Buffalo at Missouri - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -34.5 (53.5) (-20000) Open: -34.5 | 51.5
Missouri 38 - Buffalo: 0

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MIZ 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Missouri -23.5 (SP+ MIZ -18)
Projected Score: BUFF: 14 - MIZ: 38 (52)
MIZ Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
BUFF Travel: 760 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
MIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Missouri's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Missouri vs Murray State	-50.5	62.5	W 51 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Missouri vs Buffalo	-34.5	53.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Missouri vs Boston College	-14.5	51.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	Missouri vs Vanderbilt	-17.5	52.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Missouri at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/12	Missouri at Massachusetts	-27.0	54.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Missouri vs Auburn	-3.5	49.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Missouri at Alabama	+16.0	51.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Missouri vs Oklahoma	+3.5	41.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Missouri at South Carolina	+10.5	42.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Missouri at Mississippi State	-9.5	58.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Missouri vs Arkansas	-3.5	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/30	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	24	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	23.5	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6
MIZ	#21 (.29)	46% (26)	30.2	45% (48)	3.06 (82)	172	48% (13)	261	4.51 (22)	#47 (.15)	37% (19)	18.9	35% (13)	39% (30)	3.93 (81)	54.2	0.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	12	24	23.2	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	20.6	36.8%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	39%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	22.6	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	39.5	46.1%	4.51	0.7	22	433	172	261	4.5	54%	46%	45%	48%	13%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4
Missouri	13	30:24	21.5	43%	73%	7.2	54.2	0.7	1.5	6.1	2.8	1	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)
MIZ Defense	13	46% (18)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	.08 (33)	2.74 (17)	71% (56)	13% (11)	1.06 (97)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)
MIZ Offense	13	54% (40)	45% (48)	38.2	171.8	4.5	25 (37)	.18 (50)	3.06 (82)	75% (52)	9% (46)	0.97 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)
MIZ Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.23 (46)	1.6 (58)	36% (21)	25% (15)	.18 (12)	6% (64)	1.9 (19)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)
MIZ Offense	13	46% (93)	48% (13)	19	28.9	261.2	9	13.7	23 (51)	7 (21)	.44 (18)	1.7 (42)	31% (46)	36% (21)	.46 (29)	5% (16)	2 (69)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 181.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53 Missouri: 15.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 Missouri: 14.0

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 15.405 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 455.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 38
Buffalo 14

Projected Total Points: 52

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Missouri	38	Buffalo	0	Missouri -34.5	Missouri	53.5	Under
2008	09/20	Missouri	42	Buffalo	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri	2	1	0 Overs
Buffalo	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#106) BUFF at (#26) MIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	MIZ
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#106	#26
SP+SP+	#87	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#24
OffenseOff	#96	#26
DefenseDef	#42	#37
Spec TeamsST	#110	#12
TalentTal	#121	#22
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#23

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Missouri Notes(11/30) 3-1 finish. Even w/ Ark, forced 2 TOs, good 3rd Def
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays
(10/7) Killed by A&M. Cook, RB, Def all awful. Shocking
Missouri Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	MIZ Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#37
SuccessSuc	#116	#19
ExplosiveExp	#121	#102
PPAPPA	#130	#47
PowerPwr	#104	#33
SP+SP+	#84	#20
Pts POPPO	#95	#81
HavocHav	#79	#19

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#116	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#13
Run ExplRExp	#103	#97
PPAExp	#102	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#14
TackleTak	-	#52

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#58
PPAExp	#130	#46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#34
F7 HavocF7	#40	#11
DB HavocDB	#119	#64

Missouri on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	BUFF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#42
SuccessSuc	#26	#33
ExplosiveExp	#63	#99
PPAPPA	#21	#41
PowerPwr	#55	#93
SP+SP+	#23	#93
Pts POPPO	#22	#48
HavocHav	#24	#39

Missouri Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#53	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#48	#25
Run ExplRExp	#84	#131
PPAExp	#50	#76
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#32
TackleTak	-	#18

Missouri Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#18
PPAExp	#18	#29
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#90
F7 HavocF7	#46	#19
DB HavocDB	#16	#95

Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Missouri -34.5 (53.5)
Missouri won vs Buffalo this year (38-0)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Buffalo in 2024 (38-0)

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	200	320	63%	2525	11	2	7.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)	49	82	60%	391	3	3	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel (Tr)	163	818	3	5.0	64
Marcus Carroll (Tr)	140	595	12	4.3	35
Brady Cook	87	223	5	2.6	31
Jamal Roberts	53	216	3	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Theo Wease	60	884	4	14.7	70
Luther Burden III	60	666	6	11.1	44
Marquis Johnson	25	352	1	14.1	49
Brett Norfleet	26	235	2	9.0	36

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Triston Newson	72	7	2	4	1
Marvin Burks Jr.	66	2	0	0	2
Daylan Carnell	51	5	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Walker	43	13	10	4	1
Zion Young (Tr)	41	6	3	5	3
Chris McClellan (Tr)	39	6	3	3	2
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)	12	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Daylan Carnell	51	5	6
Joseph Charleston	44	2	4
Nicholas Deloach Jr.	23	1	4