Ball State at James Madison - 2024 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at James Madison Dukes

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (1:30 PM EDT)
James Madison -22 (56.5) (-1600) Open: -17.0
James Madison 63 - Ball State: 7

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL 3rd straight Road Game
BALL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: James Madison -25.5 (SP+ JMU -27)
Projected Score: BALL: 14 - JMU: 40 (54)
JMU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 52%
BALL Travel: 371 miles

Dukes (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (40 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
JMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

James Madison's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	James Madison at Charlotte	-6.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	James Madison vs Gardner-Webb	-35.5	50.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	James Madison at North Carolina	+10.0	48.0	W 70 - 50	O	Y
Sat 9/28	James Madison vs Ball State	-22.0	56.5	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/5	James Madison at UL Monroe	-16.5	48.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/10	James Madison vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	59.0	W 39 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	James Madison at Georgia Southern	-9.5	58.5	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/26	James Madison vs Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 32 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	James Madison vs Georgia State	-14.5	53.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	James Madison at Old Dominion	-1.5	51.0	W 35 - 32	O	Y
Sat 11/23	James Madison at App State	-7.5	57.5	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/30	James Madison vs Marshall	-2.5	52.5	L 33 - 35	O	N
Wed 12/18	James Madison vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	15.8	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	29.8	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9
JMU	#44 (.24)	46% (27)	37.1	40% (102)	2.75 (121)	133	52% (7)	286	3.92 (64)	#14 (.09)	33% (4)	18.4	29% (1)	37% (19)	2.86 (9)	40.1	1.2	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
JMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	15.8	9.7	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14
JMU Defense	13	18.4	15	33.2%	2.86	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	29%	37%	24%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	29.8	35.7	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18
JMU Offense	13	37.1	40	45.6%	3.92	1.2	21	419	133	286	3.9	47%	52%	40%	52%	17%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8
James Madison	13	31:15	21.2	37%	50%	5.5	40.1	1.2	1.6	8.5	3.4	3	33.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)
JMU Defense	13	42% (6)	29% (1)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (8)	2.18 (1)	61% (10)	15% (2)	1.13 (117)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)
JMU Offense	13	47% (94)	40% (102)	34.2	133.2	3.9	17 (81)	.03 (121)	2.75 (121)	57% (131)	10% (69)	0.89 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)
JMU Defense	13	57% (127)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.24 (51)	1.7 (115)	38% (5)	27% (24)	.28 (48)	9% (4)	2.1 (77)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)
JMU Offense	13	52% (43)	52% (7)	22.2	33	285.8	8.7	12.9	36 (5)	11 (68)	.48 (13)	1.5 (90)	29% (25)	33% (51)	.38 (51)	7% (98)	2 (74)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 239.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09 James Madison: 3.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8 James Madison: 7.5

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 3.885 #82
James Madison's Offense Rating: 15.14 #106
James Madison's Defense Rating: 4.30 #23
2024 Talent Rating: 172.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
James Madison's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
James Madison's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #41
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #49
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
James Madison 40
Ball State 14

Projected Total Points: 54

James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 40
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

James Madison's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	James Madison	63	Ball State	7	James Madison -22	James Madison	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
James Madison	1	1	1 Overs
Ball State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#126) BALL at (#82) JMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	JMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#126	#82
SP+SP+	#126	#41
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#26
OffenseOff	#93	#63
DefenseDef	#136	#18
Spec TeamsST	#111	#46
TalentTal	#101	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

James Madison Notes(12/18) DL v good, DE O'Neill is elite, #2 good as well
(12/18) Great job by staff. Lost HC/OC/DC/portals, 9-4
(12/1) 2 str WTF L's to finish, 2 OT L to Marshall
(12/1) Rgame good, 244/4.6 ypc, QB Barnett eff. Bad L
(11/25) WTF L @ App, box score W but 2 TOs, 9 flags
(11/25) 3 L's as big favorites under 1st yr Chesney, why?
(11/18) Rgame good, QB meh in close W @ ODU
(10/22) Def stop rate 77% (#7) even after shocking GaSo L
(10/20) Barnett awful in bad L (Ga So), Rgame abysmal
(10/16) Into week 8 lead nation with 17 Def TO's
(10/10) QB Barnett has 3 games with 3 TDs in 1st half
(10/10) Rgame dominates. QB Barnett good. Tough team
James Madison Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	JMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#18
SuccessSuc	#95	#4
ExplosiveExp	#126	#128
PPAPPA	#97	#14
PowerPwr	#93	#23
SP+SP+	#103	#40
Pts POPPO	#105	#9
HavocHav	#85	#1

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	JMU Def
Run GameRun	#131	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#1
Run ExplRExp	#70	#117
PPAExp	#38	#8
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#1
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#2
TackleTak	-	#62

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	JMU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#115
PPAExp	#128	#51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#38	#24
F7 HavocF7	#112	#2
DB HavocDB	#25	#4

James Madison on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	JMU Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#63	#136
SuccessSuc	#27	#66
ExplosiveExp	#82	#16
PPAPPA	#44	#70
PowerPwr	#106	#132
SP+SP+	#49	#133
Pts POPPO	#64	#70
HavocHav	#84	#60

James Madison Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	JMU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#35	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#102	#65
Run ExplRExp	#114	#23
PPAExp	#121	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#132	#99
TackleTak	-	#121

James Madison Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	JMU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#29
PPAExp	#13	#70
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#61
F7 HavocF7	#69	#35
DB HavocDB	#98	#97

Program Comparison
JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bridgeforth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
James Madison -22.0 (56.5)
James Madison won vs Ball State this year (63-7)

Previous Matchups
James Madison beat Ball State in 2024 (63-7)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4

JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alonza Barnett	212	354	60%	2596	26	4	7.3
Billy Atkins	16	24	67%	181	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
George Pettaway (Tr)	163	976	5	6.0	31
Alonza Barnett	135	450	7	3.3	50
Wayne Knight	77	449	2	5.8	59
Jobi Malary (Tr)	45	269	2	6.0	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Dollison	37	633	6	17.1	73
Yamir Knight	52	605	4	11.6	68
Taylor Thompson	33	448	6	13.6	36
Cameron Ross	37	443	3	12.0	43

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Lyle Hemphill (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Thomas	73	8	1	1	3
Khairi Manns (Tr)	70	14	9	8	2
Jacob Dobbs (Tr)	69	4	3	2	0
Chris Shearin (Tr)	58	2	0	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eric O'Neill (Tr)	53	18	13	16	3
Khairi Manns (Tr)	70	14	9	8	2
Jacob Dobbs (Tr)	69	4	3	2	0
Trent Hendrick	54	9	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Terrence Spence (Tr)	38	1	0	7
Jordan Taylor (Tr)	24	0	0	5
Chris Shearin (Tr)	58	2	2	4