Buffalo at Akron - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Akron -1 (49.0) (-110) Open: -2.5
Buffalo 41 - Akron: 30 (Mid-American)

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

BUFF 2nd straight Road Game
AKR 2nd straight Home Game
BUFF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -7.5 (SP+ BUFF -14)
Projected Score: BUFF: 29 - AKR: 22 (53)
AKR Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
BUFF Travel: 193 miles

Zips (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (25 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
AKR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Akron's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Akron at Ohio State	+50.5	58.5	L 6 - 52	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Akron at Rutgers	+24.5	41.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Akron vs Colgate	-13.5	48.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	Akron at South Carolina	+25.0	42.0	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	Akron at Ohio	+8.5	46.0	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/5	Akron vs Bowling Green	+17.0	48.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Akron at Western Michigan	+9.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Akron vs Eastern Michigan	+2.5	50.5	W 25 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Akron vs Buffalo	-1.0	49.0	L 30 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/13	Akron at Northern Illinois	+14.0	43.5	L 16 - 29	O	Y
Tue 11/19	Akron at Kent State	-10.5	49.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Akron vs Toledo	+9.5	50.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Akron's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	28.8	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	26.4	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6
AKR	#129 (.04)	36% (124)	20.4	41% (86)	2.74 (123)	81	34% (121)	198	2.59 (131)	#29 (.12)	39% (37)	32	41% (53)	38% (22)	3.78 (68)	60.2	1.8	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AKR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	12	28.8	20	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03
AKR Defense	12	32	24.6	39.2%	3.78	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	38%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	12	26.4	33.7	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14
AKR Offense	12	20.4	25.4	36.4%	2.59	1.8	17	279	81	198	2.8	40%	58%	41%	34%	18%	.04

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4
Akron	12	29:33	16.7	33%	35%	6.9	60.2	1.8	0.9	5.2	1.6	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)
AKR Defense	12	52% (100)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.11 (49)	2.91 (38)	72% (62)	10% (77)	1.09 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)
AKR Offense	12	40% (124)	41% (86)	28.8	81	2.8	12 (116)	.09 (97)	2.74 (123)	81% (16)	10% (72)	0.9 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)
AKR Defense	12	47% (34)	38% (22)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.18 (19)	1.7 (102)	35% (23)	30% (63)	.31 (67)	5% (112)	2.2 (115)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)
AKR Offense	12	58% (14)	34% (121)	21.5	35.4	197.6	5.6	9.2	10 (120)	15 (116)	.07 (127)	1.4 (128)	35% (118)	24% (120)	.13 (122)	8% (121)	2.1 (54)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.53 Akron: -15.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0 Akron: -17.9

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -15.965 #121
Akron's Offense Rating: 12.44 #118
Akron's Defense Rating: 12.15 #90
2024 Talent Rating: 596.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
Akron's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Akron's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.7 #129
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 29
Akron 22

Projected Total Points: 53

Akron Scoring
Offense: 20.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.4
Defense: 32 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.6

Akron's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Akron	30	Buffalo	41	Buffalo	Akron -1	Buffalo	49.0	Over
2023	09/30	Akron	10	Buffalo	13	Buffalo	Akron -3	Buffalo	53.0	Under
2022	12/02	Buffalo	23	Akron	22	Buffalo	Buffalo -12.0	Akron	55.0	Under
2021	10/23	Akron	10	Buffalo	45	Buffalo	Buffalo -13.5	Buffalo	58.5	Under
2020	12/12	Buffalo	56	Akron	7	Buffalo	Buffalo -33.5	Buffalo	58.5	Over
2019	10/19	Akron	0	Buffalo	21	Buffalo	Buffalo -17.5	Buffalo	48.0	Under
2018	10/13	Buffalo	24	Akron	6	Buffalo	Buffalo -12	Buffalo	55.0	Under
2017	10/28	Akron	21	Buffalo	20	Akron	Buffalo -3	Akron	49.5	Under
2016	10/27	Buffalo	41	Akron	20	Buffalo	Akron -14.5	Buffalo	63.0	Under
2015	11/21	Akron	42	Buffalo	21	Akron	Akron -2.5	Akron	45.0	Over
2014	11/11	Buffalo	55	Akron	24	Buffalo	Akron -2.5	Buffalo	0
2011	11/19	Buffalo	51	Akron	10	Buffalo
2010	11/26	Akron	22	Buffalo	14	Akron
2009	10/17	Buffalo	21	Akron	17	Buffalo
2008	11/13	Akron	40	Buffalo	43	Buffalo
2007	10/27	Buffalo	26	Akron	10	Buffalo
2006	11/09	Akron	31	Buffalo	16	Akron
2005	10/08	Buffalo	7	Akron	13	Akron
2004	10/09	Akron	44	Buffalo	21	Akron
2003	09/27	Buffalo	21	Akron	38	Akron
2001	11/17	Buffalo	14	Akron	41	Akron
2000	11/10	Akron	49	Buffalo	14	Akron

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Akron	9	3	3 Overs
Buffalo	13	8	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 8	6 - 5	3 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 14	5 - 6	2 - 3	3 - 3

(#106) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -12.53 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all

Buffalo Ratings Matchup Akron

Power #106

#121

Off #104

#118

Def #93

#90

Talent #120

#75

SP+ #87

#123

SP+ Off #84

#129

SP+ Def #93

#117

Rematch from Week 10
Akron -1.0 (49.0)
Buffalo won at Akron this year (41-30)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Akron last year (41-30)
Buffalo beat Akron in 2023 (13-10)
Akron beat Buffalo in 2022 (0-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 53°

Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | AKR
Depth Chart: BUFF | AKR
Rosters: BUFF | AKR

(#121) Akron Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.965 #121
Offense Rating: 12.44 #118
Defense Rating: 12.15 #90
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.7 #129
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117
Talent Rating: 596.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.26 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Awful Pass Success 36%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Akron Notes
(11/27) Won 3 of last 5, competitive team most of season
(11/18) Run game awful vs N Ill, 50 rush, 19/52 pass
(10/27) Run game great vs EMU in W, 220 yds, 7.1 ypc
(10/13) Finley great, Rgame awful, 4 TO's in L WMU
(10/4) Pass heavy Off is awful but Run game is worse
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Zips may be CFB #2 worst
(8/16) Ohio St, Rutgers and SC? Why?
(8/16) Off was dead last LY. Not much TY
(7/30) Def has some pieces, DB's need rebuild
(7/30) HC Moorhead has 4 wins in 2 yrs. Hot Seat?

Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31
Lamar Sperling	39	150	1	3.8	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	6
Eddie Pleasant III (Tr)	11	0	0	5

Akron's OC Taylor Housewright

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley (Tr)	211	387	55%	2581	16	9	6.7
Brayden Roggow	1	2	50%	9	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	110	664	2	6.0	73
Charles Kellom	85	358	1	4.2	43
Ben Finley (Tr)	80	51	0	0.6	33
Bobby Golden	1	14	0	14.0	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bobby Golden	31	446	1	14.4	56
Ahmarian Granger	17	308	2	18.1	72
Jacob Newell	35	254	2	7.3	29
Charles Kellom	27	210	2	7.8	27

View Akron's Full Roster

Akron's DC Tim Tibesar

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan McCoy	120	3	0	3	2
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	0	1	6
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	0	6
C.J. Nunnally	55	12	6	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Nunnally	55	12	6	4	0
Justin Anderson	42	3	1	0	0
Nathan Kapongo (Tr)	36	6	1	2	0
Bruno Dall	9	2	1	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devonte Nelson	33	1	0	7
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	6
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	1	6