New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview
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New Mexico State Aggies at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Louisiana Tech logo
Tuesday, October 24th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -3 (55.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 27 - Louisiana Tech: 24  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
LT coming off BYE
NMSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -8.5  (SP+ NMSU -13.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 31 - LT: 23 (54)
LT Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NMSU Travel: 821 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (5 - 11)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.045.5L 30 - 41ON
Sat 9/2 New Mexico State vs Western Illinois-21.055.0W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 New Mexico State at Liberty+9.054.5L 17 - 33UN
Sat 9/16 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2.552.0W 27 - 17UY
Sat 9/23 New Mexico State at Hawai'i+4.054.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4 New Mexico State vs Florida International-6.549.5W 34 - 17OY
Wed 10/11 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-4.543.0W 27 - 13UY
Wed 10/18 New Mexico State at UTEP-3.048.5W 28 - 7UY
Tue 10/24 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+3.055.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.055.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+4.555.5W 38 - 29OY
Sat 11/18 New Mexico State at Auburn+25.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State-2.048.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.554.0L 35 - 49ON
Sat 12/16 New Mexico State vs Fresno State-3.052.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-12.057.5W 22 - 17UN
Sat 9/2 Louisiana Tech at SMU+21.066.0L 14 - 38UN
Sat 9/9 Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State-23.058.5W 51 - 21OY
Sat 9/16 Louisiana Tech vs North Texas-4.566.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/23 Louisiana Tech at Nebraska+20.544.5L 14 - 28UY
Fri 9/29 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-2.049.5W 24 - 10UY
Thu 10/5 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky+6.059.0L 28 - 35ON
Tue 10/10 Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee+3.053.5L 23 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/24 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-3.055.0L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Louisiana Tech at Liberty+16.558.0L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/11 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-8.549.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/18 Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State+8.553.5L 17 - 56ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU.1838%21.640%2.8816236%1694.18.1643%27.647%40%3.8657.41.41.2
LT.1439%27.340%2.7812539%2673.34.2743%20.846%40%4.1463.92.12.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1321.62037.7%4.181.4173311621694.656%43%40%36%19%.18
LT Defense1220.817.342.6%4.142.5 - - - - - 52%48%46%40%14%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1327.637.543%3.861.2 - - - - - 53%46%47%40%17%.16
LT Offense1227.336.538.9%3.342.1193931252673.844%55%40%39%21%.14

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1328:5116.639%73%6.557.41.41.25.52.1128.7
Louisiana Tech1230:0519.437%45%6.863.92.12.54.61.3229.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1356%40%34.9161.64.624.132.8884%11%1.08
LT Defense1252%46% - - - - .333.3681%9%1.25
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1353%47% - - - - .173.1178%11%0.9
LT Offense1244%40%33.3125.43.814.112.7858%11%1.03

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1343%36%12.223.5169.27.213.81813.251.935%30%.328%2
LT Defense1248%40% - - - - - - 11.241.734%34%.46%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1346%40% - - - - - - 7.211.530%30%.376%2
LT Offense1255%39%21.236.2267.37.412.62519.251.832%28%.1810%2.1

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03  #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21  #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44  #77
2023 Talent Rating: 378.99  #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0  #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03   Louisiana Tech: -8.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0   Louisiana Tech: -12.5




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -8.065  #113
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 15.14  #80
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 14.18  #112
2023 Talent Rating: 433.72  #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.5  #110
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #87
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.9  #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico State 31
Louisiana Tech 23

Projected Total Points: 54
Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Louisiana Tech49New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech -10Louisiana Tech42.5Over
202410/15New Mexico State33Louisiana Tech30Louisiana Tech -12.5New Mexico State49.0Over
202310/24Louisiana Tech24New Mexico State27Louisiana Tech -3New Mexico State55.0Under
201210/27New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech28
201111/26Louisiana Tech44New Mexico State0
201011/13New Mexico State20Louisiana Tech41
200910/17Louisiana Tech45New Mexico State7
200811/22New Mexico State31Louisiana Tech35
200710/13Louisiana Tech22New Mexico State21
200612/02New Mexico State50Louisiana Tech23
200510/01Louisiana Tech34New Mexico State14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech812 Overs
New Mexico State321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 42 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#60) NMSU at (#113) LT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSULT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #60 #113
SP+SP+ #62 #110
Perf GradeGrade #80 #104
OffenseOff #58 #89
DefenseDef #107 #116
Spec TeamsST #107 #76
TalentTal #115 #105
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
New Mexico State on Offense
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #116
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #17 #112
SP+SP+ #75 #122
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
New Mexico State Run Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Run GameRun #10 #128
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #67
New Mexico State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #47 #46
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #103
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Louisiana Tech on Offense
CategoryCatLT OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #89 #107
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #80 #77
SP+SP+ #87 #46
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Louisiana Tech Run Game
CategoryCat
LT OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #98 #102
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #119
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
CategoryCatLT OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #49 #107
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #81 #68
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Louisiana Tech -3.0 (55.0)
New Mexico State won at Louisiana Tech this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat New Mexico State last year (49-14)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2024 (33-30)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (27-24)

  
NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia22136660%29732698.1
Blaze Berlowitz101953%134117.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia17692375.244
Star Thomas11265345.840
Ahmonte Watkins5957229.780
Jamoni Jones8734333.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Brady38624416.480
Trent Hudson345451016.078
Eli Stowers (Tr)35366210.532
Chris Bellamy18282115.752

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Myles Rowser (Tr)700002
Jordan Vincent (Tr)653203
Jeremiah Dervil621014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sterling Webb306510
Buddha Peleti347540
Izaiah Reed234450
Gabe Peterson559450
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Seldon533007
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Keonte Glinton (Tr)180016

LT's OC Jake Brown (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)18226968%20581057.7
Jack Turner8414757%1017556.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyre Shelton (Tr)9755155.756
Keith Willis5128875.668
Charvis Thornton5527014.947
Keldric Moody3414904.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Smoke Harris8379649.664
Cyrus Allen46778416.985
Kyle Maxwell20363218.247
Tru Edwards23284212.336

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Scott Power (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeslord Boateng (Tr)939101
Myles Heard (Tr)886034
Brevin Randle (Tr)749212
Cecil Singleton741001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshon Hall305410
Rason Williams II235320
Jessie Evans327301
Brevin Randle (Tr)749212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willie Roberts3810012
Michael Richard Jr.322027
Jhamal Shelby Jr.91004