Jacksonville State at New Mexico State

Jacksonville State at New Mexico State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (4:00 PM EST)
New Mexico State -2 (48.5) (114) Open: -2.0 | 50.0
New Mexico State 20 - Jacksonville State: 17 (Conference USA)

Gamecocks (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (11 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (30 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 27.3 MPH
NMSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -4.5 (SP+ NMSU -2)
Projected Score: JVST: 22 - NMSU: 27 (49)
NMSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
JVST Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
JVST Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Jacksonville State vs UTEP	+1.5	54.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State	-20.0	55.0	W 49 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina	+13.5	61.0	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	51.0	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Jacksonville State at Sam Houston	-6.5	36.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Wed 10/4	Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee	+2.5	52.0	W 45 - 30	O	Y
Tue 10/10	Jacksonville State vs Liberty	+7.0	59.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/17	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	+7.5	60.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/25	Jacksonville State at Florida International	-9.0	48.0	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Jacksonville State at South Carolina	+15.5	55.0	L 28 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech	-8.5	53.5	W 56 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Jacksonville State at New Mexico State	+2.0	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/16	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana	-3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#103 (.13)	42% (65)	30.2	46% (41)	3.08 (73)	237	38% (101)	171	3.77 (79)	#10 (.07)	36% (15)	21.2	33% (6)	39% (39)	3.33 (24)	43.4	1.6	1.9
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)		49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)		44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Offense	13	30.2	30.3	42.3%	3.77	1.6	22	408	237	171	4.8	61%	38%	46%	38%	16%	.13
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	19.3	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Defense	13	21.2	27	35.9%	3.33	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	33%	39%	18%	.07
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	30.3	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Jacksonville State	13	26:43	22.2	38%	52%	4.8	43.4	1.6	1.9	7	2.9	1	30.6
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Offense	13	61% (8)	46% (41)	49.8	236.7	4.8	35 (5)	.18 (51)	3.08 (73)	72% (82)	9% (54)	0.99 (73)
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Defense	13	50% (66)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (2)	2.45 (4)	71% (57)	12% (28)	0.85 (12)
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (101)	14	26.9	171	6.4	12.2	12 (113)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.6 (75)	31% (47)	30% (71)	.15 (119)	6% (90)	2 (90)
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Defense	13	48% (53)	39% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.27 (69)	1.7 (106)	35% (30)	25% (12)	.18 (10)	6% (68)	2 (63)
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -2.40 #79
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 13.61 #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 1.52 #13
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Jacksonville State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
Jacksonville State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.7 #67
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #77
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -2.40 New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -0.7 New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Jacksonville State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 27
Jacksonville State 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Jacksonville State 24
New Mexico State 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Jacksonville State 26
New Mexico State 26

Total Points: 52

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/09	Jacksonville State	54	New Mexico State	13	Jacksonville State -21	Jacksonville State	58.5	Over
2023	11/25	New Mexico State	20	Jacksonville State	17	New Mexico State -2	New Mexico State	48.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	1	1	1 Overs
Jacksonville State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#79) JVST at (#60) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JVST	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#79	#60
SP+SP+	#67	#62
Perf GradeGrade	#68	#80
OffenseOff	#68	#58
DefenseDef	#37	#107
Spec TeamsST	#124	#107
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Jacksonville State Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Jacksonville State on Offense


CategoryCat	JVST Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#107
SuccessSuc	#65	#103
ExplosiveExp	#117	#44
PPAPPA	#103	#91
PowerPwr	#93	#77
SP+SP+	#77	#46
Pts POPPO	#79	#63
HavocHav	#66	#83

Jacksonville State Run Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#59	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#96
Run ExplRExp	#73	#80
PPAExp	#51	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Jacksonville State Pass Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#20
PPAExp	#119	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#68
F7 HavocF7	#54	#70
DB HavocDB	#90	#83

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	JVST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#37
SuccessSuc	#17	#15
ExplosiveExp	#88	#80
PPAPPA	#29	#10
PowerPwr	#17	#13
SP+SP+	#75	#51
Pts POPPO	#59	#24
HavocHav	#34	#37

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#10	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#6
Run ExplRExp	#92	#12
PPAExp	#11	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#13
TackleTak	-	#73

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#106
PPAExp	#52	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#36
F7 HavocF7	#35	#28
DB HavocDB	#61	#68

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 61° - Wind: 27 mph

Rematch from Week 13
New Mexico State -2.0 (48.5)
New Mexico State won vs Jacksonville State this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat New Mexico State last year (54-13)
New Mexico State beat Jacksonville State in 2023 (20-17)

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zion Webb	111	220	51%	1437	6	8	6.5
Logan Smothers	66	117	56%	735	6	4	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Jackson	146	897	7	6.1	68
Zion Webb	132	708	7	5.4	61
Ron Wiggins	92	468	6	5.1	37
Anwar Lewis	93	452	3	4.9	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perry Carter	38	687	4	18.1	63
Quinton Lane	31	346	1	11.2	30
Sean Brown	19	294	5	15.5	58
Michael Pettway	17	196	1	11.5	37

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quae Drake	92	7	2	2	2
Kolbi Fuqua	86	6	3	6	1
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Jeremiah Harris	65	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Hardie	59	14	8	4	1
Curley Young Jr.	33	6	5	3	0
Jaylen Swain	30	7	4	4	2
Kamari Stephens	12	6	4	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derek Carter	44	2	0	0	8
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Kekoura Tarnue	53	2	1	0	4

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6