Ball State at Kent State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden Flashes

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ball State -3 (58.0) (-148) Open: -7.0
Ball State 37 - Kent State: 35 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KENT coming off BYE
BALL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ball State -9 (SP+ BALL -13)
Projected Score: BALL: 35 - KENT: 26 (62)
BALL Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BALL Travel: 224 miles

Golden Flashes (0 - 12) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Kenni Burns (1 - 11)
Avg Score : 14 - 44 (20 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 12 (#134)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
KENT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Kent State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kent State at Pittsburgh	+23.5	55.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/7	Kent State vs St. Francis (PA)	-17.5	49.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kent State at Tennessee	+49.5	61.5	L 0 - 71	O	N
Sat 9/21	Kent State at Penn State	+49.0	58.0	L 0 - 56	U	N
Sat 9/28	Kent State vs Eastern Michigan	+14.0	46.0	L 33 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kent State vs Ball State	+3.0	58.0	L 35 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Kent State at Bowling Green	+24.0	54.5	L 6 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Kent State at Western Michigan	+19.0	61.0	L 21 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Kent State vs Ohio	+20.5	53.5	L 0 - 41	U	N
Wed 11/13	Kent State at Miami (OH)	+31.0	47.5	L 7 - 34	U	Y
Tue 11/19	Kent State vs Akron	+10.5	49.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Tue 11/26	Kent State at Buffalo	+23.5	50.5	L 7 - 43	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	25.3	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	40.1	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
KENT	#131 (.01)	30% (134)	13.9	33% (132)	2.57 (128)	78	29% (134)	155	2.89 (130)	#133 (.35)	50% (131)	44.1	50% (123)	51% (130)	4.34 (115)	35.7	1.7	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
KENT	#131 (.01)	30% (134)		33% (132)	2.57 (128)	78	29% (134)	155	2.89 (130)	#133 (.35)	50% (131)		50% (123)	51% (130)	4.34 (115)	35.7	1.7	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	25.3	23	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14
KENT Defense	12	44.1	38.2	50.1%	4.34	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	50%	51%	12%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	40.1	44.9	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32
KENT Offense	12	13.9	20.4	30.5%	2.89	1.7	13	233	78	155	2.4	47%	51%	33%	29%	28%	.01

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3
Kent State	12	26:52	12.9	19%	38%	4.8	35.7	1.7	0.9	4.7	1.5	0	27.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)
KENT Defense	12	55% (113)	50% (123)	-	-	-	-	.3 (132)	3.58 (133)	81% (115)	8% (111)	1.13 (122)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)
KENT Offense	12	47% (91)	33% (132)	32.3	77.5	2.4	3 (134)	-.07 (132)	2.57 (128)	61% (123)	19% (134)	0.95 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)
KENT Defense	12	45% (25)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.41 (126)	1.5 (23)	28% (124)	38% (127)	.42 (109)	4% (127)	1.8 (15)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)
KENT Offense	12	51% (54)	29% (134)	11.6	24.5	155.4	6.3	13.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.14 (109)	2.1 (2)	41% (134)	19% (134)	.11 (132)	8% (128)	2.7 (1)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09 Kent State: -30.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 Kent State: -33.0

Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -30.295 #134
Kent State's Offense Rating: 8.84 #130
Kent State's Defense Rating: 22.62 #133
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Kent State's 2024 Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0
Kent State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -33.0 #134
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #133
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #134

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ball State 35
Kent State 26

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Kent State 36
Ball State 31

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Ball State 33
Kent State 30

Total Points: 63

Kent State Scoring
Offense: 13.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 44.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.2

Kent State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 12
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/05	Ball State	17	Kent State	13	Ball State -3	Ball State	48.5	Under
2024	10/12	Kent State	35	Ball State	37	Ball State -3	Kent State	58.0	Over
2023	11/18	Ball State	34	Kent State	3	Ball State -10.5	Ball State	41.5	Under
2022	11/01	Kent State	20	Ball State	27	Kent State -7	Ball State	61.5	Under
2019	11/23	Kent State	41	Ball State	38	Ball State -3	Kent State	67.5	Over
2018	09/29	Ball State	52	Kent State	24	Ball State -7	Ball State	62.0	Over
2013	10/12	Ball State	27	Kent State	24	Ball State -11	Kent State	0
2012	09/29	Kent State	45	Ball State	43
2010	10/30	Kent State	33	Ball State	14
2008	09/27	Ball State	41	Kent State	20
2006	11/24	Ball State	30	Kent State	6
2003	10/04	Kent State	17	Ball State	34
2001	11/10	Ball State	18	Kent State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kent State	4	3	3 Overs
Ball State	9	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	5 - 2	3 - 2	2 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 9	2 - 5	0 - 2	2 - 3

(#126) BALL at (#134) KENT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	KENT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#126	#134
SP+SP+	#126	#134
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#136
OffenseOff	#93	#136
DefenseDef	#136	#130
Spec TeamsST	#111	#108
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Kent State Notes(11/27) 0-12, killed by Buff. CFB worst, HC Burns 1-23
(11/27) Avg score 14 -44. Total outscored 529-167
(11/18) Took 1st lead vs M OH, all 34 straight, may not W
(11/7) CFB worst. New Fr QB new suck. Rgame sucks
(11/7) Have never had a lead in any game at 0-9
(10/22) Def stop rate last in CFB (36%) into week 9
(10/13) Pass game expl in shootout L (Ball St). Def bad
(10/4) Sched brutal but bottom 5 in Every Off/Def stat
(9/29) Outscored 234-57 by four P4 opps this year
(9/26) Top 2 QBs out for season, 3rd QB looks hurt
(9/26) Worst team in CFB, top QBs hurt. Burns sucks?
(9/26) Outrushed 207-78 in L vs St Francis?
Kent State Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	KENT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#130
SuccessSuc	#78	#131
ExplosiveExp	#81	#79
PPAPPA	#98	#133
PowerPwr	#93	#133
SP+SP+	#103	#134
Pts POPPO	#65	#115
HavocHav	#119	#127

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	KENT Def
Run GameRun	#131	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#123
Run ExplRExp	#117	#122
PPAExp	#91	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#133
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#133
TackleTak	-	#113

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	KENT Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#130
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#23
PPAExp	#98	#126
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#38	#71
F7 HavocF7	#99	#111
DB HavocDB	#123	#127

Kent State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	KENT Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#136	#136
SuccessSuc	#134	#118
ExplosiveExp	#1	#126
PPAPPA	#131	#128
PowerPwr	#130	#132
SP+SP+	#133	#133
Pts POPPO	#130	#133
HavocHav	#134	#116

Kent State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	KENT Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#135	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#103
Run ExplRExp	#72	#110
PPAExp	#132	#116
Run BlockR Blk	#136	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#77
TackleTak	-	#121

Kent State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	KENT Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#132	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#134	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#2	#119
PPAExp	#109	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#119	#61
F7 HavocF7	#134	#103
DB HavocDB	#128	#115

Program Comparison
KENT 5 Year Profile: Declining Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dix Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 63°

Rematch from Week 7
Ball State 3.0 (58.0)
Ball State won at Kent State this year (37-35)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Kent State last year (37-35)
Ball State beat Kent State in 2023 (34-3)
Ball State beat Kent State in 2022 (27-20)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4

KENT's OC Mark Carney (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tommy Ulatowski	81	175	46%	1342	15	8	7.7
Devin Kargman	45	82	55%	432	3	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ky Thomas	135	550	1	4.1	38
Curtis Douglas	48	145	0	3.0	19
Jahzae Kimbrough	27	114	0	4.2	18
Ayden Harris	29	110	1	3.8	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chrishon Mccray	40	705	9	17.6	68
Luke Floriea	44	688	7	15.6	80
Jay Jay Etheridge	14	137	1	9.8	37
Dashawn Martin	8	108	0	13.5	27

View Kent State's Full Roster

KENT's DC David Duggan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Josh Baka	90	3	0	5
Mason Woods (Tr)	68	4	0	1
Tevin Tucker	65	2	0	2
Rocco Nicholl	61	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Olds (Tr)	42	7	6	2	1
Stephen Daley	51	9	4	6	3
Matt Harmon	56	7	2	5	1
Kaden Beatty	19	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josh Baka	90	3	0	0	5
Naim Muhammad	24	2	1	1	3
Stephen Daley	51	9	4	6	3