New Mexico State at Western Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Western Kentucky -4.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 38 - Western Kentucky: 29 (Conference USA)

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WKU is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -0.5 (SP+ NMSU -2.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 27 - WKU: 28 (55)
WKU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 1195 miles, 1 hrs behind

Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Kentucky vs South Florida	-13.5	71.5	W 41 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian	-41.5	64.5	W 52 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/16	Western Kentucky at Ohio State	+29.5	65.0	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Kentucky at Troy	+3.5	57.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	61.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-6.0	59.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-7.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 10/24	Western Kentucky vs Liberty	+4.0	61.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Western Kentucky at UTEP	-9.5	54.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-4.5	55.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-12.5	52.0	W 28 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-11.5	54.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Mon 12/18	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.18	38%	21.6	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	27.6	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2
WKU	.28	44%	29.5	43%	3.17	145	46%	352	3.63	.11	41%	22.8	44%	40%	4.02	57.5	1.6	2.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	20	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18
WKU Defense	14	22.8	18.8	41.4%	4.02	2.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	44%	40%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	13	27.6	37.5	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16
WKU Offense	14	29.5	35	44.5%	3.63	1.6	25	497	145	352	4.9	37%	62%	43%	46%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7
Western Kentucky	14	28:57	24.6	42%	40%	6.2	57.5	1.6	2.9	4.9	2.3	5	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08
WKU Defense	14	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	79%	10%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9
WKU Offense	14	37%	43%	29.6	145.1	4.9	15	.18	3.17	71%	7%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2
WKU Defense	14	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.12	1.4	33%	25%	.14	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2
WKU Offense	14	62%	46%	28.7	44.4	352.3	7.9	12.3	43	12	.39	1.7	31%	37%	.52	10%	2.4

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 378.99 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 Western Kentucky: 1.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 Western Kentucky: -1.5

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 1.245 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 491.26 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 28
New Mexico State 27

Projected Total Points: 55

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Western Kentucky	35	New Mexico State	16	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	53.5	Under
2024	11/09	New Mexico State	28	Western Kentucky	41	Western Kentucky -18.0	New Mexico State	53.5	Over
2023	11/11	Western Kentucky	29	New Mexico State	38	Western Kentucky -4.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	2	1	2 Overs
New Mexico State	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#60) NMSU at (#70) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#70
SP+SP+	#62	#72
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#108
OffenseOff	#58	#111
DefenseDef	#107	#90
Spec TeamsST	#107	#33
TalentTal	#115	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico State Injury Report

Western Kentucky Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#17	#70
SP+SP+	#75	#86
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#128

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#63
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#46	#77
SP+SP+	#55	#46
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#133	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#119

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#83	#68
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Western Kentucky -4.5 (55.5)
New Mexico State won at Western Kentucky this year (38-29)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State last year (35-16)
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State in 2024 (41-28)
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (38-29)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6

WKU's OC Drew Hollingshead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Reed (Tr)	289	470	62%	3324	31	11	7.1
Caden Veltkamp	41	54	76%	387	5	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	104	490	3	4.7	64
Markese Stepp	69	310	3	4.5	56
Davion Ervin-Poindexter	63	241	1	3.8	18
LT Sanders	31	138	0	4.5	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Corley	79	984	11	12.5	75
Dalvin Smith	50	513	6	10.3	45
Easton Messer	42	484	4	11.5	35
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	20	326	2	16.3	39

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Talique Allen (Tr)	48	1	0	1	3
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Desmyn Baker	41	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Sebastian Benjamin	25	3	3	2	0
Hosea Wheeler	40	4	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Upton Stout	24	1	1	5	8
Rome Weber	19	1	0	0	7
Anthony Johnson Jr.	36	1	0	0	5