Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State Game Matchup

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (6:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -3.0 (55.5) (-160) Open: -3.0 | 56.5
New Mexico State 13 - Middle Tennessee: 7 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MTSU coming off BYE
NMSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -11.5 (SP+ NMSU -10)
Projected Score: MTSU: 22 - NMSU: 34 (55)
NMSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MTSU Travel: 1190 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	.14	40%	18.1	40%	2.69	109	41%	265	3.45	.1	41%	34.3	40%	43%	3.63	58.8	1.4	2.8
NMSU	.18	38%	21.6	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	36.3	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	13	18.1	14.2	40.3%	3.45	1.4	20	374	109	265	3.2	40%	59%	40%	41%	18%	.14
NMSU Defense	13	36.3	34.8	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	13	34.3	35.8	40.9%	3.63	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	43%	20%	.1
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	30.5	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	13	28:42	20.2	34%	58%	6.6	58.8	1.4	2.8	6.4	2.7	6	31.8
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	13	40%	40%	34.7	109.5	3.2	20	.1	2.69	76%	12%	1
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.64	55%	10%	0.95
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	13	59%	41%	26.2	39.4	264.8	6.7	10.1	21	11	.21	1.5	33%	32%	.33	5%	1.9
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	13	58%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	.25	1.6	33%	35%	.36	9%	2
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 334.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -7.24 New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -9.4 New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 34
Middle Tennessee 22

Projected Total Points: 55

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Middle Tennessee	21	New Mexico State	36	New Mexico State	Middle Tennessee -3.5	New Mexico State	54.0	Over
2023	11/04	New Mexico State	13	Middle Tennessee	7	New Mexico State	New Mexico State -3.0	New Mexico State	55.5	Under
2004	11/06	New Mexico State	44	Middle Tennessee	10	New Mexico State
2003	10/11	Middle Tennessee	35	New Mexico State	18	Middle Tennessee
2002	11/02	New Mexico State	24	Middle Tennessee	21	New Mexico State
2001	10/27	Middle Tennessee	39	New Mexico State	35	Middle Tennessee

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	4	2	1 Overs
Middle Tennessee	2	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 5	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#101) Middle Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89
Talent Rating: 334.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90

Team Profile

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Middle Tennessee Ratings Matchup New Mexico State

Power #101

#60

Off #109

#17

Def #69

#77

Talent #124

#128

SP+ #100

#62

SP+ Off #92

#75

SP+ Def #89

#46

Rematch from Week 10
New Mexico State -3.0 (55.5)
New Mexico State won vs Middle Tennessee this year (13-7)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Middle Tennessee last year (36-21)
New Mexico State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (13-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 79°

Team Information
Injuries: MTSU | NMSU
Depth Chart: MTSU | NMSU
Rosters: MTSU | NMSU

(#60) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.015 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60

Team Profile

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Middle Tennessee's OC Mitch Stewart

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyle Lowe	3	7	43%	18	1	0	2.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	109	471	4	4.3	66
Kyle Lowe	9	57	1	6.3	56
DJ Riles	2	27	0	13.5	17
Jayce Gardner	1	8	0	8.0	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	53	871	6	16.4	61
Elijah Metcalf	20	194	3	9.7	28
DJ Riles	20	172	0	8.6	27
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	27	125	0	4.6	19

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

Middle Tennessee's DC Scott Shafer

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Sam Brumfield	61	3	2	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	1
Jakobe Thomas	22	3	1	2
Chris Johnson	18	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raquon Hartley	13	4	3	0	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Sam Brumfield	61	3	2	0	1
Zaylin Wood	7	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Johnson	18	1	0	3
James Shellman	13	0	0	3
Jakobe Thomas	22	3	1	2

New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	177	298	59%	2293	20	4	7.7
Eli Stowers (Tr)	1	2	50%	17	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas	213	871	7	4.1	44
Diego Pavia	193	800	8	4.1	36
Ahmonte Watkins	16	66	0	4.1	24
Jordin Parker	3	55	0	18.3	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Stowers (Tr)	49	638	5	13.0	41
Ta'ir Brooks	22	367	4	16.7	68
Jonathan Brady	34	366	3	10.8	30
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Dylan Early	48	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Denver Warren	21	3	3	1	1
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Jeremiah Vessel	10	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi McLean	44	1	0	0	4
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	34	1	0	0	3