Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (1:00 PM EDT)
Buffalo -3.5 (45.5) (-165) Open: -5.5 | 45.5
Buffalo 34 - Massachusetts: 3
Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UMASS 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Buffalo -13.5 (SP+ BUFF -18)
Projected Score: UMASS: 19 - BUFF: 33 (52)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UMASS Travel: 320 miles
Our Line: Buffalo -13.5 (SP+ BUFF -18)
Projected Score: UMASS: 19 - BUFF: 33 (52)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UMASS Travel: 320 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
| Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5 | 49.0 | L 14 - 28 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Massachusetts at Toledo | +17.5 | 50.5 | L 23 - 38 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Massachusetts at Buffalo | +3.5 | 45.5 | L 3 - 34 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut | -19.5 | 52.0 | W 35 - 31 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | Massachusetts at Miami (OH) | +15.5 | 44.5 | L 20 - 23 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/5 | Massachusetts at Northern Illinois | +14.0 | 41.0 | L 20 - 34 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Massachusetts vs Missouri | +27.0 | 54.0 | L 3 - 45 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Massachusetts vs Wagner | -23.0 | 48.0 | W 35 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | Massachusetts at Mississippi State | +19.5 | 59.5 | L 20 - 45 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Massachusetts vs Liberty | +17.0 | 53.0 | L 34 - 35 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Massachusetts at Georgia | +42.5 | 55.5 | L 21 - 59 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +9.5 | 49.5 | L 42 - 47 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
| Buffalo's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 30 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5 | 53.5 | L 0 - 38 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 34 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0 | 42.5 | W 23 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0 | 44.5 | L 3 - 47 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5 | 44.5 | W 30 - 15 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0 | 49.5 | L 41 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0 | 46.5 | L 16 - 47 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0 | 49.0 | W 41 - 30 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5 | 55.5 | W 51 - 48 | O | N | |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0 | 53.5 | W 37 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5 | 50.5 | W 43 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5 | 50.5 | W 26 - 7 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS | #69 (.19) | 41% (94) | 22.5 | 43% (78) | 3.1 (50) | 164 | 38% (110) | 182 | 3.73 (89) | #114 (.26) | 46% (116) | 35.5 | 51% (128) | 40% (71) | 4.66 (129) | 63.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 28.8 | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 26.4 | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS | #69 (.19) | 41% (94) | 43% (78) | 3.1 (50) | 164 | 38% (110) | 182 | 3.73 (89) | #114 (.26) | 46% (116) | 51% (128) | 40% (71) | 4.66 (129) | 63.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS Offense | 12 | 22.5 | 17.8 | 40.8% | 3.73 | 0.8 | 20 | 346 | 164 | 182 | 4.1 | 56% | 44% | 43% | 38% | 17% | .19 |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 26.4 | 22.3 | 42.8% | 3.84 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 46% | 53% | 43% | 43% | 18% | .17 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS Defense | 12 | 35.5 | 38.8 | 46.3% | 4.66 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | - | 60% | 39% | 51% | 40% | 14% | .26 |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 28.8 | 38.2 | 39.6% | 4.22 | 1 | 17 | 329 | 153 | 176 | 4.2 | 55% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 17% | .17 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 12 | 32:19 | 19.7 | 38% | 58% | 7.3 | 63.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 25.4 |
| Buffalo | 13 | 26:20 | 17.2 | 34% | 52% | 4 | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 31.2 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS Offense | 12 | 56% (27) | 43% (78) | 40.2 | 164 | 4.1 | 18 (78) | .16 (53) | 3.1 (50) | 74% (62) | 11% (95) | 0.96 (68) |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 46% (21) | 43% (71) | - | - | - | - | .08 (47) | 3.01 (68) | 63% (16) | 12% (35) | 0.94 (45) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS Defense | 12 | 60% (133) | 51% (128) | - | - | - | - | .25 (125) | 3.51 (131) | 87% (131) | 8% (113) | 0.95 (52) |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 55% (36) | 38% (115) | 36.2 | 153.3 | 4.2 | 23 (52) | .08 (96) | 2.7 (117) | 61% (122) | 10% (84) | 1.11 (17) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS Offense | 12 | 44% (109) | 38% (110) | 15.6 | 27.3 | 181.8 | 6.7 | 11.7 | 14 (108) | 6 (10) | .23 (81) | 1.7 (22) | 33% (87) | 32% (57) | .34 (69) | 6% (80) | 2 (98) |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 53% (109) | 43% (97) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 (39) | .28 (91) | 1.7 (97) | 32% (58) | 29% (40) | .18 (18) | 7% (38) | 2.2 (100) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMASS Defense | 12 | 39% (2) | 40% (71) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6 (109) | .29 (100) | 1.7 (112) | 28% (118) | 28% (29) | .27 (51) | 6% (72) | 2.1 (89) |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 45% (99) | 42% (70) | 14.2 | 25.2 | 175.8 | 7 | 12.4 | 19 (65) | 6 (10) | .29 (47) | 1.5 (80) | 33% (97) | 31% (75) | .34 (66) | 6% (89) | 1.9 (106) |
Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -16.22 Buffalo: -5.765
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9 Buffalo: -4.0
Massachusetts: -16.22 Buffalo: -5.765
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9 Buffalo: -4.0
Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.8
Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.8
Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 33
Massachusetts 19
Total Points: 52
Buffalo 33
Massachusetts 19
Total Points: 52
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 09/14 | Buffalo | 34 | Massachusetts | 3 | Buffalo | Buffalo -3.5 | Buffalo | 45.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 10/15 | Massachusetts | 7 | Buffalo | 34 | Buffalo | Buffalo -17 | Buffalo | 47.5 | Under |
| 2015 | 11/27 | Buffalo | 26 | Massachusetts | 31 | Massachusetts | Buffalo -6 | Massachusetts | 55.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/28 | Massachusetts | 21 | Buffalo | 41 | Buffalo | Buffalo -1 | Buffalo | 0 | |
| 2013 | 10/19 | Buffalo | 32 | Massachusetts | 3 | Buffalo | Buffalo -20.5 | Buffalo | 0 | |
| 2012 | 11/17 | Massachusetts | 19 | Buffalo | 29 | Buffalo |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 5 | 4 | 1 Overs |
| Massachusetts | 1 | 1 | 2 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 2 - 4 | 2 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 0 - 2 |
| Road Teams | 4 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 |
(#115) Massachusetts Info
Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Massachusetts has lost 2 straight
Massachusetts has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (3 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )
Massachusetts Notes
(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Highlights
Massachusetts has a great TO Margin (#54)
Massachusetts Deficiencies
Massachusetts Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Massachusetts pass game is really bad (#50)
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Massachusetts does not Sack the QB (#97)
Massachusetts has a bad defense (#87)
Massachusetts Does Not Stuff Runs (#133)
Massachusetts has a bad defensive line (#126)
Massachusetts has a bad red zone defense (#98)
Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Massachusetts has lost 2 straight
Massachusetts has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (3 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )
Massachusetts Notes
(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Highlights
Massachusetts has a great TO Margin (#54)
Massachusetts Deficiencies
Massachusetts Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Massachusetts pass game is really bad (#50)
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Massachusetts does not Sack the QB (#97)
Massachusetts has a bad defense (#87)
Massachusetts Does Not Stuff Runs (#133)
Massachusetts has a bad defensive line (#126)
Massachusetts has a bad red zone defense (#98)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | BUFF | UMASS |
| OverallOver | #56 | #93 |
| OffenseOff | #77 | #91 |
| DefenseDef | #31 | #96 |
| Special TeamsST | #90 | #103 |
| PassingPass | #85 | #92 |
| RushingRush | #84 | #87 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #52 | #72 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #85 | #52 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #60 | #95 |
| TacklingTkl | #16 | #13 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #44 | #94 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #77 | #73 |
| Coverage DefCov | #21 | #84 |
Rematch from Week 3
Buffalo -3.5 (45.5)
Buffalo won vs Massachusetts this year (34-3)
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (34-3)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2022 (34-7)
Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: UMASS | BUFF
Depth Chart: UMASS | BUFF
Rosters: UMASS | BUFF
(#106) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has lost 1 straight
Buffalo has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has lost 1 straight
Buffalo has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taisun Phommachanh | 132 | 234 | 56% | 1590 | 8 | 6 | 6.8 |
| AJ Hairston | 40 | 73 | 55% | 480 | 5 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen John | 111 | 583 | 5 | 5.3 | 68 |
| C.J. Hester (Tr) | 119 | 529 | 4 | 4.4 | 24 |
| Taisun Phommachanh | 107 | 317 | 3 | 3.0 | 33 |
| Brandon Campbell (Tr) | 61 | 233 | 3 | 3.8 | 21 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr) | 51 | 870 | 6 | 17.1 | 75 |
| Ty Harding | 18 | 303 | 5 | 16.8 | 58 |
| Jacquon Gibson | 23 | 270 | 1 | 11.7 | 39 |
| Sterling Galban (Tr) | 25 | 210 | 0 | 8.4 | 21 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Stewart | 77 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Gerrell Johnson | 74 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Tyler Rudolph | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Te'Rai Powell | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louce Julien | 43 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Kofi Asare | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Stewart | 77 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Christian Lebrun | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Ellis (Tr) | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Isaiah Rutherford | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Tim Grant-Randall (Tr) | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Ogbonna | 190 | 336 | 57% | 2381 | 19 | 5 | 7.1 |
| Gunnar Gray | 4 | 11 | 36% | 41 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Jay Henderson | 204 | 1078 | 9 | 5.3 | 68 |
| CJ Ogbonna | 122 | 346 | 8 | 2.8 | 26 |
| Jacqez Barksdale | 82 | 306 | 2 | 3.7 | 19 |
| Messiah Burch | 29 | 153 | 2 | 5.3 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Snow | 55 | 651 | 6 | 11.8 | 46 |
| JJ Jenkins (Tr) | 36 | 536 | 4 | 14.9 | 90 |
| Al-Jay Henderson | 19 | 238 | 1 | 12.5 | 75 |
| Taji Johnson (Tr) | 19 | 215 | 2 | 11.3 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Khalil Murdock | 156 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Stewart (Tr) | 40 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Antonio Colclough (Tr) | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Cooper | 55 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |