Fresno State at Utah State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies

Friday, October 13th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -5.5 (56.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Fresno State 37 - Utah State: 32 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Road Game
USU 2nd straight Home Game
USU is playing their 7th straight game
FRES is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -6 (SP+ FRES -9)
Projected Score: FRES: 30 - USU: 24 (55)
FRES Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FRES Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Utah State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Utah State at Iowa	+24.0	43.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Utah State vs Idaho State	-24.0	61.0	W 78 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	45.5	L 21 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/23	Utah State vs James Madison	+5.5	53.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Utah State at UConn	-4.0	50.5	W 34 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	62.0	W 44 - 24	O	Y
Fri 10/13	Utah State vs Fresno State	+5.5	56.0	L 32 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Utah State at San José State	+4.0	65.0	L 21 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Utah State at San Diego State	-2.0	56.5	W 32 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Utah State vs Nevada	-14.5	54.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Utah State vs Boise State	+5.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/24	Utah State at New Mexico	-4.5	58.5	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/23	Utah State vs Georgia State	-2.0	58.0	L 22 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	.24	47%	25.8	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	18.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6
USU	.07	38%	30.9	39%	3.13	159	38%	195	3.15	.17	41%	28.7	44%	39%	4.05	77.5	2.1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	14	25.8	26.3	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	41.2%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	44%	39%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	14	18.8	24.8	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	37.9%	3.15	2.1	20	354	159	195	3.8	55%	44%	39%	38%	17%	.07

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7
Utah State	13	28:47	19.8	33%	53%	8.5	77.5	2.1	1.7	5.8	2.7	3	30.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86
USU Defense	13	55%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3	71%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04
USU Offense	13	55%	39%	42.2	159.3	3.8	14	.08	3.13	72%	9%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8
USU Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.26	1.7	31%	29%	.24	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9
USU Offense	13	44%	38%	17.7	30.6	195.2	6.4	11	18	21	.13	1.5	32%	26%	.08	8%	1.7

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.07 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 555.30 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.07 Utah State: -5.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.5 Utah State: -8.5

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -5.705 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 435.99 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 30
Utah State 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Fresno State	17	Utah State	28	Fresno State -1.5	Utah State	50.5	Under
2023	10/13	Utah State	32	Fresno State	37	Fresno State -5.5	Utah State	56.0	Over
2020	11/14	Utah State	16	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -10.5	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2019	11/09	Fresno State	35	Utah State	37	Fresno State -5	Utah State	59.0	Over
2016	10/22	Utah State	38	Fresno State	20	Utah State -14	Utah State	51.0	Over
2015	10/10	Fresno State	14	Utah State	56	Utah State -10	Utah State	50.0	Over
2013	12/07	Fresno State	24	Utah State	17	Fresno State -6	Fresno State	0
2011	10/15	Fresno State	31	Utah State	21
2010	09/18	Utah State	24	Fresno State	41
2009	10/31	Fresno State	31	Utah State	27
2008	10/25	Utah State	28	Fresno State	30
2007	11/03	Fresno State	38	Utah State	27
2006	10/07	Utah State	13	Fresno State	12
2005	10/15	Fresno State	53	Utah State	21
2001	12/01	Fresno State	70	Utah State	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	5	5	4 Overs
Fresno State	10	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	3 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 8	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 2

(#59) FRES at (#107) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#59	#107
SP+SP+	#63	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#63	#113
OffenseOff	#44	#67
DefenseDef	#100	#131
Spec TeamsST	#74	#91
TalentTal	#78	#104
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Fresno State Injury Report

Utah State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#131
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#53	#103
SP+SP+	#58	#129
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#100
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#72	#45
SP+SP+	#49	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#27	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#100

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#129	#79
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Fresno State 5.5 (56.0)
Fresno State won at Utah State this year (37-32)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Fresno State last year (28-17)
Fresno State beat Utah State in 2023 (37-32)

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cooper Legas	138	213	65%	1815	19	8	8.5
McCae Hillstead	94	158	60%	1062	11	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth	120	805	6	6.7	65
Rahsul Faison	118	736	5	6.2	60
Robert Briggs	80	420	2	5.3	58
Levi Williams	45	209	3	4.6	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	71	1080	15	15.2	71
Terrell Vaughn	90	937	11	10.4	76
Micah Davis	36	628	6	17.4	76
Colby Bowman (Tr)	11	247	2	22.5	63

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Tafisi	142	9	0	2	1
Ike Larsen	102	5	0	1	6
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Devin Dye	82	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Paul Fitzgerald	46	9	7	1	1
Blaine Spires	26	8	5	10	1
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Hale Motu'apuaka	33	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Devin Dye	82	2	7
Jordan Drew	27	0	6
Avante Dickerson	17	0	6