Ball State at Kent State Game Matchup
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesKent State logo
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ball State -3 (58.0) (-148)  Open: -7.0
Ball State 37 - Kent State: 35  (Mid-American)

 
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
KENT coming off BYE
BALL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ball State -9   (SP+ BALL -13)

Projected Score: BALL: 35 - KENT: 26 (62)
BALL Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BALL Travel: 224 miles
Golden Flashes (0 - 12) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Kenni Burns (1 - 11)
Avg Score : 14 - 44 (20 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 12 (#134)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Ball State vs Missouri State-2.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Ball State at Miami+36.555.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 9/21 Ball State at Central Michigan+6.551.0L 34 - 37OY
Sat 9/28 Ball State at James Madison+22.056.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 10/5 Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.057.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/12 Ball State at Kent State-3.058.0W 37 - 35ON
Sat 10/19 Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.557.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.547.5W 25 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.548.5L 21 - 27UY
Tue 11/12 Ball State at Buffalo+3.555.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 11/23 Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.554.5L 13 - 38UN
Fri 11/29 Ball State at Ohio+17.551.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kent State at Pittsburgh+23.555.5L 24 - 55ON
Sat 9/7 Kent State vs St. Francis (PA)-17.549.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 9/14 Kent State at Tennessee+49.561.5L 0 - 71ON
Sat 9/21 Kent State at Penn State+49.058.0L 0 - 56UN
Sat 9/28 Kent State vs Eastern Michigan+14.046.0L 33 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kent State vs Ball State+3.058.0L 35 - 37OY
Sat 10/19 Kent State at Bowling Green+24.054.5L 6 - 27UY
Sat 10/26 Kent State at Western Michigan+19.061.0L 21 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Kent State vs Ohio+20.553.5L 0 - 41UN
Wed 11/13 Kent State at Miami (OH)+31.047.5L 7 - 34UY
Tue 11/19 Kent State vs Akron+10.549.0L 17 - 38ON
Tue 11/26 Kent State at Buffalo+23.550.5L 7 - 43UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Kent State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#97 (.14)40% (95)25.345% (50)3.35 (22)17133% (127)1373.31 (105)#70 (.18)42% (66)40.143% (65)42% (70)3.81 (70)45.21.30.9
KENT#125 (.05)35% (130)13.932% (133)2.84 (113)10640% (89)1653.27 (110)#125 (.32)45% (111)44.147% (108)44% (97)4.88 (132)46.210.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KENT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1225.32339.8%3.311.3183081711374.458%41%45%33%17%.14
KENT Defense1244.138.245%4.880.8 - - - - - 56%43%47%44%13%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1240.144.941.8%3.810.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%42%17%.18
KENT Offense1213.920.435.2%3.271152701061652.953%47%32%40%19%.05

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1232:4418.138%56%5.245.21.30.95.72.1028.8
Kent State1228:491530%46%5.446.210.84.10.9028.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1258% (14)45% (50)39.3171.44.415 (100).21 (38)3.35 (22)83% (8)12% (112)0.99 (70)
KENT Defense1256% (124)47% (108) - - - - .24 (117)3.23 (98)79% (107)7% (131)1.08 (106)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1248% (44)43% (65) - - - - .11 (45)3.08 (62)79% (102)11% (35)0.89 (23)
KENT Offense1253% (44)32% (133)36.8105.92.98 (130)-.03 (132)2.84 (113)67% (109)12% (117)0.91 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1241% (119)33% (127)15.125.3136.75.49.19 (126)8 (30).05 (128)1.4 (130)33% (92)24% (123).18 (110)5% (25)2 (104)
KENT Defense1243% (14)44% (97) - - - - - - 6 (120).44 (127)1.8 (117)32% (73)31% (76).33 (79)6% (91)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1251% (93)42% (70) - - - - - - 5 (126).27 (70)1.5 (29)32% (61)28% (30).21 (20)5% (97)2 (39)
KENT Offense1247% (90)40% (89)13.325.5164.56.512.311 (117)6 (14).16 (110)1.6 (72)36% (122)25% (112).18 (108)7% (99)2 (76)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09   Kent State: -30.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8   Kent State: -33.0




Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -30.295 #134
Kent State's Offense Rating: 8.84 #130
Kent State's Defense Rating: 22.62 #133
2024 Talent Rating: 488.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Kent State's 2024 Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0
Kent State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -33.0 #134
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #133
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #134

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ball State 35
Kent State 26


Projected Total Points: 62
Kent State Scoring
Offense: 13.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 44.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.2

Kent State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 12
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Kent State35Ball State37Ball StateBall State -3Kent State58.0Over
202311/18Ball State34Kent State3Ball StateBall State -10.5Ball State41.5Under
202211/01Kent State20Ball State27Ball StateKent State -7Ball State61.5Under
201911/23Kent State41Ball State38Kent StateBall State -3Kent State67.5Over
201809/29Ball State52Kent State24Ball StateBall State -7Ball State62.0Over
201310/12Ball State27Kent State24Ball StateBall State -11Kent State0
201209/29Kent State45Ball State43Kent State
201010/30Kent State33Ball State14Kent State
200809/27Ball State41Kent State20Ball State
200611/24Ball State30Kent State6Ball State
200310/04Kent State17Ball State34Ball State
200111/10Ball State18Kent State31Kent State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kent State433 Overs
Ball State832 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 44 - 22 - 22 - 0
Road Teams4 - 82 - 40 - 22 - 2

(#126) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
Ball State     Ratings Matchup     Kent State
Power #126
#134
Off #93
#130
Def #132
#133
Talent #92
#101
SP+ #126
#134
SP+ Off #103
#133
SP+ Def #133
#134

Rematch from Week 7
Ball State 3.0 (58.0)
Ball State won at Kent State this year (37-35)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Kent State last year (37-35)
Ball State beat Kent State in 2023 (34-3)
Ball State beat Kent State in 2022 (27-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dix Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 63°

Team Information
Injuries: BALL | KENT
Depth Chart: BALL | KENT
Rosters: BALL | KENT
(#134) Kent State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -30.295 #134
Offense Rating: 8.84 #130
Defense Rating: 22.62 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -33.0 #134
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #134
Talent Rating: 488.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 30%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.89 PPO
Awful Run Success 33%
Awful Pass Success 29%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.34 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Kent State Notes
(11/27) Avg score 14 -44. Total outscored 529-167
(11/18) Took 1st lead vs M OH, all 34 straight, may not W
(11/7) CFB worst. New Fr QB new suck. Rgame sucks
(11/7) Have never had a lead in any game at 0-9
(10/22) Def stop rate last in CFB (36%) into week 9
(10/13) Pass game expl in shootout L (Ball St). Def bad
(10/4) Sched brutal but bottom 5 in Every Off/Def stat
(9/29) Outscored 234-57 by four P4 opps this year
(9/26) Top 2 QBs out for season, 3rd QB looks hurt
(9/26) Worst team in CFB, top QBs hurt. Burns sucks?


  
Ball State's OC Jared Elliott
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kadin Semonza27542764%290025106.8
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)15059744.040
Vaughn Pemberton6127624.541
Cam Pickett17170210.034
TJ Horton2310704.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tanner Koziol9483988.933
Cam Pickett49528210.865
Justin Bowick (Tr)20383319.257
Braedon Sloan (Tr)29329111.372

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
George Udo (Tr)782111
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Joey Stemler566260
D.D. Snyder552001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Joey Stemler566260
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Norwood (Tr)382005
Thailand Baldwin233003
Scott Hudson31102

Kent State's OC Mark Carney
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devin Kargman458255%432325.3
Ruel Tomlinson112839%73022.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ky Thomas13555014.138
Curtis Douglas4814503.019
Jahzae Kimbrough2711404.218
Ayden Harris2911013.813
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chrishon Mccray40705917.668
Jay Jay Etheridge1413719.837
Dashawn Martin8108013.527
Ky Thomas105305.310

View Kent State's Full Roster
Kent State's DC Kody Morgan
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Baka903005
Mason Woods (Tr)684001
Tevin Tucker652002
Rocco Nicholl611032
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Stephen Daley519463
Kaden Beatty193101
Lavell Gibson101140
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Baka903005
Stephen Daley519463
Dallas Branch (Tr)230003