Boise State at Fresno State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (10:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -2.5 (53.5) (-150) Open: -3.0 | 55.0
Fresno State 37 - Boise State: 30 (Mountain West)

Broncos (8 - 6) (7 - 5 - 2)
Coach Andy Avalos (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 4.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Boise State -3 (SP+ BSU -7)
Projected Score: BSU: 26 - FRES: 23 (50)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 505 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boise State at Washington	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boise State vs UCF	+3.0	58.5	L 16 - 18	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Boise State vs North Dakota	-15.0	58.0	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Boise State at San Diego State	-6.5	46.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boise State at Memphis	+3.0	58.0	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Boise State vs San José State	-8.0	57.5	W 35 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Boise State at Colorado State	-7.5	60.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Boise State vs Wyoming	-4.5	48.5	W 32 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Boise State at Fresno State	+2.5	53.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	58.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Boise State at Utah State	-5.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Boise State vs Air Force	-6.5	44.5	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Boise State at UNLV	-2.5	58.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	.23	43%	29.9	46%	3.34	197	39%	189	4.07	.09	35%	24.1	39%	30%	3.38	47.4	1.2	1.5
FRES	.24	47%	25.8	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	18.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	42.9%	4.07	1.2	20	386	197	189	5	56%	44%	46%	39%	16%	.23
FRES Defense	14	18.8	15.3	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	34.6%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	39%	30%	18%	.09
FRES Offense	14	25.8	26.5	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	30:50	19.5	40%	59%	5.6	47.4	1.2	1.5	5.1	2.1	2	31.2
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	56%	46%	39.2	196.5	5	27	.2	3.34	76%	9%	0.97
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	56%	39%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.93	76%	12%	0.94
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44%	39%	16.4	27.5	189.2	6.9	11.6	20	9	.32	1.7	31%	32%	.45	7%	2.2
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	43%	30%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.12	1.9	35%	19%	.09	6%	2.3
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.57 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 21.76 #28
Boise State's Defense Rating: 8.84 #58
2023 Talent Rating: 579.88 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Boise State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 4.90
Boise State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.57 Fresno State: 2.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 7.4 Fresno State: 0.5

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 555.30 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 26
Fresno State 23

Projected Total Points: 50

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Boise State	7	Fresno State	30	Boise State -17.5	Fresno State	47.5	Under
2023	11/04	Fresno State	37	Boise State	30	Fresno State -2.5	Fresno State	53.5	Over
2022	10/08	Boise State	40	Fresno State	20	Boise State -9	Boise State	45.0	Over
2022	12/03	Boise State	16	Fresno State	28	Boise State -3	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2021	11/06	Fresno State	14	Boise State	40	Fresno State -4	Boise State	61.5	Under
2018	11/09	Boise State	24	Fresno State	17	Fresno State -2.5	Boise State	56.0	Under
2018	12/01	Boise State	16	Fresno State	19	Boise State -2	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2017	12/02	Boise State	17	Fresno State	14	Boise State -9.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2017	11/25	Fresno State	28	Boise State	17	Boise State -6.5	Fresno State	49.0	Under
2014	10/17	Boise State	37	Fresno State	27	Boise State -16	Fresno State	0
2014	12/06	Boise State	28	Fresno State	14	Boise State -17	Fresno State	0
2013	09/20	Fresno State	41	Boise State	40	Fresno State -3	Boise State	0
2012	10/13	Boise State	20	Fresno State	10
2011	10/07	Fresno State	7	Boise State	57
2010	11/19	Boise State	51	Fresno State	0
2009	09/18	Fresno State	34	Boise State	51
2008	11/28	Boise State	61	Fresno State	10
2007	10/26	Fresno State	21	Boise State	34
2006	11/01	Boise State	45	Fresno State	21
2005	11/10	Fresno State	27	Boise State	7
2004	10/23	Boise State	33	Fresno State	16
2003	11/21	Fresno State	17	Boise State	31
2002	10/18	Boise State	67	Fresno State	21
2001	10/19	Fresno State	30	Boise State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	7	8	2 Overs
Boise State	17	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	4 - 8	2 - 8	2 - 0
Road Teams	9 - 15	8 - 4	0 - 2	8 - 2

(#37) BSU at (#59) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#59
SP+SP+	#41	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#63
OffenseOff	#26	#44
DefenseDef	#111	#100
Spec TeamsST	#64	#74
TalentTal	#72	#78
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

Boise State Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#100
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#28	#45
SP+SP+	#29	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#3	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#100

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#79
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#111
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#53	#58
SP+SP+	#58	#70
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#130

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#109
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Fresno State -2.5 (53.5)
Fresno State won vs Boise State this year (37-30)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Boise State last year (30-7)
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2023 (37-30)

BSU's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	121	212	57%	1752	11	9	8.3
Maddux Madsen	81	132	61%	1191	9	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	221	1351	14	6.1	68
George Holani	133	744	7	5.6	75
Taylen Green	78	436	9	5.6	70
Jambres Dubar	62	335	2	5.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	47	873	5	18.6	83
Ashton Jeanty	43	569	5	13.2	75
Billy Bowens	28	383	1	13.7	52
Prince Strachan	12	274	2	22.8	74

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Seyi Oladipo	60	9	2	1	4
Rodney Robinson	54	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmed Hassanein	50	17	13	7	0
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5
Braxton Fely	15	5	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Clark	52	2	0	1	8
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7