Buffalo at Northern Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview

Buffalo Bulls at Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Northern Illinois -13.0 (42.5) (-550) Open: -15.5 | 45.0
Buffalo 23 - Northern Illinois: 20 (Mid-American)

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPH
NIU coming off BYE
BUFF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northern Illinois -7.5 (SP+ NIU -1)
Projected Score: BUFF: 19 - NIU: 27 (46)
NIU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
BUFF Travel: 515 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)	28.8	38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)	26.4	43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)	24.5	44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)	18.5	41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	13	28.8	20	39.6%	4.22	1	17	329	153	176	4.2	55%	45%	38%	42%	17%	.17
NIU Defense	13	18.5	17.2	37.7%	3.08	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	35%	17%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	13	26.4	33.7	42.8%	3.84	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	43%	18%	.17
NIU Offense	13	24.5	27.8	42.1%	3.39	1.2	21	383	204	179	4.8	59%	41%	44%	40%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	13	26:20	17.2	34%	52%	4	39.3	1	1.5	6.3	2.2	2	31.2
Northern Illinois	13	33:20	21.5	42%	45%	4.2	42.8	1.2	1.1	5.4	2.5	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	13	55% (36)	38% (115)	36.2	153.3	4.2	23 (52)	.08 (96)	2.7 (117)	61% (122)	10% (84)	1.11 (17)
NIU Defense	13	49% (44)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.08 (45)	3.06 (79)	74% (73)	11% (53)	0.9 (33)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.08 (47)	3.01 (68)	63% (16)	12% (35)	0.94 (45)
NIU Offense	13	59% (11)	44% (72)	42.8	204.2	4.8	22 (55)	.14 (66)	3.25 (33)	72% (83)	9% (60)	1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	13	45% (99)	42% (70)	14.2	25.2	175.8	7	12.4	19 (65)	6 (10)	.29 (47)	1.5 (80)	33% (97)	31% (75)	.34 (66)	6% (89)	1.9 (106)
NIU Defense	13	51% (93)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.04 (4)	1.5 (55)	36% (15)	25% (10)	.18 (16)	7% (37)	2 (67)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	13	53% (109)	43% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.28 (91)	1.7 (97)	32% (58)	29% (40)	.18 (18)	7% (38)	2.2 (100)
NIU Offense	13	41% (124)	40% (86)	16.5	28.5	179.1	6.3	10.8	16 (87)	8 (40)	.23 (84)	1.6 (58)	31% (68)	30% (89)	.17 (117)	5% (39)	1.9 (116)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53 Northern Illinois: -0.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 Northern Illinois: -3.5

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -0.635 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 27
Buffalo 19

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 35
Buffalo 14

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 28
Buffalo 21

Total Points: 49

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Northern Illinois	20	Buffalo	23	Northern Illinois -13.0	Buffalo	42.5	Over
2021	11/17	Buffalo	27	Northern Illinois	33	Northern Illinois -2	Northern Illinois	59.5	Over
2020	11/04	Northern Illinois	30	Buffalo	49	Buffalo -14	Buffalo	53.0	Over
2018	11/30	Buffalo	29	Northern Illinois	30	Buffalo -3	Northern Illinois	51.0	Over
2017	10/14	Buffalo	13	Northern Illinois	14	Northern Illinois -8	Buffalo	50.0	Under
2016	10/22	Northern Illinois	44	Buffalo	7	Northern Illinois -20	Northern Illinois	61.0	Under
2015	11/11	Buffalo	30	Northern Illinois	41	Northern Illinois -5	Northern Illinois	55.5	Over
2012	10/13	Northern Illinois	45	Buffalo	3
2011	10/22	Buffalo	30	Northern Illinois	31
2010	10/16	Northern Illinois	45	Buffalo	14
2006	09/16	Northern Illinois	31	Buffalo	13
2003	11/08	Buffalo	9	Northern Illinois	40
2000	10/27	Northern Illinois	73	Buffalo	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	11	4	5 Overs
Buffalo	2	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 8	2 - 5	1 - 2	1 - 3
Road Teams	8 - 5	5 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 1

(#106) BUFF at (#73) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#106	#73
SP+SP+	#87	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#51
OffenseOff	#96	#80
DefenseDef	#42	#24
Spec TeamsST	#110	#38
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#24
SuccessSuc	#104	#19
ExplosiveExp	#41	#37
PPAPPA	#77	#11
PowerPwr	#104	#11
SP+SP+	#84	#32
Pts POPPO	#41	#12
HavocHav	#91	#48

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#116	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#52
Run ExplRExp	#17	#33
PPAExp	#96	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#117	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#96	#104
TackleTak	-	#3

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#55
PPAExp	#47	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#73
F7 HavocF7	#84	#53
DB HavocDB	#89	#37

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BUFF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#42
SuccessSuc	#79	#82
ExplosiveExp	#96	#97
PPAPPA	#86	#72
PowerPwr	#97	#93
SP+SP+	#115	#93
Pts POPPO	#113	#74
HavocHav	#44	#33

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#90	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#71
Run ExplRExp	#54	#45
PPAExp	#66	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#64
TackleTak	-	#18

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#97
PPAExp	#84	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#90
F7 HavocF7	#60	#35
DB HavocDB	#39	#38

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 87° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Northern Illinois -13.0 (42.5)
Buffalo won at Northern Illinois this year (23-20)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Northern Illinois last year (23-20)

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4