Missouri State at Ball State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Missouri State Bears at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Ball State -2.5 (50.5) (-140) Open: -2.5 | 52.5
Ball State 42 - Missouri State: 34

Bears (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (4 - 7)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -19 (SP+ BALL -20)
Projected Score: MOST: 25 - BALL: 25 (50)
BALL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 472 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Missouri State at Ball State	+2.5	50.5	L 34 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	15.8	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	29.8	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	1	25.6	22.5	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BALL Defense	12	29.8	21.6	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	1	28.8	31.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BALL Offense	12	15.8	24.4	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: NR
Missouri State's Offense Rating: NR
Missouri State's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Missouri State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Missouri State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: Ball State: -19.8

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 239.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 25
Ball State 25

Projected Total Points: 50

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Ball State	42	Missouri State	34	Ball State -2.5	Ball State	50.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	1	1	1 Overs
Missouri State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#) MOST at (#126) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#126
SP+SP+	NR	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#127
OffenseOff	#44	#93
DefenseDef	#53	#136
Spec TeamsST	#23	#111
TalentTal	NR	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#102

Missouri State Injury Report

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense


CategoryCat	MOST Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#136
SuccessSuc	NR	#66
ExplosiveExp	NR	#16
PPAPPA	NR	#70
PowerPwr	NR	#132
SP+SP+	NR	#133
Pts POPPO	NR	#70
HavocHav	NR	#60

Missouri State Run Game


CategoryCat	MOST Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#57	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#65
Run ExplRExp	NR	#23
PPAExp	NR	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#62
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#99
TackleTak	-	#121

Missouri State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MOST Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#70
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#29
PPAExp	NR	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#61
F7 HavocF7	NR	#35
DB HavocDB	NR	#97

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	MOST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#53
SuccessSuc	#95	NR
ExplosiveExp	#126	NR
PPAPPA	#97	NR
PowerPwr	#93	NR
SP+SP+	#103	NR
Pts POPPO	#105	NR
HavocHav	#85	NR

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#131	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	NR
Run ExplRExp	#70	NR
PPAExp	#38	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#3	NR
TackleTak	-	#105

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#130	NR
PPAExp	#128	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#38	#88
F7 HavocF7	#112	NR
DB HavocDB	#25	NR

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Ball State -2.5 (50.5)
Ball State won vs Missouri State this year (42-34)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Missouri State in 2024 (42-34)

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	257	369	70%	3548	26	6	9.6
Brock Bagozzi	3	4	75%	15	0	0	3.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacardia Wright	173	792	13	4.6	37
Jayden Becks	64	442	7	6.9	59
Iverson Young	8	59	0	7.4	28
Jmariyae Robinson	8	47	3	5.9	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Wood	63	770	3	12.2	35
Jmariyae Robinson	38	585	4	15.4	44
Lance Mason	32	569	6	17.8	82
DVontae Key	25	406	3	16.2	62

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL
Todric McGee	16	1
Tahj Chambers	9	0
Dallas Winner-Johnson	8	1
P.J. Hall	8	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kanye Young	5	3	2	0
Jalen Williams	2	1	1	1
Todric McGee	16	1	0	0
Sterling Smithson	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dylan Simmons	3	1	0	2
Jalen Williams	2	1	1	1
Ryan Williams	2	0	0	1

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4