Buffalo at Ohio - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio -4.0 (46.5) (-235) Open: -6.0 | 46.0
Ohio 47 - Buffalo: 16 (Mid-American)

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Ohio -8 (SP+ OHIO -6)
Projected Score: BUFF: 20 - OHIO: 28 (48)
OHIO Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 307 miles

Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Ohio's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio at Syracuse	+17.5	47.5	L 22 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ohio vs South Alabama	+1.5	55.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ohio vs Morgan State	-24.5	45.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/21	Ohio at Kentucky	+19.0	42.0	L 6 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio vs Akron	-8.5	46.0	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Ohio at Central Michigan	-3.0	50.5	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ohio at Miami (OH)	+3.5	43.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/26	Ohio vs Buffalo	-4.0	46.5	W 47 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Ohio at Kent State	-20.5	53.5	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/13	Ohio vs Eastern Michigan	-10.5	51.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Ohio at Toledo	+1.5	47.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Ohio vs Ball State	-17.5	51.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	43.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Ohio vs Jacksonville State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	24	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	23.5	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6
OHIO	#76 (.18)	45% (33)	27.8	44% (61)	2.99 (90)	144	48% (17)	204	3.61 (92)	#3 (.02)	35% (8)	21.9	35% (9)	36% (12)	2.45 (2)	51.8	1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OHIO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	12	24	23.2	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03
OHIO Defense	13	21.9	20	35%	2.45	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	35%	36%	21%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	22.6	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14
OHIO Offense	13	27.8	36.3	45.2%	3.61	1	21	348	144	204	3.9	52%	47%	44%	48%	15%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4
Ohio	13	33:23	20.8	46%	50%	5.6	51.8	1	1.8	7.4	2.8	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)
OHIO Defense	13	44% (10)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (3)	2.54 (8)	70% (47)	15% (3)	1.07 (101)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)
OHIO Offense	13	52% (46)	44% (61)	37.3	144.4	3.9	18 (77)	.1 (95)	2.99 (90)	73% (75)	9% (39)	0.81 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)
OHIO Defense	13	54% (123)	36% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.14 (14)	1.5 (30)	36% (15)	23% (5)	.19 (15)	5% (94)	1.9 (27)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)
OHIO Offense	13	47% (91)	48% (17)	18.4	29.5	203.6	6.9	11.1	16 (92)	9 (40)	.31 (57)	1.4 (123)	30% (31)	35% (30)	.32 (72)	6% (84)	1.7 (131)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 181.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53 Ohio: -0.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 Ohio: 2.3

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -0.48 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 174.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 28
Buffalo 20

Projected Total Points: 48

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Buffalo	26	Ohio	31	Ohio -7.0	Buffalo	44.5	Over
2024	10/26	Ohio	47	Buffalo	16	Ohio -4.0	Ohio	46.5	Over
2023	11/07	Buffalo	10	Ohio	20	Ohio -9.5	Ohio	45.5	Under
2022	11/01	Ohio	45	Buffalo	24	Buffalo -2.5	Ohio	61.0	Over
2021	10/16	Buffalo	27	Ohio	26	Buffalo -7.5	Ohio	54.5	Under
2019	10/05	Buffalo	20	Ohio	21	Ohio -3	Buffalo	53.0	Under
2018	11/14	Ohio	52	Buffalo	17	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	66.0	Over
2017	11/24	Buffalo	31	Ohio	24	Ohio -7	Buffalo	56.0	Under
2016	11/03	Ohio	34	Buffalo	10	Ohio -19	Ohio	51.5	Under
2015	10/24	Buffalo	41	Ohio	17	Ohio -2	Buffalo	53.0	Over
2014	11/05	Ohio	37	Buffalo	14	Ohio -2	Ohio	0
2013	11/05	Buffalo	30	Ohio	3	Buffalo -2.5	Buffalo	0
2012	10/06	Ohio	38	Buffalo	31
2011	10/08	Buffalo	38	Ohio	37
2010	11/04	Ohio	34	Buffalo	17
2009	11/10	Buffalo	24	Ohio	27
2008	10/28	Ohio	19	Buffalo	32
2007	10/06	Buffalo	31	Ohio	10
2006	10/21	Ohio	42	Buffalo	7
2005	10/29	Buffalo	20	Ohio	34
2004	09/25	Ohio	34	Buffalo	0
2003	10/25	Buffalo	26	Ohio	17
2002	09/28	Ohio	34	Buffalo	32
2001	11/03	Buffalo	44	Ohio	0
2000	10/06	Ohio	42	Buffalo	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	16	7	5 Overs
Buffalo	9	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	19 - 6	10 - 2	5 - 1	5 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 19	2 - 10	1 - 5	1 - 5

(#106) BUFF at (#93) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#106	#93
SP+SP+	#87	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#64
OffenseOff	#96	#76
DefenseDef	#42	#59
Spec TeamsST	#110	#81
TalentTal	#121	#122
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Ohio Notes(12/18) Promoted OC Brian Smith to HC
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG
(9/1) Game vs Cuse, 255 yds rush (6.5 ypc), QB can't pass
Ohio Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#59
SuccessSuc	#116	#8
ExplosiveExp	#121	#77
PPAPPA	#130	#3
PowerPwr	#104	#63
SP+SP+	#84	#47
Pts POPPO	#95	#2
HavocHav	#79	#9

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#116	#79
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#9
Run ExplRExp	#103	#101
PPAExp	#102	#3
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#8
TackleTak	-	#123

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#30
PPAExp	#130	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#26
F7 HavocF7	#40	#3
DB HavocDB	#119	#94

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#42
SuccessSuc	#33	#33
ExplosiveExp	#129	#99
PPAPPA	#76	#41
PowerPwr	#68	#93
SP+SP+	#67	#93
Pts POPPO	#92	#48
HavocHav	#53	#39

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#65	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#61	#25
Run ExplRExp	#131	#131
PPAExp	#95	#76
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#32
TackleTak	-	#18

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#68	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#18
PPAExp	#57	#29
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#90
F7 HavocF7	#39	#19
DB HavocDB	#84	#95

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Ohio -4.0 (46.5)
Ohio won vs Buffalo this year (47-16)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Buffalo last year (31-26)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2024 (47-16)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2023 (20-10)

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5

OHIO's OC Brian Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	195	295	66%	2423	13	11	8.2
Nick Poulos	22	49	45%	271	2	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Parker Navarro	160	1047	18	6.5	55
Rickey Hunt	76	393	2	5.2	59
Nick Poulos	28	149	1	5.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)	78	1235	8	15.8	75
Chase Hendricks	40	471	1	11.8	56
Rodney Harris II	23	299	0	13.0	52
Mason Williams	19	211	2	11.1	21

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Leake (Tr)	94	5	1	1	3
Dustin Johnson (Tr)	77	2	0	0	4
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradley Weaver	44	16	9	10	0
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Kadin Schmitz	32	4	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Roman Parodie	51	0	10
DJ Walker	53	7	7
Tank Pearson	50	2	6