Toledo at Buffalo - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -10.5 (44.5) (-395) Open: -10.0
Buffalo 30 - Toledo: 15 (Mid-American)

Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BUFF coming off BYE
Our Line: Buffalo -0 (SP+ TOL -1.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 22 - BUFF: 22 (44)
TOL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TOL Travel: 264 miles

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Toledo vs Duquesne	-27.5	53.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-17.5	50.5	W 38 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/14	Toledo at Mississippi State	+10.5	56.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Toledo at Western Kentucky	-2.0	60.5	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-4.5	44.0	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Toledo at Buffalo	-10.5	44.5	L 15 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/19	Toledo at Northern Illinois	+3.0	42.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-1.5	47.5	L 26 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/2	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	54.5	W 29 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-15.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Toledo vs Ohio	-1.5	47.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/26	Toledo at Akron	-9.5	50.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/26	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Buffalo vs Lafayette	-3.5	45.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Buffalo at Missouri	+34.5	53.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Buffalo vs Massachusetts	-3.5	45.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Buffalo at Northern Illinois	+13.0	42.5	W 23 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Buffalo at UConn	+6.0	44.5	L 3 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Buffalo vs Toledo	+10.5	44.5	W 30 - 15	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+1.0	49.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Buffalo at Ohio	+4.0	46.5	L 16 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Buffalo at Akron	+1.0	49.0	W 41 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Buffalo vs Ball State	-3.5	55.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Wed 11/20	Buffalo at Eastern Michigan	+1.0	53.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Buffalo vs Kent State	-23.5	50.5	W 43 - 7	U	Y
Sat 1/4	Buffalo vs Liberty	-4.5	50.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	30.8	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	13.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	24	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	23.5	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	30.8	17.3	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	24.1	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	13.3	16.7	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1
BUFF Offense	12	24	24.6	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50 Buffalo: -5.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Buffalo: -4.0

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 181.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 22
Buffalo 22

Projected Total Points: 44

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Buffalo	30	Toledo	15	Toledo -10.5	Buffalo	44.5	Over
2023	10/31	Toledo	31	Buffalo	13	Toledo -14	Toledo	47.0	Under
2022	10/22	Buffalo	34	Toledo	27	Toledo -7.0	Buffalo	56.0	Over
2019	11/20	Buffalo	49	Toledo	30	Buffalo -9.5	Buffalo	55.0	Over
2018	10/20	Toledo	17	Buffalo	31	Toledo -3	Buffalo	63.0	Under
2013	11/12	Toledo	51	Buffalo	41	Toledo -3.5	Toledo	0
2012	10/27	Buffalo	20	Toledo	25
2007	10/13	Buffalo	43	Toledo	33
2005	10/22	Toledo	38	Buffalo	15
2003	11/01	Toledo	56	Buffalo	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	5	4	3 Overs
Toledo	5	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 2	5 - 1	3 - 1	2 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 8	1 - 5	0 - 2	1 - 3

(#99) TOL at (#106) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	BUFF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#106
SP+SP+	#80	#87
Perf GradeGrade	#50	#79
OffenseOff	#105	#96
DefenseDef	#14	#42
Spec TeamsST	#17	#110
TalentTal	#72	#121
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Toledo Notes(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
(9/12) Staff upgrade for Buffalo under Lembo & staff
Buffalo Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BUFF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#42
SuccessSuc	#34	#33
ExplosiveExp	#39	#99
PPAPPA	#27	#41
PowerPwr	#121	#93
SP+SP+	#88	#93
Pts POPPO	#26	#48
HavocHav	#15	#39

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#128	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#25
Run ExplRExp	#38	#131
PPAExp	#41	#76
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#32
TackleTak	-	#18

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#18
PPAExp	#24	#29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#90
F7 HavocF7	#24	#19
DB HavocDB	#35	#95

Buffalo on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#14
SuccessSuc	#116	#29
ExplosiveExp	#121	#38
PPAPPA	#130	#22
PowerPwr	#104	#50
SP+SP+	#84	#64
Pts POPPO	#95	#22
HavocHav	#79	#43

Buffalo Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#116	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#54
Run ExplRExp	#103	#64
PPAExp	#102	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#77
TackleTak	-	#3

Buffalo Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#43
PPAExp	#130	#10
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#21
F7 HavocF7	#40	#73
DB HavocDB	#119	#16

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Toledo 10.5 (44.5)
Buffalo won vs Toledo this year (30-15)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Toledo in 2024 (30-15)
Toledo beat Buffalo in 2023 (31-13)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Sevaughn Clark	62	209	0	3.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Ogbonna	190	336	57%	2381	19	5	7.1
Gunnar Gray	4	11	36%	41	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	204	1078	9	5.3	68
CJ Ogbonna	122	346	8	2.8	26
Jacqez Barksdale	82	306	2	3.7	19
Messiah Burch	29	153	2	5.3	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow	55	651	6	11.8	46
JJ Jenkins (Tr)	36	536	4	14.9	90
Al-Jay Henderson	19	238	1	12.5	75
Taji Johnson (Tr)	19	215	2	11.3	34

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Khalil Murdock	156	17	2	4	1
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Stewart (Tr)	40	12	10	3	2
Dion Crawford	58	15	9	4	2
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5
Antonio Colclough (Tr)	14	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marquis Cooper	55	3	0	1	8
Solomon Brown	66	2	0	0	6
Shaun Dolac (Tr)	168	18	5	4	5