Wake Forest at UConn - 2024 Matchup Preview

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at UConn Huskies

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wake Forest -2.5 (55.5) (-130) Open: -3.5
Wake Forest 23 - UConn: 20

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 6 - 1)
Coach Dave Clawson (63 - 61)
Avg Score : 26 - 33 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CONN coming off BYE
WAKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UConn -9 (SP+ CONN -7)
Projected Score: WAKE: 24 - CONN: 33 (56)
WAKE Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
WAKE Travel: 565 miles

Huskies (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Jim L. Mora (9 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (37 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WAKE Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T	-20.5
Sat 9/7	Wake Forest vs Virginia	+1.5	55.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Wake Forest vs Ole Miss	+20.5	65.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wake Forest vs Louisiana	-3.0	59.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wake Forest at NC State	+4.0	52.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wake Forest vs Clemson	+21.0	63.0	L 14 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/19	Wake Forest at UConn	-2.5	55.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wake Forest at Stanford	-3.0	53.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	Wake Forest vs California	+7.5	54.5	L 36 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/16	Wake Forest at North Carolina	+10.5	64.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wake Forest at Miami	+23.5	67.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/30	Wake Forest vs Duke	+3.5	53.5	L 17 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

UConn's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UConn at Maryland	+19.0	45.5	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/7	UConn vs Merrimack	-14.5	44.5	W 63 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UConn at Duke	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/21	UConn vs Florida Atlantic	-1.0	46.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/28	UConn vs Buffalo	-6.0	44.5	W 47 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/5	UConn vs Temple	-17.5	49.0	W 29 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	UConn vs Wake Forest	+2.5	55.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	UConn vs Rice	-6.5	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/1	UConn vs Georgia State	-7.0	48.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/9	UConn at UAB	-7.5	54.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UConn at Syracuse	+10.0	53.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UConn at Massachusetts	-9.5	49.5	W 47 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	UConn vs North Carolina	+2.0	53.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	#104 (.13)	42% (81)	25.7	43% (79)	3 (79)	131	41% (75)	240	3.2 (121)	#118 (.27)	51% (134)	32.5	48% (110)	53% (133)	4.12 (99)	45.9	1.8	1.4
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)	31.9	43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)	23.1	42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	#104 (.13)	42% (81)		43% (79)	3 (79)	131	41% (75)	240	3.2 (121)	#118 (.27)	51% (134)		48% (110)	53% (133)	4.12 (99)	45.9	1.8	1.4
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)		43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)		42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Offense	12	25.7	24.4	41.9%	3.2	1.8	22	372	131	240	3.6	48%	52%	43%	41%	16%	.13
CONN Defense	13	23.1	16.3	39.4%	3.36	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	42%	37%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Defense	12	32.5	29.4	50.7%	4.12	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	48%	53%	12%	.27
CONN Offense	13	31.9	36.9	41.8%	4.09	1.2	19	371	184	187	5.2	54%	46%	43%	40%	13%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wake Forest	12	28:51	21.8	39%	64%	5.1	45.9	1.8	1.4	4.9	1.7	2	29
UConn	13	27:16	19.1	37%	47%	5	50.4	1.2	1.1	5.2	1.6	2	31.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense	12	48% (86)	43% (79)	36.4	131.4	3.6	18 (78)	.05 (106)	3 (79)	81% (18)	10% (70)	0.92 (88)
CONN Defense	13	49% (45)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.05 (29)	2.76 (31)	63% (18)	10% (78)	0.89 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense	12	44% (6)	48% (110)	-	-	-	-	.18 (101)	3.13 (88)	80% (112)	8% (110)	0.96 (58)
CONN Offense	13	54% (39)	43% (82)	35.7	184.1	5.2	22 (55)	.18 (40)	3.07 (58)	77% (39)	7% (13)	1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense	12	52% (50)	41% (75)	20.7	33.6	240.1	7.2	11.6	17 (79)	13 (103)	.23 (83)	1.5 (115)	31% (63)	28% (102)	.15 (125)	7% (93)	1.9 (103)
CONN Defense	13	51% (84)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.17 (35)	1.5 (37)	32% (72)	26% (17)	.28 (57)	7% (23)	2.1 (97)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense	12	56% (129)	53% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.36 (116)	1.3 (2)	26% (130)	40% (132)	.41 (106)	4% (131)	1.8 (18)
CONN Offense	13	46% (96)	40% (84)	15.8	28.6	186.8	6.5	11.8	23 (41)	9 (48)	.23 (85)	1.5 (114)	30% (47)	30% (88)	.29 (86)	6% (87)	2 (82)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -10.36 #102
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 16.79 #98
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Wake Forest's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wake Forest's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #77
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #103

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -10.36 UConn: 1.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -5.7 UConn: 1.5

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 1.025 #80
UConn's Offense Rating: 17.51 #89
UConn's Defense Rating: 6.05 #36
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
UConn's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
UConn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #67
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #70
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #60

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 25.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.4
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.4

Wake Forest's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UConn 33
Wake Forest 24

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
UConn 37
Wake Forest 21

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
UConn 33
Wake Forest 22

Total Points: 55

UConn Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.9
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.3

UConn's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	UConn	20	Wake Forest	23	Wake Forest -2.5	Wake Forest	55.5	Under
2007	12/29	Wake Forest	24	UConn	10
2006	09/16	UConn	13	Wake Forest	24
2003	11/15	Wake Forest	17	UConn	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	1	0	0 Overs
Wake Forest	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#102) WAKE at (#80) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WAKE	CONN
Power RatePwr	#102	#80
SP+SP+	#93	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#42
OffenseOff	#67	#50
DefenseDef	#66	#51
Spec TeamsST	#53	#30
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#82

Wake Forest Notes(12/18) Hired HC Dickert (Wazzu)
(12/16) HC Clawson stepping down after 11 years
(11/25) Off abysmal vs Miami. Def all 40+ pts per in Nov
(11/18) Run D torched by NC. 2 QBs meh, Rgame bad
(11/13) Def (pass) torched by Cal, Rgame is awful, QB OK
(10/12) Have no answers other than pray for TOs
(10/6) Def #'s are near worst in CFB. Big W @ NC St
(9/28) Even game w/ Louisiana, Bach good, Rgame good
(9/8) Bach 403 yds but bad L (UVA), Pass D awful.
(8/19) New QB Bachmeier, WR ? w/ leader gone (Neb)
(8/19) 3 OL return off great unit LY, RB mid at best
(8/19) Def avg LY, bad in red zone, DL good, DBs big ?
Wake Forest Injury Report

UConn Notes(11/25) Pass D torched by Cuse. Off good, fought hard
(11/3) Rgame 272, 6.5 ypc in W (Ga St). Bowl eligible
(10/28) Sched light, but Def in top 20 in most categories
(10/28) Final 3 games on road, but could win 3/4 for 8 W's
(10/18) QB Fagnano or Evers, doesn't really matter
(10/4) Off lights out, Rgame nearly 250 ypg. Who's QB?
(8/11) Won't leave home weeks 4 - 10
(8/3) Mora grabbed a lot of P5 talent via portal
(7/30) Should improve from 3 W's LY, fringe bowl?
(7/30) QB Fagano back (inj). Add Ewers (bust @ OU/Wisc)
(7/30) Portals really good from bigger schools, good WR
(7/30) Def hoping new adds improve pretty poor unit LY
UConn Injury Report

Wake Forest on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	CONN Def
Perf GradePerf	#67	#51
SuccessSuc	#81	#37
ExplosiveExp	#111	#26
PPAPPA	#104	#25
PowerPwr	#98	#36
SP+SP+	#77	#60
Pts POPPO	#121	#26
HavocHav	#82	#53

Wake Forest Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#120	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#63
Run ExplRExp	#88	#28
PPAExp	#106	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#79	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#26
TackleTak	-	#57

Wake Forest Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#37
PPAExp	#83	#35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#37	#111
F7 HavocF7	#70	#78
DB HavocDB	#93	#23

UConn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	WAKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#50	#66
SuccessSuc	#82	#134
ExplosiveExp	#99	#12
PPAPPA	#67	#118
PowerPwr	#89	#115
SP+SP+	#70	#103
Pts POPPO	#51	#99
HavocHav	#30	#130

UConn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#87	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#82	#110
Run ExplRExp	#45	#58
PPAExp	#40	#101
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#88
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#98
TackleTak	-	#24

UConn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#133
Pass ExplPExl	#114	#2
PPAExp	#85	#116
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#54	#110
F7 HavocF7	#13	#110
DB HavocDB	#87	#131

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 65°

Rematch from Week 8
Wake Forest 2.5 (55.5)
Wake Forest won at UConn this year (23-20)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat UConn last year (23-20)

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	224	357	63%	2593	16	10	7.3
Michael Kern	24	45	53%	288	1	3	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	228	1048	11	4.6	60
Tate Carney	82	335	6	4.1	18
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	96	141	1	1.5	20
Ty Clark III	13	57	0	4.4	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Taylor Morin	64	756	2	11.8	51
Horatio Fields	39	463	4	11.9	42
Deuce Alexander	36	400	2	11.1	38
Donavon Greene	23	380	3	16.5	45

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Andersen	122	1	0	1	1
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1
Dylan Hazen	78	6	1	3	0
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	31	11	6	5	0
Kevin Pointer	33	7	4	8	1
Bryce Ganious	26	5	3	7	0
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
C'Darius Kelley	20	0	4
Jamare Glasker	37	3	4
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	3

CONN's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Fagnano	120	207	58%	1631	20	4	7.9
Nick Evers (Tr)	97	180	54%	918	5	5	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Edwards	146	830	8	5.7	71
Durell Robinson (Tr)	107	731	8	6.8	68
Jayden Brown	98	578	2	5.9	52
Nick Evers (Tr)	80	245	3	3.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Bell (Tr)	50	860	5	17.2	70
TJ Sheffield (Tr)	54	505	3	9.4	58
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	32	307	3	9.6	26
Louis Hansen	24	236	4	9.8	55

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald (Tr)	125	10	4	8	3
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Malik Dixon	67	1	0	0	3
Rante Jones	56	2	0	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Jayden McDonald (Tr)	125	10	4	8	3
Pryce Yates	21	7	4	5	1
Langston Hardy	44	7	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Cam Chadwick	47	1	0	1	6
Dalmont Gourdine	27	4	1	4	6