Buffalo at Missouri - 2024 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls at Missouri TigersMissouri logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -34.5 (53.5) (-20000)  Open: -34.5 | 51.5
Missouri 38 - Buffalo: 0

 
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MIZ 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Missouri -23.5   (SP+ MIZ -18)

Projected Score: BUFF: 14 - MIZ: 38 (52)
MIZ Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
BUFF Travel: 760 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 20 (32 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.545.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Buffalo at Missouri+34.553.5L 0 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.545.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.042.5W 23 - 20OY
Sat 9/28 Buffalo at UConn+6.044.5L 3 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Buffalo vs Toledo+10.544.5W 30 - 15OY
Sat 10/19 Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.049.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Buffalo at Ohio+4.046.5L 16 - 47ON
Sat 11/2 Buffalo at Akron+1.049.0W 41 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Buffalo vs Ball State-3.555.5W 51 - 48ON
Wed 11/20 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.053.5W 37 - 20OY
Tue 11/26 Buffalo vs Kent State-23.550.5W 43 - 7UY
Sat 1/4 Buffalo vs Liberty-4.550.5W 26 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Missouri vs Murray State-50.562.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Missouri vs Buffalo-34.553.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Missouri vs Boston College-14.551.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 Missouri vs Vanderbilt-17.552.0W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Missouri at Texas A&M+3.047.5L 10 - 41ON
Sat 10/12 Missouri at Massachusetts-27.054.0W 45 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Missouri vs Auburn-3.549.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 10/26 Missouri at Alabama+16.051.5L 0 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Missouri vs Oklahoma+3.541.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 11/16 Missouri at South Carolina+10.542.5L 30 - 34OY
Sat 11/23 Missouri at Mississippi State-9.558.0W 39 - 20OY
Sat 11/30 Missouri vs Arkansas-3.551.5W 28 - 21UY
Mon 12/30 Missouri vs Iowa-1.041.0W 27 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)28.838% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)26.443% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)28.947% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)20.442% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)38% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)43% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)47% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)42% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense1328.82039.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17
MIZ Defense1320.415.640.6%3.381.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1326.433.742.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
MIZ Offense1328.932.144%3.910.7193611592024.353%47%47%41%11%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Missouri1330:2819.547%53%5.2460.71.251.9231
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)
MIZ Defense1353% (91)42% (57) - - - - .01 (18)2.75 (29)73% (64)12% (22)0.92 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
MIZ Offense1353% (48)47% (28)37.1158.74.325 (41).12 (73)3.04 (67)79% (26)8% (31)0.9 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)
MIZ Defense1347% (47)39% (56) - - - - - - 6 (109).23 (65)1.6 (70)32% (61)27% (20).2 (27)6% (54)2 (65)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
MIZ Offense1347% (85)41% (80)17.828.5202.27.111.412 (118)5 (6).26 (66)1.6 (69)30% (49)33% (52).39 (44)4% (10)2.1 (49)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53   Missouri: 15.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0   Missouri: 14.0




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 15.405 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 38
Buffalo 14


Total Points: 52

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.1
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Missouri38Buffalo0MissouriMissouri -34.5Missouri53.5Under
200809/20Missouri42Buffalo21Missouri
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri210 Overs
Buffalo001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#106) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Buffalo has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 4 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all

Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)

Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIZBUFF
OverallOver#18#56
OffenseOff#24#77
DefenseDef#27#31
Special TeamsST#11#90
PassingPass#61#85
RushingRush#37#84
Run BlockRBLK#5#52
Pass BlockPBLK#29#85
Route RunningWR Rt#54#60
TacklingTkl#47#16
Run DefenseR Def#31#44
Pass Rush DefPRush#31#77
Coverage DefCov#65#21

Rematch from Week 2
Missouri -34.5 (53.5)
Missouri won vs Buffalo this year (38-0)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Buffalo last year (38-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | MIZ
Depth Chart: BUFF | MIZ
Rosters: BUFF | MIZ
(#26) Missouri Info
Power Rating: 15.405 #26
Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Missouri has won 1 straight
Missouri has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 7 - 0 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Missouri Notes
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays

Missouri Highlights
Missouri is Undefeated at Home

Missouri offense is good on 3rd downs
Missouri does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#27)

Missouri defense is really good in red zone (#84)
Missouri Defensive Line is very good (#34)
Missouri Front 7 is disruptive (#4)
Missouri has a great TO Margin (#28)

Missouri Deficiencies
Missouri offense is not Explosive (#63)


  
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Ogbonna19033657%23811957.1
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
CJ Ogbonna12234682.826
Jacqez Barksdale8230623.719
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
JJ Jenkins (Tr)36536414.990
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Taji Johnson (Tr)19215211.334

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)16818545
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Shaun Dolac (Tr)16818545
Antonio Colclough (Tr)144341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Shaun Dolac (Tr)16818545

Missouri's OC Kirby Moore
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brady Cook20032063%25251127.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)498260%391334.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Noel (Tr)16381835.064
Marcus Carroll (Tr)140595124.335
Brady Cook8722352.631
Jamal Roberts5321634.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Theo Wease60884414.770
Luther Burden III60666611.144
Marquis Johnson25352114.149
Brett Norfleet2623529.036

View Missouri's Full Roster
Missouri's DC Corey Batoon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Flagg Jr.815110
Triston Newson727241
Marvin Burks Jr.662002
Daylan Carnell515006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnny Walker43131041
Zion Young (Tr)416353
Chris McClellan (Tr)396332
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)123220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daylan Carnell515006
Joseph Charleston442004
Nicholas Deloach Jr.231004