Ball State at Vanderbilt - 2024 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Vanderbilt Commodores(#17)

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Vanderbilt -27.5 (57.5) (-4500) Open: -24.5
Vanderbilt 24 - Ball State: 14

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL 2nd straight Road Game
BALL is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -28 (SP+ VAN -25)
Projected Score: BALL: 17 - VAN: 45 (61)
VAN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
BALL Travel: 291 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Commodores (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 27 - 23 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
VAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech	+13.5	53.5	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State	-32.5	47.5	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Vanderbilt at Georgia State	-8.5	45.5	L 32 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/21	Vanderbilt at Missouri	+17.5	52.0	L 27 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Vanderbilt vs Alabama	+23.5	53.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Vanderbilt at Kentucky	+12.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Vanderbilt vs Ball State	-27.5	57.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/26	Vanderbilt vs Texas	+17.0	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Vanderbilt at Auburn	+7.5	48.0	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Vanderbilt vs South Carolina	+6.0	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Vanderbilt at LSU	+10.0	53.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Vanderbilt vs Tennessee	+9.5	45.5	L 23 - 36	O	N
Fri 12/27	Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech	+3.0	49.0	W 35 - 27	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	25.3	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	40.1	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)	27.3	42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)	23.4	46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)		42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)		46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	25.3	23	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14
VAN Defense	13	23.4	23.9	46.9%	4.22	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	46%	48%	16%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	40.1	44.9	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32
VAN Offense	13	27.3	29.6	42.2%	4.25	0.5	17	295	129	166	3.9	58%	42%	42%	43%	15%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3
Vanderbilt	13	28:39	16.6	44%	54%	5	48.3	0.5	1.1	4.8	1.7	4	31.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)
VAN Defense	13	49% (47)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.12 (70)	2.98 (62)	77% (88)	10% (76)	0.89 (30)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)
VAN Offense	13	58% (18)	42% (93)	33.1	129.2	3.9	16 (90)	.06 (104)	2.8 (105)	83% (10)	8% (41)	0.87 (116)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)
VAN Defense	13	51% (90)	48% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.37 (120)	1.5 (33)	29% (111)	36% (122)	.45 (117)	7% (48)	2.1 (72)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)
VAN Offense	13	42% (115)	43% (53)	12.8	21.8	166.3	7.6	13	18 (68)	4 (1)	.33 (33)	1.7 (37)	33% (108)	31% (74)	.32 (75)	7% (96)	2.1 (64)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09 Vanderbilt: 6.445

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 Vanderbilt: 4.9

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 6.445 #49
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 12.18 #91
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Vanderbilt's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Vanderbilt's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #59

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Vanderbilt 45
Ball State 17

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Vanderbilt 40
Ball State 30

Total Points: 70

Based on Entire Season
Vanderbilt 36
Ball State 24

Total Points: 60

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.9

Vanderbilt's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Vanderbilt	24	Ball State	14	Vanderbilt -27.5	Ball State	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Vanderbilt	1	0	0 Overs
Ball State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#126) BALL at (#49) VAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	VAN
Power RatePwr	#126	#49
SP+SP+	#126	#50
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#81
OffenseOff	#93	#77
DefenseDef	#136	#100
Spec TeamsST	#111	#59
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#65

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	VAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#93	#100
SuccessSuc	#78	#121
ExplosiveExp	#81	#38
PPAPPA	#98	#111
PowerPwr	#93	#91
SP+SP+	#103	#59
Pts POPPO	#65	#109
HavocHav	#119	#65

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#131	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#96
Run ExplRExp	#117	#30
PPAExp	#91	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#39
TackleTak	-	#105

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#33
PPAExp	#98	#120
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#38	#107
F7 HavocF7	#99	#76
DB HavocDB	#123	#48

Vanderbilt on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	BALL Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#136
SuccessSuc	#75	#118
ExplosiveExp	#108	#126
PPAPPA	#76	#128
PowerPwr	#75	#132
SP+SP+	#60	#133
Pts POPPO	#34	#133
HavocHav	#52	#116

Vanderbilt Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#81	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#103
Run ExplRExp	#116	#110
PPAExp	#104	#116
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#77
TackleTak	-	#121

Vanderbilt Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#16	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#119
PPAExp	#33	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#127	#61
F7 HavocF7	#41	#103
DB HavocDB	#96	#115

Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 59°

Rematch from Week 8
Vanderbilt -27.5 (57.5)
Vanderbilt won vs Ball State this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Ball State last year (24-14)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4

VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia (Tr)	177	298	59%	2293	20	4	7.7
Nate Johnson (Tr)	1	3	33%	12	0	0	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia (Tr)	193	800	8	4.1	36
Sedrick Alexander	164	586	6	3.6	31
AJ Newberry	41	185	3	4.5	20
Nate Johnson (Tr)	11	114	1	10.4	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Stowers (Tr)	49	638	5	13.0	41
Junior Sherrill	29	411	3	14.2	43
Quincy Skinner Jr.	29	367	3	12.7	63
Sedrick Alexander	23	238	1	10.3	38

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Clark Lea (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan Longwell	88	8	2	2	4
Langston Patterson	78	5	0	0	2
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
CJ Taylor	64	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nicholas Rinaldi	52	6	6	0	0
Khordae Sydnor (Tr)	14	7	4	2	2
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
Miles Capers	45	8	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
Bryan Longwell	88	8	2	2	4
Martel Hight	33	2	0	1	4