Massachusetts at New Mexico State Game Matchup

Massachusetts Minutemen at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, August 26th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -7 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Massachusetts 41 - New Mexico State: 30

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 94.5° (16% Hum)
Our Line: New Mexico State -17.5 (SP+ NMSU -19)
Projected Score: UMASS: 18 - NMSU: 35 (58)
NMSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UMASS Travel: 1989 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	.01	32%	22.5	34%	2.8	150	31%	117	2.26	.2	40%	35.5	42%	38%	3.6	66.2	1.6	1.6
NMSU	.18	38%	21.6	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	36.3	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	22.5	17.8	32.4%	2.26	1.6	15	267	150	117	3.5	60%	39%	34%	31%	20%	.01
NMSU Defense	13	36.3	34.8	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	35.5	38.8	40.1%	3.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	42%	38%	20%	.2
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	30.5	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	31:55	14.6	28%	48%	7.6	66.2	1.6	1.6	6.1	1.6	1	27.5
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	60%	34%	43.3	150.3	3.5	10	.03	2.8	69%	14%	0.93
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	60%	42%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.17	70%	13%	1.14
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	39%	31%	11.3	23.1	116.9	5.1	10.3	4	14	.01	1.6	37%	19%	.1	6%	2.1
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	39%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.29	1.9	33%	28%	.28	7%	2.3
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -11.09 New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -17.7 New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.8

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 35
Massachusetts 18

Projected Total Points: 58

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	08/26	New Mexico State	30	Massachusetts	41	Massachusetts	New Mexico State -7	Massachusetts	45.5	Over
2022	10/29	Massachusetts	13	New Mexico State	23	New Mexico State	New Mexico State -1	New Mexico State	39.0	Under
2021	11/27	New Mexico State	44	Massachusetts	27	New Mexico State	New Mexico State -7	New Mexico State	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	2	2	2 Overs
Massachusetts	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#121) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Team Profile

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Massachusetts Ratings Matchup New Mexico State

Power #121

#60

Off #59

#17

Def #129

#77

Talent #108

#128

SP+ #125

#62

SP+ Off #99

#75

SP+ Def #124

#46

Rematch from Week 1
New Mexico State -7.0 (45.5)
Massachusetts won at New Mexico State this year (41-30)

Previous Matchups
Massachusetts beat New Mexico State in 2023 (41-30)
New Mexico State beat Massachusetts in 2022 (23-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 95° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: UMASS | NMSU
Depth Chart: UMASS | NMSU
Rosters: UMASS | NMSU

(#60) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.015 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60

Team Profile

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Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	107	317	3	3.0	33
Gregory DeRosiers	31	228	3	7.4	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gregory DeRosiers	21	175	4	8.3	25
Kay'Ron Adams	15	85	0	5.7	16
George Johnson	10	85	0	8.5	13
Jackson Manning	1	6	0	6.0	6

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	3
Jordan Mahoney	19	1	4
Michael Oppong	8	1	0
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	3
Jordan Mahoney	19	1	4
Michael Oppong	8	1	0
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Mahoney	19	1	4
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	3

New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	177	298	59%	2293	20	4	7.7
Eli Stowers (Tr)	1	2	50%	17	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas	213	871	7	4.1	44
Diego Pavia	193	800	8	4.1	36
Ahmonte Watkins	16	66	0	4.1	24
Jordin Parker	3	55	0	18.3	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Stowers (Tr)	49	638	5	13.0	41
Ta'ir Brooks	22	367	4	16.7	68
Jonathan Brady	34	366	3	10.8	30
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Dylan Early	48	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Denver Warren	21	3	3	1	1
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Jeremiah Vessel	10	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi McLean	44	1	0	0	4
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	34	1	0	0	3