New Mexico State at Liberty - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames

Friday, December 1st 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Liberty -10.5 (54.0) (-375) Open: -10.5 | 54.0
Liberty 49 - New Mexico State: 35 (Conference USA Championship)

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB is playing their 9th straight game
NMSU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -11 (SP+ LIB -11)
Projected Score: NMSU: 23 - LIB: 34 (56)
LIB Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 24 (40 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Liberty's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0	54.5	W 33 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5	54.0	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0	54.0	W 38 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0	46.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0	59.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0	56.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0	61.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5	58.0	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5	64.5	W 49 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0	54.5	W 42 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	54.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9
LIB	#3 (.43)	54% (3)	38.3	56% (3)	3.77 (2)	281	51% (8)	197	4.54 (20)	#59 (.17)	42% (73)	24.3	47% (111)	40% (49)	3.63 (54)	59	1.1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)		54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)		39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	27.5	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28
LIB Defense	14	24.3	24	42.3%	3.63	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	47%	40%	18%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	23.6	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22
LIB Offense	14	38.3	40.3	54.2%	4.54	1.1	24	478	281	197	6.1	68%	32%	56%	51%	7%	.43

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2
Liberty	14	31:18	23.6	50%	55%	5.9	59	1.1	1.7	4.9	1.7	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)
LIB Defense	14	43% (9)	47% (111)	-	-	-	-	.19 (94)	3.14 (77)	75% (86)	10% (84)	0.97 (49)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)
LIB Offense	14	68% (4)	56% (3)	45.9	281.3	6.1	39 (2)	.35 (3)	3.77 (2)	85% (4)	5% (1)	0.98 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)
LIB Defense	14	55% (125)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.23 (48)	1.6 (84)	31% (77)	29% (48)	.17 (9)	9% (6)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)
LIB Offense	14	32% (130)	51% (8)	11.6	19.9	196.9	9.9	16.9	31 (14)	5 (6)	.65 (2)	1.9 (9)	23% (2)	38% (13)	.59 (8)	2% (2)	2.3 (18)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 Liberty: 11.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 Liberty: 11.8

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 34
New Mexico State 23

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Liberty 32
New Mexico State 26

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 32
New Mexico State 26

Total Points: 58

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 38.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	Liberty	30	New Mexico State	27	Liberty -10.5	New Mexico State	48.5	Over
2024	09/07	New Mexico State	24	Liberty	30	Liberty -22.5	New Mexico State	54.5	Under
2023	09/09	Liberty	33	New Mexico State	17	Liberty -9	Liberty	54.5	Under
2023	12/01	Liberty	49	New Mexico State	35	Liberty -10.5	Liberty	54.0	Over
2022	11/26	Liberty	14	New Mexico State	49	Liberty -24.0	New Mexico State	51.0	Over
2019	10/05	New Mexico State	13	Liberty	20	Liberty -4.5	Liberty	62.5	Under
2019	11/30	Liberty	49	New Mexico State	28	Liberty -14.5	Liberty	68.0	Over
2018	10/06	New Mexico State	49	Liberty	41	Liberty -3	New Mexico State	64.0	Over
2018	11/24	Liberty	28	New Mexico State	21	Liberty -7	Push	72.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	7	4	5 Overs
New Mexico State	2	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	5 - 3	3 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 6	3 - 5	1 - 2	2 - 3

(#60) NMSU at (#30) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#30
SP+SP+	#62	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#21
OffenseOff	#58	#12
DefenseDef	#107	#50
Spec TeamsST	#107	#38
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico State Injury Report

Liberty Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#50
SuccessSuc	#17	#73
ExplosiveExp	#88	#85
PPAPPA	#29	#59
PowerPwr	#17	#42
SP+SP+	#75	#51
Pts POPPO	#59	#54
HavocHav	#34	#30

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#10	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#111
Run ExplRExp	#92	#49
PPAExp	#11	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#77
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#59
TackleTak	-	#36

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#84
PPAExp	#52	#48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#76
F7 HavocF7	#35	#84
DB HavocDB	#61	#6

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#107
SuccessSuc	#3	#103
ExplosiveExp	#94	#44
PPAPPA	#3	#91
PowerPwr	#3	#77
SP+SP+	#9	#46
Pts POPPO	#20	#63
HavocHav	#1	#83

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#96
Run ExplRExp	#81	#80
PPAExp	#3	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#12	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#8	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#9	#20
PPAExp	#2	#53
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#68
F7 HavocF7	#1	#70
DB HavocDB	#2	#83

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 45°Rain: 0.008

Rematch from Week 14
Liberty -10.5 (54.0)
Liberty won vs New Mexico State this year (49-35)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)
New Mexico State beat Liberty in 2022 (49-14)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	177	290	61%	2876	32	6	9.9
Johnathan Bennett	1	6	17%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)	221	1401	16	6.3	60
Kaidon Salter	163	1089	12	6.7	52
Billy Lucas	114	597	6	5.2	43
Aaron Bedgood	58	552	3	9.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
C.J. Daniels	55	1067	10	19.4	75
Treon Sibley	23	467	4	20.3	68
Noah Frith	17	323	3	19.0	55
Elijah Smoot	11	221	2	20.1	42

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2
Brandon Bishop	58	3	0	0	3
Joseph Carter	55	2	0	0	1
Quinton Reese	50	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendy Charles	26	5	3	2	0
CJ Bazile Jr.	48	11	3	11	0
Christopher Boti	14	4	3	1	0
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kobe Singleton	36	0	0	12
Preston Hodge	44	3	0	7
Brylan Green	35	2	1	7