Western Michigan at Buffalo - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Western Michigan -1 (49.5) (-115) Open: -1.0
Western Michigan 48 - Buffalo: 41 (Mid-American)

Broncos (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -4.5 (SP+ BUFF -6)
Projected Score: WMU: 21 - BUFF: 26 (47)
WMU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
WMU Travel: 350 miles

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WMU Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Western Michigan at Wisconsin	+24.0L14–28	57.0	L14–28	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Western Michigan at Ohio State	+37.5L0–56	54.5	L0–56	O	N
Sat 9/14	Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman	-33.5W59–31	54.5	W59–31	O	N
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28	Western Michigan at Marshall	+3.5L20–27	53.5	L20–27	U	N
Sat 10/5	Western Michigan at Ball State	-10.0W45–42	57.5	W45–42	O	N
Sat 10/12	Western Michigan vs Akron	-9.5W34–24	48.5	W34–24	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Western Michigan at Buffalo	-1.0W48–41	49.5	W48–41	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Western Michigan vs Kent State	-19.0W52–21	61.0	W52–21	O	Y
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6	Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+2.5L28–42	51.5	L28–42	O	N
Tue 11/12	Western Michigan at Bowling Green	+9.5L13–31	57.5	L13–31	U	N
Tue 11/19	Western Michigan at Central Michigan	-6.0L14–16	56.0	L14–16	U	N
Sat 11/30	Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5W26–18	56.5	W26–18	U	Y
Sat 12/14	Western Michigan vs South Alabama	+6.0L23–30	53.5	L23–30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5W30–13	45.5	W30–13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5L0–38	53.5	L0–38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5W34–3	45.5	W34–3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0W23–20	42.5	W23–20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0L3–47	44.5	L3–47	O	N
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5W30–15	44.5	W30–15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0L41–48	49.5	L41–48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0L16–47	46.5	L16–47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0W41–30	49.0	W41–30	O	Y
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5W51–48	55.5	W51–48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0W37–20	53.5	W37–20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5W43–7	50.5	W43–7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5W26–7	50.5	W26–7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#85 (.16)	40% (90)	24.9	41% (87)	3.09 (71)	153	40% (87)	211	3.89 (72)	#92 (.22)	44% (101)	17.4	46% (99)	44% (99)	4.15 (105)	62.3	1.1	1.5
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	24	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	23.5	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Offense	12	24.9	18.3	40.3%	3.89	1.1	20	365	153	211	3.8	54%	45%	41%	40%	16%	.16
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	24.1	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Defense	12	17.4	21.7	44.3%	4.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	46%	44%	19%	.22
BUFF Offense	12	24	24.6	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Michigan	12	29:55	19.6	36%	49%	7.1	62.3	1.1	1.5	5.2	2	0	28.3
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Offense	12	54% (38)	41% (87)	39.9	153.3	3.8	21 (54)	.15 (73)	3.09 (71)	75% (58)	10% (66)	1 (65)
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Defense	12	50% (74)	46% (99)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.48 (127)	81% (112)	11% (44)	0.95 (40)
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Offense	12	45% (98)	40% (87)	20.6	32.8	211.2	6.5	10.3	13 (111)	9 (40)	.2 (96)	1.5 (105)	30% (29)	25% (113)	.25 (93)	6% (88)	2 (96)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Defense	12	48% (47)	44% (99)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.33 (104)	1.6 (78)	31% (94)	30% (71)	.23 (29)	9% (7)	1.9 (31)
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -10.37 #103
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 22.99 #41
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 15.82 #113
2024 Talent Rating: 588.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Western Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Western Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #105
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #86
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #120

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 512.67
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.37 Buffalo: -5.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.2 Buffalo: -4.0

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 512.67
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 26
Western Michigan 21

Projected Total Points: 47

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Buffalo	41	Western Michigan	48	Western Michigan -1	Western Michigan	49.5	Over
2021	10/02	Buffalo	17	Western Michigan	24	Western Michigan -7	NA	59.5	Under
2017	10/07	Buffalo	68	Western Michigan	71	Western Michigan -7	Buffalo	51.0	Over
2016	11/19	Western Michigan	38	Buffalo	0	Western Michigan -34	Western Michigan	55.5	Under
2013	10/12	Western Michigan	0	Buffalo	33	Buffalo -11	Buffalo	0
2012	11/10	Buffalo	29	Western Michigan	24
2009	10/24	Western Michigan	34	Buffalo	31
2008	10/11	Buffalo	28	Western Michigan	34
2005	10/01	Western Michigan	31	Buffalo	21
2002	10/05	Buffalo	17	Western Michigan	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	2	2	2 Overs
Western Michigan	8	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	2 - 2	1 - 0	1 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 4	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1

(#103) WMU at (#106) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WMU	BUFF
Game ControlGC	#95	#126
Momentum ControlMC	#101	#95
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#103	#106
SP+SP+	#105	#87
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#79
OffenseOff	#7	#96
DefenseDef	#103	#42
Spec TeamsST	#70	#110
TalentTal	#79	#120
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Western Michigan Notes(12/15) Good fight in bowl (S Al), Run Def torched 260+
(11/25) 3 str L's, zero Rgame, QB sucked, Vs EMU 4 bowl
(11/13) QBs/Rgame awful vs BG, Run Def torched in L
(11/7) TO's, stupidity cost vs N Ill. QB Wolff a fraud
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#125) into week 9
(10/20) Off torched Buffalo, Def awful vs both Pass & Run
(10/18) Better than record, sched rough, close losses
(10/13) Rgame good, Pass D torched by Akron. Def 4 TOs
(10/4) Run a lot w/ good success. Def awful so far
(10/4) Let's see how they play now sched lightens up
(8/15) DBs supposed to be near the best in the MAC
(7/30) Lost OC/DCs. Hired OC/DC both fired LY (L Tech/IU)
Western Michigan Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Western Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BUFF Def
Game ControlGC	#84	#121
Momentum ControlMC	#114	#82
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#42
SuccessSuc	#90	#33
ExplosiveExp	#104	#99
PPAPPA	#85	#41
PowerPwr	#41	#93
SP+SP+	#86	#93
Pts POPPO	#72	#48
HavocHav	#71	#39

Western Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#40	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#25
Run ExplRExp	#65	#131
PPAExp	#73	#76
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#32
TackleTak	-	#18

Western Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#87	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#105	#18
PPAExp	#96	#29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#19	#90
F7 HavocF7	#66	#19
DB HavocDB	#88	#95

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	WMU Def
Game ControlGC	#134	#103
Momentum ControlMC	#109	#94
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#103
SuccessSuc	#116	#101
ExplosiveExp	#121	#56
PPAPPA	#130	#92
PowerPwr	#104	#113
SP+SP+	#84	#120
Pts POPPO	#95	#105
HavocHav	#79	#13

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#116	#107
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#99
Run ExplRExp	#103	#40
PPAExp	#102	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#101
TackleTak	-	#82

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#89
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#99
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#78
PPAExp	#130	#104
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#92
F7 HavocF7	#40	#44
DB HavocDB	#119	#7

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 65° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Western Michigan 1.0 (49.5)
Western Michigan won at Buffalo this year (48-41)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Buffalo in 2024 (48-41)

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hayden Wolff	191	285	67%	2214	17	7	7.8
Broc Lowry (Tr)	4	8	50%	21	0	0	2.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon	132	874	12	6.6	92
Jalen Buckley	120	657	8	5.5	61
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	104	567	3	5.5	70
Broc Lowry (Tr)	22	123	3	5.6	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenneth Womack	34	456	1	13.4	41
Blake Bosma	37	403	6	10.9	55
Anthony Sambucci	31	376	2	12.1	54
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	28	227	1	8.1	31

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Scott Power (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donald Willis	109	7	1	4	4
Tate Hallock	84	5	0	0	5
Jacob Wahlberg	78	2	1	1	1
Bilhal Kone	70	1	0	2	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Walker	38	7	6	3	5
Mason Nelson	31	9	3	1	1
Isaiah Green	28	3	2	4	0
Donald Willis	109	7	1	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bilhal Kone	70	1	0	2	8
Nyquan Washington	31	3	0	0	5
Corey Walker	38	7	6	3	5

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5