Ball State at Ohio Game Matchup
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Ohio BobcatsOhio logo
Friday, November 29th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Ohio -17.5 (51.5) (-1000)  Open: -14.5 | 52.5
Ohio 42 - Ball State: 21  (Mid-American)

 
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
BALL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -21   (SP+ OHIO -22)

Projected Score: BALL: 17 - OHIO: 38 (57)
OHIO Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
BALL Travel: 186 miles
Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (34 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Ball State vs Missouri State-2.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Ball State at Miami+36.555.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 9/21 Ball State at Central Michigan+6.551.0L 34 - 37OY
Sat 9/28 Ball State at James Madison+22.056.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 10/5 Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.057.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/12 Ball State at Kent State-3.058.0W 37 - 35ON
Sat 10/19 Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.557.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.547.5W 25 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.548.5L 21 - 27UY
Tue 11/12 Ball State at Buffalo+3.555.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 11/23 Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.554.5L 13 - 38UN
Fri 11/29 Ball State at Ohio+17.551.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 4

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ohio at Syracuse+17.547.5L 22 - 38OY
Sat 9/7 Ohio vs South Alabama+1.555.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/14 Ohio vs Morgan State-24.545.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/21 Ohio at Kentucky+19.042.0L 6 - 41ON
Sat 9/28 Ohio vs Akron-8.546.0W 30 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Ohio at Central Michigan-3.050.5W 27 - 25ON
Sat 10/19 Ohio at Miami (OH)+3.543.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 10/26 Ohio vs Buffalo-4.046.5W 47 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Ohio at Kent State-20.553.5W 41 - 0UY
Wed 11/13 Ohio vs Eastern Michigan-10.551.5W 35 - 10UY
Wed 11/20 Ohio at Toledo+1.547.0W 24 - 7UY
Fri 11/29 Ohio vs Ball State-17.551.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Ohio vs Miami (OH)+2.543.5W 38 - 3UY
Fri 12/20 Ohio vs Jacksonville State-6.557.5W 30 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 8
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#97 (.14)40% (95)25.345% (50)3.35 (22)17133% (127)1373.31 (105)#70 (.18)42% (66)40.143% (65)42% (70)3.81 (70)45.21.30.9
OHIO#76 (.18)45% (33)29.344% (61)2.99 (90)14448% (17)2043.61 (92)#3 (.02)35% (8)18.135% (9)36% (12)2.45 (2)51.811.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OHIO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1225.32339.8%3.311.3183081711374.458%41%45%33%17%.14
OHIO Defense1318.113.835%2.451.8 - - - - - 44%54%35%36%21%.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1240.144.941.8%3.810.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%42%17%.18
OHIO Offense1329.333.745.2%3.611213481442043.952%47%44%48%15%.18

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1232:4418.138%56%5.245.21.30.95.72.1028.8
Ohio1333:2320.846%50%5.651.811.87.42.8131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1258% (14)45% (50)39.3171.44.415 (100).21 (38)3.35 (22)83% (8)12% (112)0.99 (70)
OHIO Defense1344% (10)35% (9) - - - - -.06 (3)2.54 (8)70% (47)15% (3)1.07 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1248% (44)43% (65) - - - - .11 (45)3.08 (62)79% (102)11% (35)0.89 (23)
OHIO Offense1352% (46)44% (61)37.3144.43.918 (77).1 (95)2.99 (90)73% (75)9% (39)0.81 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1241% (119)33% (127)15.125.3136.75.49.19 (126)8 (30).05 (128)1.4 (130)33% (92)24% (123).18 (110)5% (25)2 (104)
OHIO Defense1354% (123)36% (12) - - - - - - 15 (15).14 (14)1.5 (30)36% (15)23% (5).19 (15)5% (94)1.9 (27)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1251% (93)42% (70) - - - - - - 5 (126).27 (70)1.5 (29)32% (61)28% (30).21 (20)5% (97)2 (39)
OHIO Offense1347% (91)48% (17)18.429.5203.66.911.116 (92)9 (40).31 (57)1.4 (123)30% (31)35% (30).32 (72)6% (84)1.7 (131)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09   Ohio: -0.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8   Ohio: 2.3




Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -0.48 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 376.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio 38
Ball State 17


Projected Total Points: 57
Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.7
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.8

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29Ohio42Ball State21OhioOhio -17.5Ohio51.5Over
202211/15Ball State18Ohio32OhioOhio -3.5Ohio57.5Under
201910/26Ball State21Ohio34OhioBall State -1.5Ohio60.0Under
201810/25Ohio52Ball State14OhioOhio -10.5Ohio66.0Push
201511/17Ohio48Ball State31OhioOhio -7Ohio56.0Over
201211/14Ball State52Ohio27Ball State
201110/15Ohio20Ball State23Ball State
200910/31Ball State17Ohio20Ohio
200510/22Ohio38Ball State21Ohio
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio752 Overs
Ball State202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 43 - 23 - 10 - 1
Road Teams4 - 52 - 31 - 01 - 3

(#126) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
Ball State     Ratings Matchup     Ohio
Power #126
#93
Off #93
#68
Def #132
#63
Talent #92
#122
SP+ #126
#63
SP+ Off #103
#67
SP+ Def #133
#47

Rematch from Week 14
Ohio -17.5 (51.5)
Ohio won vs Ball State this year (42-21)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Ball State last year (42-21)
Ohio beat Ball State in 2022 (32-18)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 33° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: BALL | OHIO
Depth Chart: BALL | OHIO
Rosters: BALL | OHIO
(#93) Ohio Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.48 #93
Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47
Talent Rating: 376.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Good Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Great Run Def Success 34%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Ohio Notes
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG


  
Ball State's OC Jared Elliott
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kadin Semonza27542764%290025106.8
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)15059744.040
Vaughn Pemberton6127624.541
Cam Pickett17170210.034
TJ Horton2310704.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tanner Koziol9483988.933
Cam Pickett49528210.865
Justin Bowick (Tr)20383319.257
Braedon Sloan (Tr)29329111.372

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
George Udo (Tr)782111
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Joey Stemler566260
D.D. Snyder552001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Joey Stemler566260
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Norwood (Tr)382005
Thailand Baldwin233003
Scott Hudson31102

Ohio's OC Brian Smith
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Navarro19529566%242313118.2
Nick Poulos224945%271215.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)237121595.146
Parker Navarro1601047186.555
Rickey Hunt7639325.259
Nick Poulos2814915.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)781235815.875
Chase Hendricks40471111.856
Rodney Harris II23299013.052
Mason Williams19211211.121

View Ohio's Full Roster
Ohio's DC John Hauser
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Leake (Tr)945113
Dustin Johnson (Tr)772004
Shay Taylor7411434
Marcel Walker (Tr)568672
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradley Weaver44169100
Marcel Walker (Tr)568672
Shay Taylor7411434
Kadin Schmitz324400
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Walker537007
Tank Pearson502006
Shay Taylor7411434