Toledo Rockets at Buffalo Bulls
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -10.5 (44.5) (-395) Open: -10.0
Buffalo 30 - Toledo: 15 (Mid-American)
Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
BUFF coming off BYE
Our Line: Buffalo -0 (SP+ TOL -1.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 24 - BUFF: 24 (49)
TOL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TOL Travel: 264 miles
Our Line: Buffalo -0 (SP+ TOL -1.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 24 - BUFF: 24 (49)
TOL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TOL Travel: 264 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
| Toledo's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Toledo vs Duquesne | -27.5 | 53.5 | W 49 - 10 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Toledo vs Massachusetts | -17.5 | 50.5 | W 38 - 23 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Toledo at Mississippi State | +10.5 | 56.5 | W 41 - 17 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Toledo at Western Kentucky | -2.0 | 60.5 | L 21 - 26 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Toledo vs Miami (OH) | -4.5 | 44.0 | W 30 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Toledo at Buffalo | -10.5 | 44.5 | L 15 - 30 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Toledo at Northern Illinois | +3.0 | 42.5 | W 13 - 6 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Toledo vs Bowling Green | -1.5 | 47.5 | L 26 - 41 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | -10.0 | 54.5 | W 29 - 28 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Toledo vs Central Michigan | -15.0 | 52.5 | W 37 - 10 | U | Y | |
| Wed 11/20 | Toledo vs Ohio | -1.5 | 47.0 | L 7 - 24 | U | N | |
| Tue 11/26 | Toledo at Akron | -9.5 | 50.5 | L 14 - 21 | U | N | |
| Thu 12/26 | Toledo vs Pittsburgh | +6.5 | 48.5 | W 48 - 46 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
| Buffalo's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 30 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5 | 53.5 | L 0 - 38 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5 | 45.5 | W 34 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0 | 42.5 | W 23 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0 | 44.5 | L 3 - 47 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5 | 44.5 | W 30 - 15 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0 | 49.5 | L 41 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0 | 46.5 | L 16 - 47 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0 | 49.0 | W 41 - 30 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5 | 55.5 | W 51 - 48 | O | N | |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0 | 53.5 | W 37 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5 | 50.5 | W 43 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5 | 50.5 | W 26 - 7 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | #111 (.11) | 41% (95) | 28.3 | 38% (120) | 2.66 (121) | 111 | 44% (46) | 227 | 3.55 (99) | #20 (.09) | 40% (43) | 23.2 | 42% (60) | 38% (35) | 3.87 (79) | 46.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 28.8 | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 26.4 | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | #111 (.11) | 41% (95) | 38% (120) | 2.66 (121) | 111 | 44% (46) | 227 | 3.55 (99) | #20 (.09) | 40% (43) | 42% (60) | 38% (35) | 3.87 (79) | 46.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||
| BUFF | #77 (.17) | 40% (104) | 38% (115) | 2.7 (117) | 153 | 42% (70) | 176 | 4.22 (41) | #72 (.17) | 43% (82) | 43% (71) | 43% (97) | 3.84 (74) | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Offense | 13 | 28.3 | 22.2 | 40.8% | 3.55 | 1.3 | 18 | 339 | 111 | 227 | 3.5 | 46% | 53% | 38% | 44% | 16% | .11 |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 26.4 | 22.3 | 42.8% | 3.84 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 46% | 53% | 43% | 43% | 18% | .17 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Defense | 13 | 23.2 | 21.3 | 39.8% | 3.87 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 48% | 42% | 38% | 19% | .09 |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 28.8 | 38.2 | 39.6% | 4.22 | 1 | 17 | 329 | 153 | 176 | 4.2 | 55% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 17% | .17 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 13 | 25:06 | 18.4 | 36% | 50% | 5.4 | 46.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 31.4 |
| Buffalo | 13 | 26:20 | 17.2 | 34% | 52% | 4 | 39.3 | 1 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 31.2 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Offense | 13 | 46% (96) | 38% (120) | 31.5 | 111.3 | 3.5 | 12 (114) | -.04 (127) | 2.66 (121) | 57% (130) | 10% (74) | 0.83 (125) |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 46% (21) | 43% (71) | - | - | - | - | .08 (47) | 3.01 (68) | 63% (16) | 12% (35) | 0.94 (45) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Defense | 13 | 52% (83) | 42% (60) | - | - | - | - | .11 (66) | 3.01 (69) | 77% (89) | 12% (31) | 0.95 (48) |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 55% (36) | 38% (115) | 36.2 | 153.3 | 4.2 | 23 (52) | .08 (96) | 2.7 (117) | 61% (122) | 10% (84) | 1.11 (17) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Offense | 13 | 53% (41) | 44% (46) | 19.2 | 31 | 227.2 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 26 (26) | 7 (26) | .26 (67) | 1.6 (61) | 31% (65) | 27% (108) | .18 (115) | 6% (76) | 2 (68) |
| BUFF Defense | 13 | 53% (109) | 43% (97) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 (39) | .28 (91) | 1.7 (97) | 32% (58) | 29% (40) | .18 (18) | 7% (38) | 2.2 (100) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Defense | 13 | 48% (51) | 38% (35) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10 (66) | .08 (11) | 1.5 (29) | 34% (38) | 29% (39) | .22 (34) | 7% (35) | 2 (43) |
| BUFF Offense | 13 | 45% (99) | 42% (70) | 14.2 | 25.2 | 175.8 | 7 | 12.4 | 19 (65) | 6 (10) | .29 (47) | 1.5 (80) | 33% (97) | 31% (75) | .34 (66) | 6% (89) | 1.9 (106) |
Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50 Buffalo: -5.765
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Buffalo: -4.0
Toledo: -9.50 Buffalo: -5.765
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Buffalo: -4.0
Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3
Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3
Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 24
Buffalo 24
Total Points: 49
Toledo 24
Buffalo 24
Total Points: 49
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3
Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/12 | Buffalo | 30 | Toledo | 15 | Buffalo | Toledo -10.5 | Buffalo | 44.5 | Over |
| 2023 | 10/31 | Toledo | 31 | Buffalo | 13 | Toledo | Toledo -14 | Toledo | 47.0 | Under |
| 2022 | 10/22 | Buffalo | 34 | Toledo | 27 | Buffalo | Toledo -7.0 | Buffalo | 56.0 | Over |
| 2019 | 11/20 | Buffalo | 49 | Toledo | 30 | Buffalo | Buffalo -9.5 | Buffalo | 55.0 | Over |
| 2018 | 10/20 | Toledo | 17 | Buffalo | 31 | Buffalo | Toledo -3 | Buffalo | 63.0 | Under |
| 2013 | 11/12 | Toledo | 51 | Buffalo | 41 | Toledo | Toledo -3.5 | Toledo | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/27 | Buffalo | 20 | Toledo | 25 | Toledo | ||||
| 2007 | 10/13 | Buffalo | 43 | Toledo | 33 | Buffalo | ||||
| 2005 | 10/22 | Toledo | 38 | Buffalo | 15 | Toledo | ||||
| 2003 | 11/01 | Toledo | 56 | Buffalo | 29 | Toledo |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 5 | 4 | 3 Overs |
| Toledo | 5 | 2 | 2 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 8 - 2 | 5 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 2 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 2 - 8 | 1 - 5 | 0 - 2 | 1 - 3 |
(#99) Toledo Info
Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Toledo has won 1 straight
Toledo has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )
Toledo Notes
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
Toledo Highlights
Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Toledo Can Not Run the Ball (#28)
Toledo Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#41)
Toledo run game is really bad (#63)
Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Toledo has won 1 straight
Toledo has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )
Toledo Notes
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
Toledo Highlights
Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Toledo Can Not Run the Ball (#28)
Toledo Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#41)
Toledo run game is really bad (#63)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | BUFF | TOL |
| OverallOver | #56 | #36 |
| OffenseOff | #77 | #84 |
| DefenseDef | #31 | #11 |
| Special TeamsST | #90 | #15 |
| PassingPass | #85 | #58 |
| RushingRush | #84 | #96 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #52 | #90 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #85 | #101 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #60 | #28 |
| TacklingTkl | #16 | #3 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #44 | #14 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #77 | #19 |
| Coverage DefCov | #21 | #16 |
Rematch from Week 7
Toledo 10.5 (44.5)
Buffalo won vs Toledo this year (30-15)
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Toledo last year (30-15)
Toledo beat Buffalo in 2023 (31-13)
Buffalo beat Toledo in 2022 (34-27)
Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: TOL | BUFF
Depth Chart: TOL | BUFF
Rosters: TOL | BUFF
(#106) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has lost 1 straight
Buffalo has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: -5.765 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Buffalo has lost 1 straight
Buffalo has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
(10/4) OG'd 537-198 (UConn), Rgame awful/QBs worse
(9/23) Beat N Ill despite outgained 2-1. Off awful
(9/13) QB Ogbonna has not shown he can throw at all
Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo has a great TO Margin (#82)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)
Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo offense is really bad (#91)
Buffalo run game is really bad (#62)
Buffalo offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Gleason | 207 | 335 | 62% | 2457 | 22 | 7 | 7.3 |
| John Alan Richter | 43 | 67 | 64% | 497 | 4 | 0 | 7.4 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Walendzak | 122 | 457 | 1 | 3.7 | 32 |
| Tucker Gleason | 88 | 330 | 6 | 3.8 | 35 |
| Jacquez Stuart | 61 | 230 | 2 | 3.8 | 26 |
| Sevaughn Clark | 62 | 209 | 0 | 3.4 | 26 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerjuan Newton | 64 | 949 | 11 | 14.8 | 64 |
| Junior Vandeross | 73 | 763 | 4 | 10.5 | 73 |
| Anthony Torres | 27 | 362 | 8 | 13.4 | 78 |
| Jacquez Stuart | 15 | 170 | 0 | 11.3 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxen Hook | 108 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Daniel Bolden | 91 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Braden Awls | 67 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Jackson Barrow | 64 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Ragin | 42 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Anthony Dunn | 25 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Darius Alexander | 35 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Martez Poynter | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Smith | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Braden Awls | 67 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Darius Alexander | 35 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Ogbonna | 190 | 336 | 57% | 2381 | 19 | 5 | 7.1 |
| Gunnar Gray | 4 | 11 | 36% | 41 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Jay Henderson | 204 | 1078 | 9 | 5.3 | 68 |
| CJ Ogbonna | 122 | 346 | 8 | 2.8 | 26 |
| Jacqez Barksdale | 82 | 306 | 2 | 3.7 | 19 |
| Messiah Burch | 29 | 153 | 2 | 5.3 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Snow | 55 | 651 | 6 | 11.8 | 46 |
| JJ Jenkins (Tr) | 36 | 536 | 4 | 14.9 | 90 |
| Al-Jay Henderson | 19 | 238 | 1 | 12.5 | 75 |
| Taji Johnson (Tr) | 19 | 215 | 2 | 11.3 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Khalil Murdock | 156 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Stewart (Tr) | 40 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Dion Crawford | 58 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Antonio Colclough (Tr) | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Cooper | 55 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Solomon Brown | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Shaun Dolac (Tr) | 168 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 5 |