Northern Illinois at Ball State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Northern Illinois -13.5 (47.5) (-500) Open: -12.0 | 48.5
Ball State 25 - Northern Illinois: 23 (Mid-American)

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (21 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL is playing their 8th straight game
NIU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Northern Illinois -16 (SP+ NIU -16.5)
Projected Score: NIU: 33 - BALL: 17 (51)
NIU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
NIU Travel: 212 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (29 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)	24.5	44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)	18.5	41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	25.3	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	40.1	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	13	24.5	20.7	42.1%	3.39	1.2	21	383	204	179	4.8	59%	41%	44%	40%	15%	.16
BALL Defense	12	40.1	33.4	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	13	18.5	19.7	37.7%	3.08	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	35%	17%	.06
BALL Offense	12	25.3	28.6	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	13	33:20	21.5	42%	45%	4.2	42.8	1.2	1.1	5.4	2.5	1	30.4
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	13	59% (11)	44% (72)	42.8	204.2	4.8	22 (55)	.14 (66)	3.25 (33)	72% (83)	9% (60)	1 (54)
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	13	49% (44)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.08 (45)	3.06 (79)	74% (73)	11% (53)	0.9 (33)
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	13	41% (124)	40% (86)	16.5	28.5	179.1	6.3	10.8	16 (87)	8 (40)	.23 (84)	1.6 (58)	31% (68)	30% (89)	.17 (117)	5% (39)	1.9 (116)
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	13	51% (93)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.04 (4)	1.5 (55)	36% (15)	25% (10)	.18 (16)	7% (37)	2 (67)
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -2.77 Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -3.5 Ball State: -19.8

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.7

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 33
Ball State 17

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 31
Ball State 25

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 30
Ball State 23

Total Points: 53

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Northern Illinois	21	Ball State	7	Northern Illinois -6.5	Northern Illinois	41.5	Under
2024	10/26	Ball State	25	Northern Illinois	23	Northern Illinois -13.5	Ball State	47.5	Over
2023	11/07	Northern Illinois	17	Ball State	20	Northern Illinois -9.5	Ball State	43.5	Under
2022	10/01	Ball State	44	Northern Illinois	38	Northern Illinois -3.5	Ball State	58.5	Over
2021	11/10	Northern Illinois	30	Ball State	29	Ball State -3	Northern Illinois	59.5	Under
2020	11/18	Ball State	31	Northern Illinois	25	Ball State -14.5	Northern Illinois	59.5	Under
2019	10/05	Northern Illinois	20	Ball State	27	Northern Illinois -4	Ball State	55.0	Under
2018	10/06	Ball State	16	Northern Illinois	24	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	52.5	Under
2017	11/09	Northern Illinois	63	Ball State	17	Northern Illinois -28.5	Northern Illinois	51.5	Over
2016	10/01	Ball State	24	Northern Illinois	31	Ball State -1	Northern Illinois	57.5	Under
2015	10/10	Northern Illinois	59	Ball State	41	Northern Illinois -10.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2014	11/05	Ball State	21	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -1.5	Northern Illinois	0
2013	11/13	Northern Illinois	48	Ball State	27	Northern Illinois -6.5	Northern Illinois	0
2012	10/06	Ball State	23	Northern Illinois	35
2011	11/15	Northern Illinois	41	Ball State	38
2010	11/20	Ball State	21	Northern Illinois	59
2009	11/12	Northern Illinois	26	Ball State	20
2008	11/05	Ball State	45	Northern Illinois	14
2007	11/24	Northern Illinois	21	Ball State	27
2006	09/30	Ball State	28	Northern Illinois	40
2005	10/29	Northern Illinois	17	Ball State	31
2004	10/30	Ball State	31	Northern Illinois	38
2003	11/01	Northern Illinois	48	Ball State	23
2002	10/05	Ball State	29	Northern Illinois	41
2001	11/17	Northern Illinois	33	Ball State	29
2000	09/29	Ball State	14	Northern Illinois	43

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	8	4	4 Overs
Northern Illinois	18	9	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#73) NIU at (#126) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#126
SP+SP+	#84	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#127
OffenseOff	#80	#93
DefenseDef	#24	#136
Spec TeamsST	#38	#111
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#136
SuccessSuc	#79	#118
ExplosiveExp	#96	#126
PPAPPA	#86	#128
PowerPwr	#97	#132
SP+SP+	#115	#133
Pts POPPO	#113	#133
HavocHav	#44	#116

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#90	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#103
Run ExplRExp	#54	#110
PPAExp	#66	#116
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#77
TackleTak	-	#121

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#119
PPAExp	#84	#128
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#58	#61
F7 HavocF7	#60	#103
DB HavocDB	#39	#115

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	NIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#24
SuccessSuc	#78	#19
ExplosiveExp	#81	#37
PPAPPA	#98	#11
PowerPwr	#93	#11
SP+SP+	#103	#32
Pts POPPO	#65	#12
HavocHav	#119	#48

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#131	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#52
Run ExplRExp	#117	#33
PPAExp	#91	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#104
TackleTak	-	#3

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#55
PPAExp	#98	#4
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#38	#73
F7 HavocF7	#99	#53
DB HavocDB	#123	#37

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Northern Illinois 13.5 (47.5)
Ball State won vs Northern Illinois this year (25-23)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Northern Illinois last year (25-23)
Ball State beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (20-17)
Ball State beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (44-38)

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4