Western Michigan at Buffalo - 2024 Matchup Preview
Western Michigan logo Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Western Michigan -1 (49.5) (-115)  Open: -1.0
Western Michigan 48 - Buffalo: 41  (Mid-American)

 
Broncos (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 31 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -4.5   (SP+ BUFF -6)
Projected Score: WMU: 25 - BUFF: 29 (58)
WMU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
WMU Travel: 350 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Western Michigan at Wisconsin+24.057.0L 14 - 28UY
Sat 9/7 Western Michigan at Ohio State+37.554.5L 0 - 56ON
Sat 9/14 Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman-33.554.5W 59 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Western Michigan at Marshall+3.553.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/5 Western Michigan at Ball State-10.057.5W 45 - 42ON
Sat 10/12 Western Michigan vs Akron-9.548.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 10/19 Western Michigan at Buffalo-1.049.5W 48 - 41OY
Sat 10/26 Western Michigan vs Kent State-19.061.0W 52 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+2.551.5L 28 - 42ON
Tue 11/12 Western Michigan at Bowling Green+9.557.5L 13 - 31UN
Tue 11/19 Western Michigan at Central Michigan-6.056.0L 14 - 16UN
Sat 11/30 Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-6.556.5W 26 - 18UY
Sat 12/14 Western Michigan vs South Alabama+6.053.5L 23 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.545.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Buffalo at Missouri+34.553.5L 0 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.545.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.042.5W 23 - 20OY
Sat 9/28 Buffalo at UConn+6.044.5L 3 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Buffalo vs Toledo+10.544.5W 30 - 15OY
Sat 10/19 Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.049.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Buffalo at Ohio+4.046.5L 16 - 47ON
Sat 11/2 Buffalo at Akron+1.049.0W 41 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Buffalo vs Ball State-3.555.5W 51 - 48ON
Wed 11/20 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.053.5W 37 - 20OY
Tue 11/26 Buffalo vs Kent State-23.550.5W 43 - 7UY
Sat 1/4 Buffalo vs Liberty-4.550.5W 26 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU#85 (.16)40% (90)28.941% (87)3.09 (71)15340% (87)2113.89 (72)#92 (.22)44% (101)31.346% (99)44% (99)4.15 (105)62.31.11.5
BUFF#130 (.03)37% (116)28.843% (67)2.93 (102)13432% (129)1853.54 (95)#41 (.14)39% (33)26.437% (25)42% (68)3.55 (48)41.61.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Offense1228.92240.3%3.891.1203651532113.854%45%41%40%16%.16
BUFF Defense1226.422.338.7%3.551.6 - - - - - 56%43%37%42%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Defense1231.334.444.3%4.151.5 - - - - - 50%48%46%44%19%.22
BUFF Offense1228.838.237.4%3.541.6173191341853.751%48%43%32%16%.03

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Michigan1229:5519.636%49%7.162.31.11.55.22028.3
Buffalo1230:3217.234%37%4.841.61.61.65.71.4229.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Offense1254% (38)41% (87)39.9153.33.821 (54).15 (73)3.09 (71)75% (58)10% (66)1 (65)
BUFF Defense1256% (119)37% (25) - - - - .15 (76)2.82 (24)65% (25)12% (19)1.25 (131)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Defense1250% (74)46% (99) - - - - .17 (91)3.48 (127)81% (112)11% (44)0.95 (40)
BUFF Offense1251% (61)43% (67)36.3133.63.715 (100).09 (102)2.93 (102)65% (119)9% (40)0.92 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Offense1245% (98)40% (87)20.632.8211.26.510.313 (111)9 (40).2 (96)1.5 (105)30% (29)25% (113).25 (93)6% (88)2 (96)
BUFF Defense1243% (13)42% (68) - - - - - - 11 (53).2 (29)1.4 (18)35% (32)28% (39).23 (30)5% (95)2 (54)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Defense1248% (47)44% (99) - - - - - - 9 (87).33 (104)1.6 (78)31% (94)30% (71).23 (29)9% (7)1.9 (31)
BUFF Offense1248% (77)32% (129)17.732.8185.35.610.514 (106)11 (68).04 (130)1.5 (99)32% (68)26% (108).16 (116)8% (119)1.9 (109)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -10.37 #103
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 22.99 #41
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 15.82 #113
2024 Talent Rating: 588.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Western Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Western Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #105
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #86
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #120

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.37   Buffalo: -5.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.2   Buffalo: -4.0




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 31.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Western Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 29
Western Michigan 25

Projected Total Points: 58
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Buffalo41Western Michigan48Western MichiganWestern Michigan -1Western Michigan49.5Over
202110/02Buffalo17Western Michigan24Western MichiganWestern Michigan -7NA59.5Under
201710/07Buffalo68Western Michigan71Western MichiganWestern Michigan -7Buffalo51.0Over
201611/19Western Michigan38Buffalo0Western MichiganWestern Michigan -34Western Michigan55.5Under
201310/12Western Michigan0Buffalo33BuffaloBuffalo -11Buffalo0
201211/10Buffalo29Western Michigan24Buffalo
200910/24Western Michigan34Buffalo31Western Michigan
200810/11Buffalo28Western Michigan34Western Michigan
200510/01Western Michigan31Buffalo21Western Michigan
200210/05Buffalo17Western Michigan31Western Michigan
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo222 Overs
Western Michigan822 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 62 - 21 - 01 - 2
Road Teams6 - 42 - 22 - 10 - 1

(#103) Western Michigan Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.37 #103
Offense Rating: 22.99 #41
Defense Rating: 15.82 #113
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #105
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #86
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #120
Talent Rating: 588.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.11 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Good Pass Success 46%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Western Michigan Notes
(11/25) 3 str L's, zero Rgame, QB sucked, Vs EMU 4 bowl
(11/13) QBs/Rgame awful vs BG, Run Def torched in L
(11/7) TO's, stupidity cost vs N Ill. QB Wolff a fraud
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#125) into week 9
(10/20) Off torched Buffalo, Def awful vs both Pass & Run
(10/18) Better than record, sched rough, close losses
(10/13) Rgame good, Pass D torched by Akron. Def 4 TOs
(10/4) Run a lot w/ good success. Def awful so far
(10/4) Let's see how they play now sched lightens up
(8/15) DBs supposed to be near the best in the MAC
Western Michigan     Ratings Matchup     Buffalo
Power #103
#106
Off #41
#104
Def #113
#93
Talent #79
#120
SP+ #105
#87
SP+ Off #86
#84
SP+ Def #120
#93

Rematch from Week 8
Western Michigan 1.0 (49.5)
Western Michigan won at Buffalo this year (48-41)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Buffalo last year (48-41)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 65° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: WMU | BUFF
Depth Chart: WMU | BUFF
Rosters: WMU | BUFF
(#106) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all


  
Western Michigan's OC Walt Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Broc Lowry (Tr)4850%21002.6
Ryan Millmore010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Nixon132874126.692
Jalen Buckley12065785.561
Broc Lowry (Tr)2212335.640
Jamal Hailey660110.048
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malique Dieudonne12209217.443
Jordin Parker (Tr)12140011.738
Jalen Buckley129808.224
Christopher Toudle891111.423

View Western Michigan's Full Roster
Western Michigan's DC Scott Power
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tate Hallock845005
Aaron Wofford642114
Corey Walker387635
Anterio Thompson (Tr)342152
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Walker387635
Mason Nelson319311
Isaiah Green283240
Popeye Williams (Tr)192150
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tate Hallock845005
Corey Walker387635
Nyquan Washington313005

Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Ogbonna19033657%23811957.1
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
CJ Ogbonna12234682.826
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Lamar Sperling3915013.822
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
JJ Jenkins (Tr)36536414.990
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Taji Johnson (Tr)19215211.334

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
Marquis Cooper553018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Antonio Colclough (Tr)144341
Khalil Murdock15617241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Eddie Pleasant III (Tr)110005