Missouri State at Ball State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Missouri State Bears at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Ball State -2.5 (50.5) (-140) Open: -2.5 | 52.5
Ball State 42 - Missouri State: 34

Bears (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (4 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 42 (34 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -19 (SP+ BALL -20)
Projected Score: MOST: 35 - BALL: 35 (70)
BALL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 472 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (29 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Missouri State at Ball State	+2.5	50.5	L 34 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%	34	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	42	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	25.3	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	40.1	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	1	34	34	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BALL Defense	12	40.1	33.4	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	1	42	42	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BALL Offense	12	25.3	28.6	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: #NR
Missouri State's Offense Rating: #NR
Missouri State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Missouri State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Missouri State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: Ball State: -19.8

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Missouri State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 35
Ball State 35

Total Points: 70

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Ball State	42	Missouri State	34	Ball State	Ball State -2.5	Ball State	50.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	1	1	1 Overs
Missouri State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#NR) Missouri State Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Missouri State Highlights

Missouri State Deficiencies
Missouri State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	BALL	MOST
OverallOver	#92	#32
OffenseOff	#75	#38
DefenseDef	#115	#39
Special TeamsST	#91	#21
PassingPass	#70	#4
RushingRush	#98	#40
Run BlockRBLK	#69	#95
Pass BlockPBLK	#38	#93
Route RunningWR Rt	#50	#17
TacklingTkl	#105	#91
Run DefenseR Def	#108	#41
Pass Rush DefPRush	#54	#75
Coverage DefCov	#110	#23

Rematch from Week 2
Ball State -2.5 (50.5)
Ball State won vs Missouri State this year (42-34)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Missouri State last year (42-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MOST | BALL
Depth Chart: MOST | BALL
Rosters: MOST | BALL

(#126) Ball State Info
Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 3 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs

Ball State Highlights
Ball State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#120)

Ball State commits very few Penalties (#59)

Ball State Deficiencies
Ball State Can Not Run the Ball (#80)
Ball State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Ball State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Ball State has a bad defense (#128)
Ball State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#77)
Ball State has a bad red zone defense (#70)

Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	257	369	70%	3548	26	6	9.6
Brock Bagozzi	3	4	75%	15	0	0	3.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacardia Wright	173	792	13	4.6	37
Jayden Becks	64	442	7	6.9	59
Iverson Young	8	59	0	7.4	28
Jmariyae Robinson	8	47	3	5.9	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Wood	63	770	3	12.2	35
Jmariyae Robinson	38	585	4	15.4	44
Lance Mason	32	569	6	17.8	82
DVontae Key	25	406	3	16.2	62

View Missouri State's Full Roster

Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott

Top Def	Tack	TFL
Todric McGee	16	1
Tahj Chambers	9	0
Dallas Winner-Johnson	8	1
P.J. Hall	8	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kanye Young	5	3	2	0
Jalen Williams	2	1	1	1
Todric McGee	16	1	0	0
Sterling Smithson	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dylan Simmons	3	1	0	2
Jalen Williams	2	1	1	1
Ryan Williams	2	0	0	1

Ball State's OC Jared Elliott

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4