Western Michigan at Ball State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Michigan Broncos at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Western Michigan -10 (57.5) (-360) Open: -7.5
Western Michigan 45 - Ball State: 42 (Mid-American)

Broncos (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WMU 2nd straight Road Game
BALL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Western Michigan -8.5 (SP+ WMU -9.5)
Projected Score: WMU: 30 - BALL: 21 (51)
WMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
WMU Travel: 143 miles

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WMU Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Western Michigan at Wisconsin	+24.0	57.0	L 14 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Western Michigan at Ohio State	+37.5	54.5	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/14	Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman	-33.5	54.5	W 59 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Western Michigan at Marshall	+3.5	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/5	Western Michigan at Ball State	-10.0	57.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/12	Western Michigan vs Akron	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Western Michigan at Buffalo	-1.0	49.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Western Michigan vs Kent State	-19.0	61.0	W 52 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+2.5	51.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Tue 11/12	Western Michigan at Bowling Green	+9.5	57.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 11/19	Western Michigan at Central Michigan	-6.0	56.0	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/30	Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	56.5	W 26 - 18	U	Y
Sat 12/14	Western Michigan vs South Alabama	+6.0	53.5	L 23 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#85 (.16)	40% (90)	24.9	41% (87)	3.09 (71)	153	40% (87)	211	3.89 (72)	#92 (.22)	44% (101)	17.4	46% (99)	44% (99)	4.15 (105)	62.3	1.1	1.5
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	15.8	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	29.8	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Offense	12	24.9	18.3	40.3%	3.89	1.1	20	365	153	211	3.8	54%	45%	41%	40%	16%	.16
BALL Defense	12	29.8	21.6	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Defense	12	17.4	21.7	44.3%	4.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	46%	44%	19%	.22
BALL Offense	12	15.8	24.4	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Michigan	12	29:55	19.6	36%	49%	7.1	62.3	1.1	1.5	5.2	2	0	28.3
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Offense	12	54% (38)	41% (87)	39.9	153.3	3.8	21 (54)	.15 (73)	3.09 (71)	75% (58)	10% (66)	1 (65)
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Defense	12	50% (74)	46% (99)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.48 (127)	81% (112)	11% (44)	0.95 (40)
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Offense	12	45% (98)	40% (87)	20.6	32.8	211.2	6.5	10.3	13 (111)	9 (40)	.2 (96)	1.5 (105)	30% (29)	25% (113)	.25 (93)	6% (88)	2 (96)
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Defense	12	48% (47)	44% (99)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.33 (104)	1.6 (78)	31% (94)	30% (71)	.23 (29)	9% (7)	1.9 (31)
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -10.37 #103
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 22.99 #41
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 15.82 #113
2024 Talent Rating: 288.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Western Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Western Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #105
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #86
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #120

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.37 Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.2 Ball State: -19.8

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 239.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Western Michigan 30
Ball State 21

Projected Total Points: 51

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Western Michigan	42	Ball State	0	Western Michigan -9.5	Western Michigan	43.5	Under
2024	10/05	Ball State	42	Western Michigan	45	Western Michigan -10	Ball State	57.5	Over
2023	09/30	Western Michigan	42	Ball State	24	Western Michigan -1.5	Western Michigan	50.0	Over
2022	09/10	Ball State	30	Western Michigan	37	Western Michigan -6.5	Western Michigan	51.5	Over
2021	10/09	Western Michigan	20	Ball State	45	Western Michigan -13	Ball State	57.5	Over
2020	12/12	Ball State	30	Western Michigan	27	Western Michigan -2	Ball State	66.5	Under
2019	11/05	Western Michigan	35	Ball State	31	Western Michigan -6.5	Ball State	64.0	Over
2018	11/13	Ball State	42	Western Michigan	41	Western Michigan -10	Ball State	58.0	Over
2017	09/30	Western Michigan	55	Ball State	3	Western Michigan -13	Western Michigan	53.5	Over
2016	11/01	Ball State	20	Western Michigan	52	Western Michigan -16	Western Michigan	64.5	Over
2015	11/05	Western Michigan	54	Ball State	7	Western Michigan -13.5	Western Michigan	62.0	Under
2014	10/11	Ball State	38	Western Michigan	42	Ball State -6	Western Michigan	0
2013	10/19	Western Michigan	17	Ball State	38	Ball State -21	NA	0
2012	10/13	Ball State	30	Western Michigan	24
2011	10/29	Western Michigan	45	Ball State	35
2010	10/09	Ball State	16	Western Michigan	45
2009	11/24	Western Michigan	17	Ball State	22
2008	11/25	Ball State	45	Western Michigan	22
2007	10/20	Western Michigan	23	Ball State	27
2006	10/21	Ball State	27	Western Michigan	41
2005	10/08	Western Michigan	57	Ball State	60
2004	09/25	Ball State	41	Western Michigan	14
2003	11/08	Western Michigan	28	Ball State	20
2002	11/02	Ball State	17	Western Michigan	7
2001	11/24	Western Michigan	31	Ball State	35
2000	11/03	Ball State	3	Western Michigan	42

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	12	5	8 Overs
Western Michigan	14	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	13 - 13	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#103) WMU at (#126) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WMU	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#103	#126
SP+SP+	#105	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#127
OffenseOff	#7	#93
DefenseDef	#103	#136
Spec TeamsST	#70	#111
TalentTal	#79	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Western Michigan Notes(12/15) Good fight in bowl (S Al), Run Def torched 260+
(11/25) 3 str L's, zero Rgame, QB sucked, Vs EMU 4 bowl
(11/13) QBs/Rgame awful vs BG, Run Def torched in L
(11/7) TO's, stupidity cost vs N Ill. QB Wolff a fraud
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#125) into week 9
(10/20) Off torched Buffalo, Def awful vs both Pass & Run
(10/18) Better than record, sched rough, close losses
(10/13) Rgame good, Pass D torched by Akron. Def 4 TOs
(10/4) Run a lot w/ good success. Def awful so far
(10/4) Let's see how they play now sched lightens up
(8/15) DBs supposed to be near the best in the MAC
(7/30) Lost OC/DCs. Hired OC/DC both fired LY (L Tech/IU)
Western Michigan Injury Report

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Western Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#136
SuccessSuc	#90	#66
ExplosiveExp	#104	#16
PPAPPA	#85	#70
PowerPwr	#41	#132
SP+SP+	#86	#133
Pts POPPO	#72	#70
HavocHav	#71	#60

Western Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#40	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#65
Run ExplRExp	#65	#23
PPAExp	#73	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#99
TackleTak	-	#121

Western Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#87	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#105	#29
PPAExp	#96	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#19	#61
F7 HavocF7	#66	#35
DB HavocDB	#88	#97

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	WMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#103
SuccessSuc	#95	#101
ExplosiveExp	#126	#56
PPAPPA	#97	#92
PowerPwr	#93	#113
SP+SP+	#103	#120
Pts POPPO	#105	#105
HavocHav	#85	#13

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#131	#107
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#99
Run ExplRExp	#70	#40
PPAExp	#38	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#101
TackleTak	-	#82

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#89
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#99
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#78
PPAExp	#128	#104
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#38	#92
F7 HavocF7	#112	#44
DB HavocDB	#25	#7

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Western Michigan 10.0 (57.5)
Western Michigan won at Ball State this year (45-42)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Ball State last year (42-0)
Western Michigan beat Ball State in 2024 (45-42)
Western Michigan beat Ball State in 2023 (42-24)

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hayden Wolff	191	285	67%	2214	17	7	7.8
Broc Lowry (Tr)	4	8	50%	21	0	0	2.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon	132	874	12	6.6	92
Jalen Buckley	120	657	8	5.5	61
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	104	567	3	5.5	70
Broc Lowry (Tr)	22	123	3	5.6	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenneth Womack	34	456	1	13.4	41
Blake Bosma	37	403	6	10.9	55
Anthony Sambucci	31	376	2	12.1	54
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	28	227	1	8.1	31

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Scott Power (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donald Willis	109	7	1	4	4
Tate Hallock	84	5	0	0	5
Jacob Wahlberg	78	2	1	1	1
Bilhal Kone	70	1	0	2	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Walker	38	7	6	3	5
Mason Nelson	31	9	3	1	1
Isaiah Green	28	3	2	4	0
Donald Willis	109	7	1	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bilhal Kone	70	1	0	2	8
Nyquan Washington	31	3	0	0	5
Corey Walker	38	7	6	3	5

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4