Ball State at Central Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (1:00 PM EDT)
Central Michigan -6.5 (51.0) (-245) Open: -6.5 | 53.0
Central Michigan 37 - Ball State: 34 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL 2nd straight Road Game
CMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Central Michigan -9 (SP+ CMU -4)
Projected Score: BALL: 20 - CMU: 29 (49)
CMU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BALL Travel: 235 miles

Chippewas (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (29 - 28)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
CMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut	-33.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Central Michigan vs Florida International	-3.5	51.5	L 16 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/14	Central Michigan at Illinois	+21.5	49.5	L 9 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Central Michigan vs Ball State	-6.5	51.0	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/28	Central Michigan vs San Diego State	-2.5	47.5	W 22 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Central Michigan vs Ohio	+3.0	50.5	L 25 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan	+3.5	52.5	L 34 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/26	Central Michigan at Miami (OH)	+10.5	48.5	L 7 - 46	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Central Michigan vs Bowling Green	+14.5	47.5	L 13 - 23	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Central Michigan at Toledo	+15.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N
Tue 11/19	Central Michigan vs Western Michigan	+6.0	56.0	W 16 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Central Michigan at Northern Illinois	+16.5	41.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	15.8	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	29.8	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9
CMU	#83 (.16)	40% (101)	22.5	43% (72)	3.29 (35)	160	36% (111)	185	4.2 (39)	#128 (.32)	45% (115)	23.5	48% (116)	44% (95)	4.43 (121)	58.1	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	15.8	9.7	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14
CMU Defense	12	23.5	15.2	45.5%	4.43	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	44%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	29.8	35.7	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18
CMU Offense	12	22.5	30.4	39.5%	4.2	1.3	19	344	160	185	4.2	56%	43%	43%	36%	14%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8
Central Michigan	12	30:13	18.9	34%	70%	6.7	58.1	1.3	0.7	4.6	1.5	1	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)
CMU Defense	12	51% (86)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.25 (118)	3.4 (119)	77% (97)	8% (121)	1.04 (91)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)
CMU Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (72)	38	159.5	4.2	21 (54)	.22 (30)	3.29 (35)	77% (36)	10% (68)	1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)
CMU Defense	12	48% (50)	44% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.41 (122)	1.7 (96)	31% (90)	29% (52)	.35 (87)	5% (98)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)
CMU Offense	12	43% (110)	36% (111)	15.3	27.1	184.7	6.8	12.1	15 (96)	11 (68)	.16 (108)	1.7 (31)	36% (125)	28% (86)	.36 (62)	4% (9)	2.3 (14)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 239.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09 Central Michigan: -12.46

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 Central Michigan: -15.8

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -12.46 #111
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 17.21 #92
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 12.06 #88
2024 Talent Rating: 233.00 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Central Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Central Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.8 #120
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Central Michigan 29
Ball State 20

Projected Total Points: 49

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Central Michigan	37	Ball State	34	Central Michigan -6.5	Ball State	51.0	Over
2023	10/21	Ball State	24	Central Michigan	17	Central Michigan -5	Ball State	42.0	Under
2022	10/08	Central Michigan	16	Ball State	17	Central Michigan -7.5	Ball State	63.0	Under
2021	11/17	Ball State	17	Central Michigan	37	Central Michigan -2.5	Central Michigan	57.0	Under
2020	12/05	Central Michigan	20	Ball State	45	Ball State -2.5	Ball State	62.5	Over
2019	11/16	Ball State	44	Central Michigan	45	Ball State -2	Central Michigan	59.5	Over
2018	10/13	Central Michigan	23	Ball State	24	Central Michigan -2.5	Ball State	54.5	Under
2017	10/21	Ball State	9	Central Michigan	56	Central Michigan -3	Central Michigan	48.0	Over
2016	10/08	Central Michigan	24	Ball State	21	Central Michigan -13.5	Ball State	56.0	Under
2015	10/24	Ball State	21	Central Michigan	23	Central Michigan -6	Ball State	56.0	Under
2014	10/18	Central Michigan	29	Ball State	32	Central Michigan -6.5	Ball State	0
2013	11/06	Ball State	44	Central Michigan	24	Ball State -21.5	Central Michigan	0
2012	10/20	Central Michigan	30	Ball State	41
2011	10/22	Ball State	31	Central Michigan	27
2010	10/02	Central Michigan	17	Ball State	31
2009	11/18	Ball State	3	Central Michigan	35
2008	11/19	Central Michigan	24	Ball State	31
2007	10/06	Ball State	38	Central Michigan	58
2006	10/14	Central Michigan	18	Ball State	7
2005	11/19	Ball State	24	Central Michigan	31
2004	11/20	Central Michigan	41	Ball State	40
2003	09/20	Ball State	27	Central Michigan	14
2002	11/16	Central Michigan	21	Ball State	38
2001	11/03	Ball State	38	Central Michigan	34
2000	10/27	Central Michigan	34	Ball State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Central Michigan	11	4	4 Overs
Ball State	14	8	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 16	2 - 10	0 - 7	2 - 3
Road Teams	16 - 9	10 - 2	3 - 2	7 - 0

(#126) BALL at (#111) CMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	CMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#126	#111
SP+SP+	#126	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#108
OffenseOff	#93	#129
DefenseDef	#136	#55
Spec TeamsST	#111	#45
TalentTal	#101	#104
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Central Michigan Notes(12/10) Hired HC Drinkall (Army OL/TE, K Wes HC 14-18)
(11/20) McElwain retiring after final game vs N. Ill
(11/13) New QB Glasser bad vs Toledo, Rgame awful in L
(11/8) Off really bad, QB's unplayable, Rgame plodding
(10/27) 3 str L's, Def cooked, QBs are awful, Dogs last 4
(10/20) 45 runs/12 pass. Ran for 285, but Pass D torched
(10/15) Starting QB Labas out for season (arm)
(10/15) Backup QB Jefferson starting vs EMU
(10/13) QB's bad, Rgame OK, Run def mauled by Ohio
(10/4) Run Off/Def good, Pass Off/Def bad. OL & F7 good
(10/2) Rgame good/dominant vs poor D's. QB Labas JAG
(9/15) OL/DL played even w/ Ill. QB Labas really awful
Central Michigan Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	CMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#55
SuccessSuc	#95	#115
ExplosiveExp	#126	#93
PPAPPA	#97	#128
PowerPwr	#93	#88
SP+SP+	#103	#115
Pts POPPO	#105	#121
HavocHav	#85	#119

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#131	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#116
Run ExplRExp	#70	#91
PPAExp	#38	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#117
TackleTak	-	#23

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#95
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#96
PPAExp	#128	#122
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#38	#28
F7 HavocF7	#112	#121
DB HavocDB	#25	#98

Central Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#129	#136
SuccessSuc	#101	#66
ExplosiveExp	#42	#16
PPAPPA	#83	#70
PowerPwr	#92	#132
SP+SP+	#122	#133
Pts POPPO	#39	#70
HavocHav	#39	#60

Central Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#100	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#65
Run ExplRExp	#23	#23
PPAExp	#30	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#99
TackleTak	-	#121

Central Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#111	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#29
PPAExp	#108	#70
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#129	#61
F7 HavocF7	#68	#35
DB HavocDB	#9	#97

Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Central Michigan -6.5 (51.0)
Central Michigan won vs Ball State this year (37-34)

Previous Matchups
Central Michigan beat Ball State in 2024 (37-34)
Ball State beat Central Michigan in 2023 (24-17)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4

CMU's OC Jim McElwain (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Labas	94	160	59%	1114	7	7	7.0
Jadyn Glasser	41	76	54%	439	2	4	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	161	788	5	4.9	66
BJ Harris	91	418	3	4.6	71
Myles Bailey	51	292	3	5.7	35
Tyler Jefferson	43	233	1	5.4	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Parker	29	360	3	12.4	44
Solomon Davis (Tr)	19	350	2	18.4	72
Evan Boyd	21	302	2	14.4	47
Jesse Prewitt III	23	186	2	8.1	21

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Kwiatkowski	97	14	0	1	1
Caleb Spann	61	4	2	0	5
Justin Whiteside	58	6	3	4	1
Elijah Rikard	56	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Williams	42	9	6	1	0
Jonah Pace	34	11	4	6	2
Michael Heldman	29	6	4	8	0
Dakota Cochran	54	11	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daraun McKinney	53	2	1	9
Donte Kent	52	1	0	7
Caleb Spann	61	4	2	5