Buffalo at UConn - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
UConn -6 (44.5) (-218) Open: -3.0
UConn 47 - Buffalo: 3

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BUFF 2nd straight Road Game
CONN 2nd straight Home Game
CONN is playing their 5th straight game
BUFF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UConn -9.5 (SP+ CONN -6)
Projected Score: BUFF: 20 - CONN: 29 (49)
CONN Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
BUFF Travel: 326 miles

Huskies (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Jim L. Mora (9 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (37 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

UConn's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UConn at Maryland	+19.0	45.5	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/7	UConn vs Merrimack	-14.5	44.5	W 63 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UConn at Duke	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/21	UConn vs Florida Atlantic	-1.0	46.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/28	UConn vs Buffalo	-6.0	44.5	W 47 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/5	UConn vs Temple	-17.5	49.0	W 29 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	UConn vs Wake Forest	+2.5	55.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	UConn vs Rice	-6.5	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/1	UConn vs Georgia State	-7.0	48.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/9	UConn at UAB	-7.5	54.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UConn at Syracuse	+10.0	53.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UConn at Massachusetts	-9.5	49.5	W 47 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	UConn vs North Carolina	+2.0	53.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)	28.8	38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)	26.4	43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)	31.9	43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)	23.1	42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)		43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)		42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	13	28.8	20	39.6%	4.22	1	17	329	153	176	4.2	55%	45%	38%	42%	17%	.17
CONN Defense	13	23.1	16.3	39.4%	3.36	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	42%	37%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	13	26.4	33.7	42.8%	3.84	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	43%	18%	.17
CONN Offense	13	31.9	36.9	41.8%	4.09	1.2	19	371	184	187	5.2	54%	46%	43%	40%	13%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	13	26:20	17.2	34%	52%	4	39.3	1	1.5	6.3	2.2	2	31.2
UConn	13	27:16	19.1	37%	47%	5	50.4	1.2	1.1	5.2	1.6	2	31.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	13	55% (36)	38% (115)	36.2	153.3	4.2	23 (52)	.08 (96)	2.7 (117)	61% (122)	10% (84)	1.11 (17)
CONN Defense	13	49% (45)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.05 (29)	2.76 (31)	63% (18)	10% (78)	0.89 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.08 (47)	3.01 (68)	63% (16)	12% (35)	0.94 (45)
CONN Offense	13	54% (39)	43% (82)	35.7	184.1	5.2	22 (55)	.18 (40)	3.07 (58)	77% (39)	7% (13)	1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	13	45% (99)	42% (70)	14.2	25.2	175.8	7	12.4	19 (65)	6 (10)	.29 (47)	1.5 (80)	33% (97)	31% (75)	.34 (66)	6% (89)	1.9 (106)
CONN Defense	13	51% (84)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.17 (35)	1.5 (37)	32% (72)	26% (17)	.28 (57)	7% (23)	2.1 (97)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	13	53% (109)	43% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.28 (91)	1.7 (97)	32% (58)	29% (40)	.18 (18)	7% (38)	2.2 (100)
CONN Offense	13	46% (96)	40% (84)	15.8	28.6	186.8	6.5	11.8	23 (41)	9 (48)	.23 (85)	1.5 (114)	30% (47)	30% (88)	.29 (86)	6% (87)	2 (82)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53 UConn: 1.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 UConn: 1.5

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 1.025 #80
UConn's Offense Rating: 17.51 #89
UConn's Defense Rating: 6.05 #36
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
UConn's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
UConn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #67
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #70
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #60

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UConn 29
Buffalo 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
UConn 35
Buffalo 16

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
UConn 32
Buffalo 22

Total Points: 54

UConn Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.9
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.3

UConn's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Buffalo	17	UConn	20	UConn -3	NA	51.5	Under
2024	09/28	UConn	47	Buffalo	3	UConn -6	UConn	44.5	Over
2013	09/28	Buffalo	41	UConn	12	Connecticut -2.5	Buffalo	0
2012	09/29	UConn	24	Buffalo	17
2011	09/24	Buffalo	3	UConn	17
2010	09/25	UConn	45	Buffalo	21
2008	01/03	UConn	38	Buffalo	20
2005	09/01	UConn	38	Buffalo	0
2004	11/20	UConn	29	Buffalo	0
2003	09/20	Buffalo	7	UConn	38
2002	09/14	Buffalo	3	UConn	24
2001	09/22	UConn	20	Buffalo	37
2000	09/15	Buffalo	21	UConn	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	11	1	1 Overs
Buffalo	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 6	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 7	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#106) BUFF at (#80) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	CONN
Power RatePwr	#106	#80
SP+SP+	#87	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#42
OffenseOff	#96	#50
DefenseDef	#42	#51
Spec TeamsST	#110	#30
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

UConn Notes(11/25) Pass D torched by Cuse. Off good, fought hard
(11/3) Rgame 272, 6.5 ypc in W (Ga St). Bowl eligible
(10/28) Sched light, but Def in top 20 in most categories
(10/28) Final 3 games on road, but could win 3/4 for 8 W's
(10/18) QB Fagnano or Evers, doesn't really matter
(10/4) Off lights out, Rgame nearly 250 ypg. Who's QB?
(8/11) Won't leave home weeks 4 - 10
(8/3) Mora grabbed a lot of P5 talent via portal
(7/30) Should improve from 3 W's LY, fringe bowl?
(7/30) QB Fagano back (inj). Add Ewers (bust @ OU/Wisc)
(7/30) Portals really good from bigger schools, good WR
(7/30) Def hoping new adds improve pretty poor unit LY
UConn Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CONN Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#51
SuccessSuc	#104	#37
ExplosiveExp	#41	#26
PPAPPA	#77	#25
PowerPwr	#104	#36
SP+SP+	#84	#60
Pts POPPO	#41	#26
HavocHav	#91	#53

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#116	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#63
Run ExplRExp	#17	#28
PPAExp	#96	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#117	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#96	#26
TackleTak	-	#57

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#37
PPAExp	#47	#35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#111
F7 HavocF7	#84	#78
DB HavocDB	#89	#23

UConn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#50	#42
SuccessSuc	#82	#82
ExplosiveExp	#99	#97
PPAPPA	#67	#72
PowerPwr	#89	#93
SP+SP+	#70	#93
Pts POPPO	#51	#74
HavocHav	#30	#33

UConn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#87	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#82	#71
Run ExplRExp	#45	#45
PPAExp	#40	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#64
TackleTak	-	#18

UConn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#114	#97
PPAExp	#85	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#54	#90
F7 HavocF7	#13	#35
DB HavocDB	#87	#38

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 74° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 5
UConn -6.0 (44.5)
UConn won vs Buffalo this year (47-3)

Previous Matchups
UConn beat Buffalo last year (47-3)

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5

CONN's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Fagnano	120	207	58%	1631	20	4	7.9
Nick Evers (Tr)	97	180	54%	918	5	5	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Edwards	146	830	8	5.7	71
Durell Robinson (Tr)	107	731	8	6.8	68
Jayden Brown	98	578	2	5.9	52
Nick Evers (Tr)	80	245	3	3.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Bell (Tr)	50	860	5	17.2	70
TJ Sheffield (Tr)	54	505	3	9.4	58
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	32	307	3	9.6	26
Louis Hansen	24	236	4	9.8	55

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald (Tr)	125	10	4	8	3
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Malik Dixon	67	1	0	0	3
Rante Jones	56	2	0	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Jayden McDonald (Tr)	125	10	4	8	3
Pryce Yates	21	7	4	5	1
Langston Hardy	44	7	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Cam Chadwick	47	1	0	1	6
Dalmont Gourdine	27	4	1	4	6