Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State

Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (6:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -3.0 (55.5) (-160) Open: -3.0 | 56.5
New Mexico State 13 - Middle Tennessee: 7 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (16 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MTSU coming off BYE
NMSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -11.5 (SP+ NMSU -10)
Projected Score: MTSU: 21 - NMSU: 32 (53)
NMSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MTSU Travel: 1190 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	24.3	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	28.1	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	24.3	16.3	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	19.3	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	28.1	31.3	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	30.3	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -7.24 New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -9.4 New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 32
Middle Tennessee 21

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 33
Middle Tennessee 20

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 29
Middle Tennessee 21

Total Points: 50

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	New Mexico State	24	Middle Tennessee	31	New Mexico State -3.5	Middle Tennessee	52.0	Over
2024	11/23	Middle Tennessee	21	New Mexico State	36	Middle Tennessee -3.5	New Mexico State	54.0	Over
2023	11/04	New Mexico State	13	Middle Tennessee	7	New Mexico State -3.0	New Mexico State	55.5	Under
2004	11/06	New Mexico State	44	Middle Tennessee	10
2003	10/11	Middle Tennessee	35	New Mexico State	18
2002	11/02	New Mexico State	24	Middle Tennessee	21
2001	10/27	Middle Tennessee	39	New Mexico State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	4	2	2 Overs
Middle Tennessee	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 5	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#101) MTSU at (#60) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#101	#60
SP+SP+	#100	#62
Perf GradeGrade	#125	#80
OffenseOff	#122	#58
DefenseDef	#107	#107
Spec TeamsST	#43	#107
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#107
SuccessSuc	#104	#103
ExplosiveExp	#14	#44
PPAPPA	#95	#91
PowerPwr	#109	#77
SP+SP+	#92	#46
Pts POPPO	#115	#63
HavocHav	#89	#83

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#96	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#96
Run ExplRExp	#28	#80
PPAExp	#93	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#20
PPAExp	#84	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#56	#68
F7 HavocF7	#95	#70
DB HavocDB	#70	#83

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#107
SuccessSuc	#17	#81
ExplosiveExp	#88	#23
PPAPPA	#29	#60
PowerPwr	#17	#69
SP+SP+	#75	#89
Pts POPPO	#59	#100
HavocHav	#34	#49

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#88
Run ExplRExp	#92	#13
PPAExp	#11	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#31
TackleTak	-	#93

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#47
PPAExp	#52	#96
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#78
F7 HavocF7	#35	#65
DB HavocDB	#61	#31

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 79°

Rematch from Week 10
New Mexico State -3.0 (55.5)
New Mexico State won vs Middle Tennessee this year (13-7)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Middle Tennessee last year (36-21)
New Mexico State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (13-7)

MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	286	428	67%	3087	23	13	7.2
DJ Riles	7	8	88%	78	0	0	9.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	89	427	2	4.8	71
Nick Vattiato	139	402	2	2.9	30
Frank Peasant	82	306	4	3.7	37
Terry Wilkins	18	146	1	8.1	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	46	697	5	15.2	62
Elijah Metcalf	54	634	6	11.7	71
Justin Olson (Tr)	43	450	1	10.5	42
DJ England-Chisolm	28	347	3	12.4	72

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Jakobe Thomas	71	3	0	0	5
Tra Fluellen	64	3	0	1	3
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Richard Kinley	20	7	3	3	3
Zaylin Wood	16	4	3	2	2
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quindarius Dunnigan	34	9	2	5	8
Tyrell Raby (Tr)	29	0	0	0	6
De'Arre McDonald	18	4	1	0	6

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6