Buffalo Bulls vs Liberty Flames
Saturday, January 4th 2025 (11:00 AM EST)
Buffalo -4.5 (50.5) (-192) Open: -2.5 | 51.5
Buffalo 26 - Liberty: 7 (Bahamas Bowl Presented by Atlantis Resorts)
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Liberty -8.5 (SP+ LIB -4)
Projected Score: BUFF: 22 - LIB: 31 (53)
BUFF Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 391 miles
Our Line: Liberty -8.5 (SP+ LIB -4)
Projected Score: BUFF: 22 - LIB: 31 (53)
BUFF Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 391 miles
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
| Buffalo's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 30 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5 | 53.5 | L 0 - 38 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 34 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0 | 42.5 | W 23 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0 | 44.5 | L 3 - 47 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5 | 44.5 | W 30 - 15 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0 | 49.5 | L 41 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0 | 46.5 | L 16 - 47 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0 | 49.0 | W 41 - 30 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5 | 55.5 | W 51 - 48 | O | N | |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0 | 53.5 | W 37 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5 | 50.5 | W 43 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5 | 50.5 | W 26 - 7 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
| Liberty's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Liberty vs Campbell | -41.5 | 58.5 | W 41 - 24 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Liberty at New Mexico State | -22.5 | 54.5 | W 30 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Liberty vs UTEP | -23.5 | 57.5 | W 28 - 10 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Liberty vs East Carolina | -7.5 | 55.0 | W 35 - 24 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 10/8 | Liberty vs Florida International | -15.5 | 56.0 | W 31 - 24 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Liberty at Kennesaw State | -27.0 | 48.0 | L 24 - 27 | O | N | |
| Wed 10/30 | Liberty vs Jacksonville State | -2.5 | 64.0 | L 21 - 31 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/9 | Liberty at Middle Tennessee | -12.5 | 54.5 | W 37 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/16 | Liberty at Massachusetts | -17.0 | 53.0 | W 35 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | Liberty vs Western Kentucky | -1.0 | 56.5 | W 38 - 21 | O | Y | |
| Fri 11/29 | Liberty at Sam Houston | -2.5 | 47.5 | L 18 - 20 | U | N | |
| Sat 1/4 | Liberty vs Buffalo | +4.5 | 50.5 | L 7 - 26 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 28.8 | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 26.4 | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
| LIB | #24 (.26) | 50% (7) | 28.8 | 54% (2) | 3.56 (7) | 238 | 43% (60) | 161 | 4.21 (43) | #24 (.1) | 39% (39) | 23.5 | 39% (30) | 40% (66) | 3.68 (58) | 64.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 | ||
| LIB | #24 (.26) | 50% (7) | 54% (2) | 3.56 (7) | 238 | 43% (60) | 161 | 4.21 (43) | #24 (.1) | 39% (39) | 39% (30) | 40% (66) | 3.68 (58) | 64.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 28.8 | 20 | 39.6% | 4.22 | 1 | 17 | 329 | 153 | 176 | 4.2 | 55% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 17% | .17 |
| LIB Defense | 12 | 23.5 | 22.3 | 39.4% | 3.68 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 55% | 45% | 39% | 40% | 16% | .1 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 26.4 | 33.7 | 42.8% | 3.84 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 46% | 53% | 43% | 43% | 18% | .17 |
| LIB Offense | 12 | 28.8 | 32.3 | 49.9% | 4.21 | 1.3 | 22 | 400 | 238 | 161 | 5.7 | 63% | 36% | 54% | 43% | 14% | .26 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 13 | 26:20 | 17.2 | 34% | 52% | 4 | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 31.2 |
| Liberty | 12 | 28:42 | 22.1 | 45% | 50% | 6.7 | 64.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 1.6 | 0 | 28.5 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 55% (36) | 38% (115) | 36.2 | 153.3 | 4.2 | 23 (52) | .08 (96) | 2.7 (117) | 61% (122) | 10% (84) | 1.11 (17) |
| LIB Defense | 12 | 55% (115) | 39% (30) | - | - | - | - | .02 (20) | 2.68 (21) | 73% (62) | 10% (59) | 0.99 (68) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 46% (21) | 43% (71) | - | - | - | - | .08 (47) | 3.01 (68) | 63% (16) | 12% (35) | 0.94 (45) |
| LIB Offense | 12 | 63% (5) | 54% (2) | 41.8 | 238.3 | 5.7 | 28 (25) | .25 (16) | 3.56 (7) | 76% (47) | 9% (43) | 0.91 (94) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 45% (99) | 42% (70) | 14.2 | 25.2 | 175.8 | 7 | 12.4 | 19 (65) | 6 (10) | .29 (47) | 1.5 (80) | 33% (97) | 31% (75) | .34 (66) | 6% (89) | 1.9 (106) |
| LIB Defense | 12 | 45% (19) | 40% (66) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (93) | .21 (51) | 1.6 (77) | 32% (73) | 31% (81) | .18 (17) | 6% (82) | 1.8 (9) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 53% (109) | 43% (97) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 (39) | .28 (91) | 1.7 (97) | 32% (58) | 29% (40) | .18 (18) | 7% (38) | 2.2 (100) |
| LIB Offense | 12 | 36% (130) | 43% (60) | 12.6 | 22.3 | 161.2 | 7.2 | 12.8 | 15 (98) | 6 (10) | .27 (56) | 1.5 (104) | 24% (2) | 36% (23) | .43 (26) | 5% (36) | 1.9 (107) |
Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53 Liberty: 0.39
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 Liberty: 0.2
Buffalo: -12.53 Liberty: 0.39
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 Liberty: 0.2
Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.39 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.39 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 31
Buffalo 22
Total Points: 53
Liberty 31
Buffalo 22
Total Points: 53
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 01/04 | Liberty | 7 | Buffalo | 26 | Buffalo | Buffalo -4.5 | Buffalo | 50.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 09/16 | Buffalo | 27 | Liberty | 55 | Liberty | Liberty -2.5 | Liberty | 54.0 | Over |
| 2019 | 09/14 | Liberty | 35 | Buffalo | 17 | Liberty | Buffalo -6 | Liberty | 55.0 | Under |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 2 | 2 | 1 Overs |
| Buffalo | 1 | 1 | 2 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | 0 - 0 | 1 - 2 |
| Road Teams | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 0 - 0 |
| Buffalo Recent Bowl History | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Bowl | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result |
| 2024 | Bahamas Bowl | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5 | 50.5 | W 26 - 7 |
| 2022 | Camellia Bowl | Buffalo vs Georgia Southern | +6.0 | 67.0 | W 23 - 21 |
| 2020 | Camellia Bowl | Buffalo vs Marshall | -5.5 | 53.5 | W 17 - 10 |
| 2019 | Bahamas Bowl | Buffalo vs Charlotte | -7.0 | 52.0 | W 31 - 9 |
| 2018 | General Bowl | Buffalo vs Troy | -2.0 | 50.5 | L 32 - 42 |
| Liberty Recent Bowl History | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Bowl | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result |
| 2024 | Bahamas Bowl | Liberty vs Buffalo | +4.5 | 50.5 | L 7 - 26 |
| 2023 | Fiesta Bowl | Liberty vs Oregon | +18.5 | 71.5 | L 6 - 45 |
| 2022 | Raton Bowl | Liberty vs Toledo | +4.0 | 51.5 | L 19 - 21 |
| 2021 | Lendingtree Bowl | Liberty vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5 | 58.5 | W 56 - 20 |
| 2020 | Cure Bowl | Liberty vs Coastal Carolina | +6.5 | 60.0 | W 37 - 34 |
| 2019 | Cure Bowl | Liberty vs Georgia Southern | +5.0 | 59.0 | W 23 - 16 |
(#106) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 0)
Buffalo has played in 7 Bowls since 2000 (4 - 3)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo has a really bad Offense Away from Home
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Buffalo Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 0)
Buffalo has played in 7 Bowls since 2000 (4 - 3)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo has a really bad Offense Away from Home
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Buffalo Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | LIB | BUFF |
| OverallOver | #27 | #56 |
| OffenseOff | #20 | #77 |
| DefenseDef | #55 | #31 |
| Special TeamsST | #81 | #90 |
| PassingPass | #31 | #85 |
| RushingRush | #26 | #84 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #4 | #52 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #86 | #85 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #77 | #60 |
| TacklingTkl | #62 | #16 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #58 | #44 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #59 | #77 |
| Coverage DefCov | #50 | #21 |
Rematch from Week 1
Buffalo 4.5 (50.5)
Buffalo won at Liberty this year (26-7)
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Liberty last year (26-7)
Liberty beat Buffalo in 2023 (55-27)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Thomas Robinson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | LIB
Depth Chart: BUFF | LIB
Rosters: BUFF | LIB
(#60) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 0.39 #60
Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.21 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Liberty has played in 6 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 3)
Liberty has played in 6 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 3)
Liberty Notes
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
Liberty Highlights
Liberty has Really Good Running Game (#53)
Liberty offense is efficent (#55)
Liberty has a top Offensive Line (#49)
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#75)
Liberty has a good run defense (#78)
Liberty Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#71)
Liberty Defensive Line is very good (#98)
Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Liberty offense is not Explosive (#38)
Power Rating: 0.39 #60
Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.21 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Liberty has played in 6 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 3)
Liberty has played in 6 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 3)
Liberty Notes
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
Liberty Highlights
Liberty has Really Good Running Game (#53)
Liberty offense is efficent (#55)
Liberty has a top Offensive Line (#49)
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#75)
Liberty has a good run defense (#78)
Liberty Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#71)
Liberty Defensive Line is very good (#98)
Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Liberty offense is not Explosive (#38)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Ogbonna | 190 | 336 | 57% | 2381 | 19 | 5 | 7.1 |
| Gunnar Gray | 4 | 11 | 36% | 41 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Jay Henderson | 204 | 1078 | 9 | 5.3 | 68 |
| CJ Ogbonna | 122 | 346 | 8 | 2.8 | 26 |
| Jacqez Barksdale | 82 | 306 | 2 | 3.7 | 19 |
| Messiah Burch | 29 | 153 | 2 | 5.3 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Snow | 55 | 651 | 6 | 11.8 | 46 |
| JJ Jenkins (Tr) | 36 | 536 | 4 | 14.9 | 90 |
| Al-Jay Henderson | 19 | 238 | 1 | 12.5 | 75 |
| Taji Johnson (Tr) | 19 | 215 | 2 | 11.3 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Khalil Murdock | 156 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Stewart (Tr) | 40 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Antonio Colclough (Tr) | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Cooper | 55 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaidon Salter | 147 | 261 | 56% | 1886 | 15 | 6 | 7.2 |
| Ryan Burger (Tr) | 8 | 19 | 42% | 88 | 0 | 0 | 4.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Cooley | 205 | 1254 | 13 | 6.1 | 44 |
| Billy Lucas | 123 | 720 | 5 | 5.9 | 55 |
| Kaidon Salter | 114 | 587 | 7 | 5.1 | 41 |
| Vaughn Blue | 35 | 207 | 1 | 5.9 | 45 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treon Sibley | 28 | 510 | 2 | 18.2 | 70 |
| Elijah Canion (Tr) | 25 | 354 | 3 | 14.2 | 50 |
| Reese Smith | 18 | 277 | 4 | 15.4 | 44 |
| Tyson Mobley (Tr) | 29 | 276 | 1 | 9.5 | 25 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Carter | 88 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| T.J. Bush | 58 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| Jerome Jolly Jr. | 55 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CJ Bazile Jr. | 54 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Bush | 58 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| CJ Bazile Jr. | 54 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Quinton Reese | 40 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Joseph Carter | 88 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Bush | 58 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| Joseph Carter | 88 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| A'Khori Jones | 53 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 |