New Mexico State at Western Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky HilltoppersWestern Kentucky logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Western Kentucky -4.5 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 38 - Western Kentucky: 29  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
WKU is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -0.5   (SP+ NMSU -2.5)

Projected Score: NMSU: 28 - WKU: 28 (56)
WKU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 1195 miles, 1 hrs behind
Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (35 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.045.5L 30 - 41ON
Sat 9/2 New Mexico State vs Western Illinois-21.055.0W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 New Mexico State at Liberty+9.054.5L 17 - 33UN
Sat 9/16 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2.552.0W 27 - 17UY
Sat 9/23 New Mexico State at Hawai'i+4.054.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4 New Mexico State vs Florida International-6.549.5W 34 - 17OY
Wed 10/11 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-4.543.0W 27 - 13UY
Wed 10/18 New Mexico State at UTEP-3.048.5W 28 - 7UY
Tue 10/24 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+3.055.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.055.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+4.555.5W 38 - 29OY
Sat 11/18 New Mexico State at Auburn+25.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State-2.048.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.554.0L 35 - 49ON
Sat 12/16 New Mexico State vs Fresno State-3.052.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Western Kentucky vs South Florida-13.571.5W 41 - 24UY
Sat 9/9 Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian-41.564.5W 52 - 22ON
Sat 9/16 Western Kentucky at Ohio State+29.565.0L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/23 Western Kentucky at Troy+3.557.0L 24 - 27UY
Thu 9/28 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-6.561.0W 31 - 10UY
Thu 10/5 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-6.059.0W 35 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-7.560.5L 17 - 20UN
Tue 10/24 Western Kentucky vs Liberty+4.061.5L 29 - 42ON
Sat 11/4 Western Kentucky at UTEP-9.554.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 11/11 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-4.555.5L 29 - 38ON
Sat 11/18 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-12.552.0W 28 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Western Kentucky at Florida International-11.554.0W 41 - 28OY
Mon 12/18 Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion+4.049.0W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#29 (.28)47% (17)27.552% (7)3.57 (5)19942% (61)2143.98 (59)#91 (.22)45% (103)22.846% (96)44% (96)3.73 (63)58.310.9
WKU#47 (.22)40% (92)30.538% (119)3.07 (78)10741% (70)2954.95 (6)#81 (.2)44% (98)28.748% (121)41% (53)4 (87)36.81.81.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1527.527.547.3%3.981204121992145.755%45%52%42%14%.28
WKU Defense1328.726.544%41.8 - - - - - 52%47%48%41%14%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1522.823.644.5%3.730.9 - - - - - 47%52%46%44%16%.22
WKU Offense1330.53540%4.951.8204021072953.938%61%38%41%16%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1531:2820.543%58%6.258.310.95.52.1128.2
Western Kentucky1329:3220.243%62%4.536.81.81.84.42128.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1555% (31)52% (7)35.1198.65.722 (51).27 (11)3.57 (5)81% (17)8% (35)0.96 (92)
WKU Defense1352% (94)48% (121) - - - - .19 (98)3.47 (125)73% (65)9% (109)0.96 (45)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1547% (33)46% (96) - - - - .2 (103)3.21 (95)74% (73)10% (70)1.02 (80)
WKU Offense1338% (128)38% (119)27.5106.63.912 (116).06 (117)3.07 (78)76% (45)8% (23)0.93 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1545% (100)42% (61)15.726.2213.78.213.628 (23)10 (56).33 (52)1.7 (32)29% (15)34% (40).42 (41)6% (61)2 (68)
WKU Defense1347% (37)41% (53) - - - - - - 15 (15).27 (64)1.6 (69)31% (80)32% (99).37 (97)6% (81)1.9 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1552% (108)44% (96) - - - - - - 7 (111).25 (53)1.5 (20)29% (114)30% (67).38 (102)6% (83)2.3 (121)
WKU Offense1361% (6)41% (70)26.441.5295.27.111.238 (3)14 (107).35 (42)1.7 (29)33% (90)31% (69).39 (46)9% (128)2.4 (4)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03   Western Kentucky: 1.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0   Western Kentucky: -1.5




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 1.245 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 28
New Mexico State 28


Total Points: 56

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.5

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09New Mexico State28Western Kentucky41Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -18.0New Mexico State53.5Over
202311/11Western Kentucky29New Mexico State38New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky -4.5New Mexico State55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky102 Overs
New Mexico State120 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#60) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: 0.03 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60


New Mexico State has won 5 straight
New Mexico State has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 3 (6 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State has Really Good Running Game (#136)
New Mexico State offense is efficent (#128)
New Mexico State has a top Offensive Line (#136)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State has a bad defense (#22)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWKUNMSU
OverallOver#90#65
OffenseOff#94#54
DefenseDef#68#82
Special TeamsST#30#85
PassingPass#61#36
RushingRush#98#9
Run BlockRBLK#96#73
Pass BlockPBLK#71#93
Route RunningWR Rt#68#60
TacklingTkl#110#101
Run DefenseR Def#103#87
Pass Rush DefPRush#50#52
Coverage DefCov#29#87

Rematch from Week 11
Western Kentucky -4.5 (55.5)
New Mexico State won at Western Kentucky this year (38-29)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State last year (41-28)
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (38-29)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | WKU
Depth Chart: NMSU | WKU
Rosters: NMSU | WKU
(#70) Western Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 1.245 #70
Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40


Western Kentucky has won 1 straight
Western Kentucky has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky offense is explosive (#19)
Western Kentucky offense is good in red zone (#32)
Western Kentucky does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#114)

Western Kentucky commits very few Penalties (#75)
Western Kentucky defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky Does Not Stuff Runs (#80)
Western Kentucky has a bad defensive line (#94)


  
New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia22136660%29732698.1
Blaze Berlowitz101953%134117.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia17692375.244
Star Thomas11265345.840
Ahmonte Watkins5957229.780
Jamoni Jones8734333.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Brady38624416.480
Trent Hudson345451016.078
Eli Stowers (Tr)35366210.532
Chris Bellamy18282115.752

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Myles Rowser (Tr)700002
Jordan Vincent (Tr)653203
Jeremiah Dervil621014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sterling Webb306510
Buddha Peleti347540
Izaiah Reed234450
Gabe Peterson559450
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Seldon533007
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Keonte Glinton (Tr)180016

Western Kentucky's OC Drew Hollingshead
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Reed (Tr)28947062%332431117.1
Caden Veltkamp415476%387517.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Young10449034.764
Markese Stepp6931034.556
Davion Ervin-Poindexter6324113.818
LT Sanders3113804.556
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Corley799841112.575
Dalvin Smith50513610.345
Easton Messer42484411.535
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)20326216.339

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster
Western Kentucky's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendrick Simpkins5012881
Talique Allen (Tr)481013
Kylan Guidry486310
Desmyn Baker413121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendrick Simpkins5012881
Kylan Guidry486310
Sebastian Benjamin253320
Hosea Wheeler404210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Upton Stout241158
Rome Weber191007
Anthony Johnson Jr.361005