New Mexico State at Liberty - 2023 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo   New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames  Liberty logo
Friday, December 1st 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Liberty -10.5 (54.0) (-375)  Open: -10.5 | 54.0
Liberty 49 - New Mexico State: 35  (Conference USA Championship)

 
Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LIB is playing their 9th straight game
NMSU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -11  (SP+ LIB -11)
Projected Score: NMSU: 22 - LIB: 33 (55)
LIB Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind
Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.045.5L 30 - 41ON
Sat 9/2 New Mexico State vs Western Illinois-21.055.0W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 New Mexico State at Liberty+9.054.5L 17 - 33UN
Sat 9/16 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2.552.0W 27 - 17UY
Sat 9/23 New Mexico State at Hawai'i+4.054.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4 New Mexico State vs Florida International-6.549.5W 34 - 17OY
Wed 10/11 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-4.543.0W 27 - 13UY
Wed 10/18 New Mexico State at UTEP-3.048.5W 28 - 7UY
Tue 10/24 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+3.055.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.055.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+4.555.5W 38 - 29OY
Sat 11/18 New Mexico State at Auburn+25.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State-2.048.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.554.0L 35 - 49ON
Sat 12/16 New Mexico State vs Fresno State-3.052.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.548.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.054.5W 33 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Liberty at Buffalo-2.554.0W 55 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Liberty at Florida International-10.054.0W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5 Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.046.5W 21 - 16UN
Tue 10/10 Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.059.5W 31 - 13UY
Tue 10/17 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.056.5W 42 - 35ON
Tue 10/24 Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.061.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.558.0W 56 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.558.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.564.5W 49 - 25ON
Sat 11/25 Liberty at UTEP-18.054.5W 42 - 28ON
Fri 12/1 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.554.0W 49 - 35OY
Mon 1/1 Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU.1838%21.640%2.8816236%1694.18.1643%27.647%40%3.8657.41.41.2
LIB.1541%25.646%3.2217238%2173.61.136%26.538%36%3.5753.52.12.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1321.62037.7%4.181.4173311621694.656%43%40%36%19%.18
LIB Defense1326.527.336.2%3.572.2 - - - - - 51%47%38%36%20%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1327.637.543%3.861.2 - - - - - 53%46%47%40%17%.16
LIB Offense1325.631.541.4%3.612.1203891722174.650%48%46%38%19%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1328:5116.639%73%6.557.41.41.25.52.1128.7
Liberty1328:3720.437%48%6.253.52.12.28.43.2131.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1356%40%34.9161.64.624.132.8884%11%1.08
LIB Defense1351%38% - - - - .082.5975%14%1.06
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1353%47% - - - - .173.1178%11%0.9
LIB Offense1350%46%37.8172.44.624.173.2268%13%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1343%36%12.223.5169.27.213.81813.251.935%30%.328%2
LIB Defense1347%36% - - - - - - 14.191.736%27%.267%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1346%40% - - - - - - 7.211.530%30%.376%2
LIB Offense1348%38%17.630.4216.57.112.32115.221.631%26%.236%2.2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03  #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21  #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44  #77
2023 Talent Rating: 378.99  #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0  #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03   Liberty: 11.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0   Liberty: 11.8




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 11.735  #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14  #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34  #42
2023 Talent Rating: 330.29  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8  #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4  #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 33
New Mexico State 22

Projected Total Points: 55
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/14Liberty30New Mexico State27Liberty -10.5New Mexico State48.5Over
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30Liberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17Liberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35Liberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49Liberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20Liberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28Liberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41Liberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21Liberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty745 Overs
New Mexico State244 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 35 - 33 - 22 - 1
Road Teams3 - 63 - 51 - 22 - 3

(#60) NMSU at (#30) LIB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSULIB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #60 #30
SP+SP+ #62 #21
Perf GradeGrade #80 #21
OffenseOff #58 #12
DefenseDef #107 #50
Spec TeamsST #107 #38
TalentTal #115 #127
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
New Mexico State on Offense
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #50
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #17 #42
SP+SP+ #75 #51
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
New Mexico State Run Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #10 #71
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #36
New Mexico State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #47 #40
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #76
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Liberty on Offense
CategoryCatLIB OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #12 #107
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #3 #77
SP+SP+ #9 #46
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Liberty Run Game
CategoryCat
LIB OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #4 #102
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #119
Liberty Pass Game
CategoryCatLIB OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #107
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #95 #68
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Liberty -10.5 (54.0)
Liberty won vs New Mexico State this year (49-35)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-27)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2024 (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)

  
NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia22136660%29732698.1
Blaze Berlowitz101953%134117.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia17692375.244
Star Thomas11265345.840
Ahmonte Watkins5957229.780
Jamoni Jones8734333.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Brady38624416.480
Trent Hudson345451016.078
Eli Stowers (Tr)35366210.532
Chris Bellamy18282115.752

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Myles Rowser (Tr)700002
Jordan Vincent (Tr)653203
Jeremiah Dervil621014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sterling Webb306510
Buddha Peleti347540
Izaiah Reed234450
Gabe Peterson559450
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Seldon533007
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Keonte Glinton (Tr)180016

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter17729061%28763269.9
Johnathan Bennett1617%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)2211401166.360
Kaidon Salter1631089126.752
Billy Lucas11459765.243
Aaron Bedgood5855239.549
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels5510671019.475
Treon Sibley23467420.368
Noah Frith17323319.055
Elijah Smoot11221220.142

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyren Dupree1168362
Brandon Bishop583003
Joseph Carter552001
Quinton Reese502001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendy Charles265320
CJ Bazile Jr.48113110
Christopher Boti144310
Tyren Dupree1168362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Singleton3600012
Preston Hodge443007
Brylan Green352107