Kent State at Buffalo - 2024 Matchup Preview
Kent State logo Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Tuesday, November 26th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Buffalo -23.5 (50.5) (-3000)  Open: -21.0 | 49.5
Buffalo 43 - Kent State: 7  (Mid-American)

 
Golden Flashes (0 - 12) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Kenni Burns (1 - 11)
Avg Score : 14 - 44 (9 - 48 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 12 (#134)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
KENT is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -27   (SP+ BUFF -29)

Projected Score: KENT: 14 - BUFF: 41 (54)
BUFF Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
KENT Travel: 183 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kent State at Pittsburgh+23.555.5L 24 - 55ON
Sat 9/7 Kent State vs St. Francis (PA)-17.549.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 9/14 Kent State at Tennessee+49.561.5L 0 - 71ON
Sat 9/21 Kent State at Penn State+49.058.0L 0 - 56UN
Sat 9/28 Kent State vs Eastern Michigan+14.046.0L 33 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kent State vs Ball State+3.058.0L 35 - 37OY
Sat 10/19 Kent State at Bowling Green+24.054.5L 6 - 27UY
Sat 10/26 Kent State at Western Michigan+19.061.0L 21 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Kent State vs Ohio+20.553.5L 0 - 41UN
Wed 11/13 Kent State at Miami (OH)+31.047.5L 7 - 34UY
Tue 11/19 Kent State vs Akron+10.549.0L 17 - 38ON
Tue 11/26 Kent State at Buffalo+23.550.5L 7 - 43UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 6

Predictions for Kent State's Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.545.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Buffalo at Missouri+34.553.5L 0 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.545.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.042.5W 23 - 20OY
Sat 9/28 Buffalo at UConn+6.044.5L 3 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Buffalo vs Toledo+10.544.5W 30 - 15OY
Sat 10/19 Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.049.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Buffalo at Ohio+4.046.5L 16 - 47ON
Sat 11/2 Buffalo at Akron+1.049.0W 41 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Buffalo vs Ball State-3.555.5W 51 - 48ON
Wed 11/20 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.053.5W 37 - 20OY
Tue 11/26 Buffalo vs Kent State-23.550.5W 43 - 7UY
Sat 1/4 Buffalo vs Liberty-4.550.5W 26 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 7
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KENT#131 (.01)30% (134)13.933% (132)2.57 (128)7829% (134)1552.89 (130)#133 (.35)50% (131)44.150% (123)51% (130)4.34 (115)35.71.70.9
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)28.838% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)26.443% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KENT#131 (.01)30% (134)33% (132)2.57 (128)7829% (134)1552.89 (130)#133 (.35)50% (131)50% (123)51% (130)4.34 (115)35.71.70.9
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)38% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)43% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KENT Offense1213.99.330.5%2.891.713233781552.447%51%33%29%28%.01
BUFF Defense1326.422.342.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KENT Defense1244.148.350.1%4.340.9 - - - - - 55%45%50%51%12%.35
BUFF Offense1328.838.239.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kent State1226:5212.919%38%4.835.71.70.94.71.5027.2
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KENT Offense1247% (91)33% (132)32.377.52.43 (134)-.07 (132)2.57 (128)61% (123)19% (134)0.95 (72)
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KENT Defense1255% (113)50% (123) - - - - .3 (132)3.58 (133)81% (115)8% (111)1.13 (122)
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KENT Offense1251% (54)29% (134)11.624.5155.46.313.418 (68)13 (103).14 (109)2.1 (2)41% (134)19% (134).11 (132)8% (128)2.7 (1)
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KENT Defense1245% (25)51% (130) - - - - - - 4 (125).41 (126)1.5 (23)28% (124)38% (127).42 (109)4% (127)1.8 (15)
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)

Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -32.59 #134
Kent State's Offense Rating: 8.84 #130
Kent State's Defense Rating: 22.62 #133
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Kent State's 2024 Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0
Kent State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -33.0 #134
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #133
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #134

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Kent State: -32.59   Buffalo: -5.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kent State: -33.0   Buffalo: -4.0




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Kent State Scoring
Offense: 13.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 44.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 48.3

Kent State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 12
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 41
Kent State 14


Total Points: 54

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Kent State28Buffalo31BuffaloBuffalo -23.5Kent State48.5Over
202411/26Buffalo43Kent State7BuffaloBuffalo -23.5Buffalo50.5Under
202310/21Kent State6Buffalo24BuffaloBuffalo -6.5Buffalo44.0Under
202211/26Buffalo27Kent State30Kent StateBuffalo -4.5Kent State51.0Over
202110/09Kent State48Buffalo38Kent StateKent State -7Kent State66.0Over
202011/28Buffalo70Kent State41BuffaloBuffalo -7.5Buffalo70.0Over
201911/14Kent State30Buffalo27Kent StateBuffalo -6Kent State54.5Over
201811/06Buffalo48Kent State14BuffaloBuffalo -17Buffalo44.5Over
201709/30Kent State13Buffalo27BuffaloBuffalo -7.5Buffalo41.0Under
201610/08Buffalo20Kent State44Kent StateBuffalo -2Kent State42.5Over
201511/05Kent State17Buffalo18BuffaloBuffalo -3Kent State43.5Under
201310/26Kent State21Buffalo41BuffaloBuffalo -2Buffalo0
201209/19Buffalo7Kent State23Kent State
200911/27Kent State6Buffalo9Buffalo
200811/28Buffalo21Kent State24Kent State
200711/24Kent State23Buffalo30Buffalo
200611/04Buffalo41Kent State14Buffalo
200511/12Kent State6Buffalo10Buffalo
200411/06Buffalo7Kent State33Kent State
200311/22Kent State34Buffalo24Kent State
200210/26Buffalo12Kent State16Kent State
200110/20Kent State35Buffalo13Kent State
200011/03Buffalo20Kent State17Buffalo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo1367 Overs
Kent State1064 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 147 - 54 - 23 - 3
Road Teams14 - 95 - 73 - 32 - 4

(#134) Kent State Info
Power Rating: -32.59 #134
Offense Rating: 8.84 #130
Defense Rating: 22.62 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -33.0 #134
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #134
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 30%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.89 PPO
Awful Run Success 33%
Awful Pass Success 29%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.34 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Kent State has lost 11 straight
Kent State has lost 6 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 7 (2 - 5 - 0 vs Spread )

Kent State Notes
(11/27) Avg score 14 -44. Total outscored 529-167
(11/18) Took 1st lead vs M OH, all 34 straight, may not W
(11/7) CFB worst. New Fr QB new suck. Rgame sucks
(11/7) Have never had a lead in any game at 0-9
(10/22) Def stop rate last in CFB (36%) into week 9
(10/13) Pass game expl in shootout L (Ball St). Def bad
(10/4) Sched brutal but bottom 5 in Every Off/Def stat
(9/29) Outscored 234-57 by four P4 opps this year
(9/26) Top 2 QBs out for season, 3rd QB looks hurt
(9/26) Worst team in CFB, top QBs hurt. Burns sucks?

Kent State Highlights
Kent State offense is explosive (#43)
Kent State commits very few Penalties (#85)

Kent State Deficiencies
Kent State has a really bad Offense
Kent State Can Not Run the Ball (#122)
Kent State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Kent State offense is really bad (#134)
Kent State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#99)
Kent State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#126)
Kent State run game is really bad (#135)
Kent State pass game is really bad (#116)
Kent State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Kent State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Kent State does not Sack the QB (#112)
Kent State has a bad defense (#66)
Kent State Does Not Stuff Runs (#39)
Kent State has a bad defensive line (#53)
Kent State has a bad red zone defense (#89)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBUFFKENT
OverallOver#56#101
OffenseOff#77#112
DefenseDef#31#109
Special TeamsST#90#88
PassingPass#85#107
RushingRush#84#101
Run BlockRBLK#52#108
Pass BlockPBLK#85#103
Route RunningWR Rt#60#78
TacklingTkl#16#98
Run DefenseR Def#44#104
Pass Rush DefPRush#77#62
Coverage DefCov#21#108

Rematch from Week 14
Buffalo -23.5 (50.5)
Buffalo won vs Kent State this year (43-7)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Kent State last year (43-7)
Buffalo beat Kent State in 2023 (24-6)
Kent State beat Buffalo in 2022 (30-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: KENT | BUFF
Depth Chart: KENT | BUFF
Rosters: KENT | BUFF
(#106) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Buffalo has won 3 straight
Buffalo has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all

Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)

Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
Kent State's OC Mark Carney
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tommy Ulatowski8117546%13421587.7
Devin Kargman458255%432325.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ky Thomas13555014.138
Curtis Douglas4814503.019
Jahzae Kimbrough2711404.218
Ayden Harris2911013.813
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chrishon Mccray40705917.668
Luke Floriea44688715.680
Jay Jay Etheridge1413719.837
Dashawn Martin8108013.527

View Kent State's Full Roster
Kent State's DC Kody Morgan
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Baka903005
Mason Woods (Tr)684001
Tevin Tucker652002
Rocco Nicholl611032
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Stephen Daley519463
Matt Harmon567251
Kaden Beatty193101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Baka903005
Naim Muhammad242113
Stephen Daley519463

Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Ogbonna19033657%23811957.1
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
CJ Ogbonna12234682.826
Jacqez Barksdale8230623.719
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
JJ Jenkins (Tr)36536414.990
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Taji Johnson (Tr)19215211.334

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)16818545
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Shaun Dolac (Tr)16818545
Antonio Colclough (Tr)144341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Shaun Dolac (Tr)16818545