Missouri State at Ball State Game Matchup
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears at Ball State CardinalsBall State logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Ball State -2.5 (50.5) (-140)  Open: -2.5 | 52.5
Ball State 42 - Missouri State: 34

 
Bears (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (4 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 42 (34 - 42 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 13.9 MPH
Our Line: -19   (SP+ BALL -20)

Projected Score: MOST: 35 - BALL: 35 (71)
BALL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 472 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (29 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Missouri State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Missouri State at Ball State+2.550.5L 34 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Ball State vs Missouri State-2.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Ball State at Miami+36.555.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 9/21 Ball State at Central Michigan+6.551.0L 34 - 37OY
Sat 9/28 Ball State at James Madison+22.056.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 10/5 Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.057.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/12 Ball State at Kent State-3.058.0W 37 - 35ON
Sat 10/19 Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.557.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.547.5W 25 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.548.5L 21 - 27UY
Tue 11/12 Ball State at Buffalo+3.555.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 11/23 Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.554.5L 13 - 38UN
Fri 11/29 Ball State at Ohio+17.551.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%340%000%000%420%0%0000
BALL#97 (.14)40% (95)25.345% (50)3.35 (22)17133% (127)1373.31 (105)#70 (.18)42% (66)40.143% (65)42% (70)3.81 (70)45.21.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense134340%00000000%0%0%0%0%
BALL Defense1240.133.441.8%3.810.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%42%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
BALL Offense1225.328.639.8%3.311.3183081711374.458%41%45%33%17%.14

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Ball State1232:4418.138%56%5.245.21.30.95.72.1028.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense10%0%000000%0%0
BALL Defense1248% (44)43% (65) - - - - .11 (45)3.08 (62)79% (102)11% (35)0.89 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
BALL Offense1258% (14)45% (50)39.3171.44.415 (100).21 (38)3.35 (22)83% (8)12% (112)0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
BALL Defense1251% (93)42% (70) - - - - - - 5 (126).27 (70)1.5 (29)32% (61)28% (30).21 (20)5% (97)2 (39)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
BALL Offense1241% (119)33% (127)15.125.3136.75.49.19 (126)8 (30).05 (128)1.4 (130)33% (92)24% (123).18 (110)5% (25)2 (104)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: #NR
Missouri State's Offense Rating: #NR
Missouri State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Missouri State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Missouri State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State:    Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State:    Ball State: -19.8




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Missouri State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri State 35
Ball State 35


Projected Total Points: 71
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Ball State42Missouri State34Ball StateBall State -2.5Ball State50.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State111 Overs
Missouri State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) Missouri State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Team Profile






,
,







Missouri State     Ratings Matchup     Ball State
Power #NR
#126
Off #NR
#93
Def #NR
#132
Talent #
#92
SP+ #N/A
#126
SP+ Off #N/A
#103
SP+ Def #N/A
#133

Rematch from Week 2
Ball State -2.5 (50.5)
Ball State won vs Missouri State this year (42-34)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Missouri State last year (42-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65° - Wind: 14 mph


Team Information
Injuries: MOST | BALL
Depth Chart: MOST | BALL
Rosters: MOST | BALL
(#126) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs


  
Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark25736970%35482669.6
Brock Bagozzi3475%15003.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Iverson Young85907.428
Jmariyae Robinson84735.923
Reggie Branch61803.010
Jacob Clark78710.138
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jmariyae Robinson38585415.444
Lance Mason32569617.882
James BlackStrain (Tr)23353315.337
Alred Luke14194213.932

View Missouri State's Full Roster
Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Todric McGee161000
Dallas Winner-Johnson81000
Michael Teason62000
Kanye Young53200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young53200
Todric McGee161000
Dallas Winner-Johnson81000
Michael Teason62000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Simmons31002
Ryan Williams20001
Todric McGee161000

Ball State's OC Jared Elliott
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kadin Semonza27542764%290025106.8
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)15059744.040
Vaughn Pemberton6127624.541
Cam Pickett17170210.034
TJ Horton2310704.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tanner Koziol9483988.933
Cam Pickett49528210.865
Justin Bowick (Tr)20383319.257
Braedon Sloan (Tr)29329111.372

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
George Udo (Tr)782111
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Joey Stemler566260
D.D. Snyder552001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Joey Stemler566260
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Norwood (Tr)382005
Thailand Baldwin233003
Scott Hudson31102