Massachusetts at Buffalo - 2024 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (1:00 PM EDT)
Buffalo -3.5 (45.5) (-165) Open: -5.5 | 45.5
Buffalo 34 - Massachusetts: 3

Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Don Brown (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Buffalo -13.5 (SP+ BUFF -18)
Projected Score: UMASS: 17 - BUFF: 30 (47)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UMASS Travel: 320 miles

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	-2.5	49.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/7	Massachusetts at Toledo	+17.5	50.5	L 23 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Massachusetts at Buffalo	+3.5	45.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/21	Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut	-19.5	52.0	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Massachusetts at Miami (OH)	+15.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Massachusetts at Northern Illinois	+14.0	41.0	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Massachusetts vs Missouri	+27.0	54.0	L 3 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Massachusetts vs Wagner	-23.0	48.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Massachusetts at Mississippi State	+19.5	59.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+17.0	53.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Massachusetts at Georgia	+42.5	55.5	L 21 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Massachusetts vs UConn	+9.5	49.5	L 42 - 47	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#72 (.18)	42% (68)	11.1	45% (47)	3.35 (21)	142	40% (86)	214	3.73 (82)	#124 (.31)	49% (132)	38.6	53% (131)	43% (92)	4.31 (114)	70.9	1.4	1.2
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	24	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	23.5	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	9.3	42%	3.73	1.4	18	356	142	214	4.4	51%	48%	45%	40%	21%	.18
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	24.1	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	42.5	48.5%	4.31	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	53%	43%	15%	.31
BUFF Offense	12	24	24.6	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	29:45	17.8	36%	23%	8	70.9	1.4	1.2	4.5	1.5	2	26.5
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	51% (59)	45% (47)	32.5	142.2	4.4	19 (69)	.25 (18)	3.35 (21)	62% (125)	14% (127)	1.14 (11)
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	58% (130)	53% (131)	-	-	-	-	.34 (131)	3.83 (133)	85% (123)	9% (89)	1 (69)
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	48% (76)	40% (86)	17.7	29	214.1	7.4	12.1	14 (106)	11 (68)	.18 (99)	1.5 (85)	32% (62)	33% (50)	.43 (35)	7% (109)	2.2 (36)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	42% (4)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (94)	1.8 (122)	29% (121)	37% (125)	.47 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (30)
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 245.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -16.22 Buffalo: -5.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9 Buffalo: -4.0

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 181.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 30
Massachusetts 17

Projected Total Points: 47

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Massachusetts	21	Buffalo	28	Buffalo -16.5	Massachusetts	47.5	Over
2024	09/14	Buffalo	34	Massachusetts	3	Buffalo -3.5	Buffalo	45.5	Under
2022	10/15	Massachusetts	7	Buffalo	34	Buffalo -17	Buffalo	47.5	Under
2015	11/27	Buffalo	26	Massachusetts	31	Buffalo -6	Massachusetts	55.0	Over
2014	11/28	Massachusetts	21	Buffalo	41	Buffalo -1	Buffalo	0
2013	10/19	Buffalo	32	Massachusetts	3	Buffalo -20.5	Buffalo	0
2012	11/17	Massachusetts	19	Buffalo	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	6	4	2 Overs
Massachusetts	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 5	3 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 2	3 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 2

(#115) UMASS at (#106) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	BUFF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#115	#106
SP+SP+	#129	#87
Perf GradeGrade	#128	#79
OffenseOff	#114	#96
DefenseDef	#117	#42
Spec TeamsST	#126	#110
TalentTal	#98	#121
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Massachusetts Notes(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	BUFF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#42
SuccessSuc	#68	#33
ExplosiveExp	#48	#99
PPAPPA	#72	#41
PowerPwr	#69	#93
SP+SP+	#110	#93
Pts POPPO	#82	#48
HavocHav	#129	#39

Massachusetts Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#119	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#25
Run ExplRExp	#11	#131
PPAExp	#18	#76
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#29	#32
TackleTak	-	#18

Massachusetts Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#85	#18
PPAExp	#99	#29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#57	#90
F7 HavocF7	#127	#19
DB HavocDB	#109	#95

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#117
SuccessSuc	#116	#132
ExplosiveExp	#121	#66
PPAPPA	#130	#124
PowerPwr	#104	#122
SP+SP+	#84	#129
Pts POPPO	#95	#114
HavocHav	#79	#97

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#116	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#131
Run ExplRExp	#103	#69
PPAExp	#102	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#133
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#133
TackleTak	-	#14

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#104
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#122
PPAExp	#130	#94
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#86
F7 HavocF7	#40	#89
DB HavocDB	#119	#90

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 83° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Buffalo -3.5 (45.5)
Buffalo won vs Massachusetts this year (34-3)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (28-21)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (34-3)

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8
AJ Hairston	40	73	55%	480	5	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen John	111	583	5	5.3	68
C.J. Hester (Tr)	119	529	4	4.4	24
Taisun Phommachanh	107	317	3	3.0	33
Brandon Campbell (Tr)	61	233	3	3.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)	51	870	6	17.1	75
Ty Harding	18	303	5	16.8	58
Jacquon Gibson	23	270	1	11.7	39
Sterling Galban (Tr)	25	210	0	8.4	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Gerrell Johnson	74	3	1	2	2
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	0	0	3
Te'Rai Powell	52	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Louce Julien	43	7	4	1	1
Kofi Asare	30	6	3	1	1
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Christian Lebrun	22	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lake Ellis (Tr)	29	3	5
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)	27	2	3

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5