Fresno State at Arizona State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Arizona State Sun Devils

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -4 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Fresno State 29 - Arizona State: 0

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (27 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 96.6° (14% Hum)
ASU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -7.5 (SP+ FRES -12.5)
Projected Score: FRES: 29 - ASU: 22 (51)
FRES Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 500 miles, 1 hrs behind

Sun Devils (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 32 (21 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#127)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
ASU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Arizona State vs Southern Utah	-34.0	60.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/9	Arizona State vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	53.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arizona State vs Fresno State	+4.0	48.0	L 0 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arizona State vs USC	+34.5	62.0	L 28 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arizona State at California	+13.0	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Arizona State vs Colorado	+3.0	58.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arizona State at Washington	+28.0	59.5	L 7 - 15	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Arizona State vs Washington State	+4.5	49.0	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arizona State at Utah	+11.0	40.5	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/11	Arizona State at UCLA	+14.0	45.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arizona State vs Oregon	+21.5	52.5	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	Arizona State vs Arizona	+12.5	48.5	L 23 - 59	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	30.5	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	23.5	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8
ASU	#110 (.12)	38% (112)	17.8	44% (57)	3.14 (62)	111	34% (123)	210	3.28 (108)	#112 (.25)	47% (123)	31.8	47% (105)	47% (125)	3.99 (86)	51.8	1.7	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)		52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)		41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	30.5	26.7	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22
ASU Defense	12	31.8	35.1	46.5%	3.99	1	-	-	-	-	-	42%	58%	47%	47%	16%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	23.5	27.7	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18
ASU Offense	12	17.8	20.6	37.7%	3.28	1.7	19	322	111	210	3.6	43%	56%	44%	34%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4
Arizona State	12	30:16	18.8	31%	47%	5.8	51.8	1.7	1	5.4	2.2	0	25.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)
ASU Defense	12	42% (5)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.2 (104)	3.53 (130)	72% (63)	10% (60)	0.99 (65)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)
ASU Offense	12	43% (113)	44% (57)	31.2	111.2	3.6	17 (81)	.2 (42)	3.14 (62)	67% (107)	10% (73)	0.99 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)
ASU Defense	12	58% (129)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.3 (91)	1.4 (6)	30% (110)	33% (105)	.41 (109)	6% (67)	1.9 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)
ASU Offense	12	56% (23)	34% (123)	20.3	36.7	210.3	5.7	10.4	8 (128)	14 (107)	.1 (124)	1.5 (95)	34% (111)	25% (113)	.23 (102)	8% (120)	2.1 (41)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.07 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.07 Arizona State: -7.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.5 Arizona State: -11.9

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: -7.37 #106
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 12.85 #101
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 16.76 #123
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #27
Arizona State's 2023 Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60
Arizona State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9 #108
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #102
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.7

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 29
Arizona State 22

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 31
Arizona State 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 31
Arizona State 23

Total Points: 54

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.1

Arizona State's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Arizona State	0	Fresno State	29	Fresno State -4	Fresno State	48.0	Under
2018	12/15	Fresno State	31	Arizona State	20	Fresno State -6	Fresno State	54.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona State	0	0	0 Overs
Fresno State	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#59) FRES at (#106) ASU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	ASU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#59	#106
SP+SP+	#63	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#63	#130
OffenseOff	#44	#132
DefenseDef	#100	#120
Spec TeamsST	#74	#117
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#27

Fresno State Injury Report

Arizona State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	ASU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#120
SuccessSuc	#48	#123
ExplosiveExp	#62	#30
PPAPPA	#51	#112
PowerPwr	#53	#123
SP+SP+	#58	#94
Pts POPPO	#36	#86
HavocHav	#45	#62

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#105
Run ExplRExp	#62	#65
PPAExp	#77	#104
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#129
TackleTak	-	#99

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#6
PPAExp	#65	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#95
F7 HavocF7	#28	#60
DB HavocDB	#93	#67

Arizona State on Offense


CategoryCat	ASU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#100
SuccessSuc	#112	#60
ExplosiveExp	#90	#52
PPAPPA	#110	#66
PowerPwr	#101	#45
SP+SP+	#102	#82
Pts POPPO	#108	#20
HavocHav	#101	#77

Arizona State Run Game


CategoryCat	ASU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#68	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#62
Run ExplRExp	#71	#30
PPAExp	#42	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#84
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#62
TackleTak	-	#100

Arizona State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ASU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#64
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#93
PPAExp	#124	#90
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#79
F7 HavocF7	#73	#95
DB HavocDB	#120	#44

Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 97° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Fresno State 4.0 (48.0)
Fresno State won at Arizona State this year (29-0)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Arizona State in 2023 (29-0)

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7

ASU's OC Beau Baldwin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trenton Bourguet	151	248	61%	1486	1	4	6.0
Jaden Rashada	44	82	54%	485	4	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)	164	788	9	4.8	66
DeCarlos Brooks (Tr)	48	259	3	5.4	21
Kyson Brown	23	106	0	4.6	15
Jalin Conyers	22	92	1	4.2	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger	65	713	3	11.0	65
Jalin Conyers	30	362	0	12.1	50
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)	24	286	1	11.9	66
Xavier Guillory (Tr)	21	226	1	10.8	47

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shamari Simmons (Tr)	73	2	1	4	6
Chris Edmonds	71	0	0	2	2
Travion Brown (Tr)	53	3	1	0	1
Tate Romney (Tr)	52	4	1	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Prince Dorbah (Tr)	30	10	6	7	1
B.J. Green II	39	12	6	11	0
Clayton Smith (Tr)	21	6	5	7	1
Dashaun Mallory (Tr)	48	10	2	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Clark	50	2	0	0	9
Shamari Simmons (Tr)	73	2	1	4	6
Demetries Ford	31	2	0	0	5