (Tr) | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Cooper | 55 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |