Florida International at New Mexico State

Florida International at New Mexico State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Florida International Golden Panthers at New Mexico State Aggies

Wednesday, October 4th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -6.5 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 34 - Florida International: 17 (Conference USA)

Golden Panthers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike MacIntyre (7 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (20 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FIU coming off BYE
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico State -18 (SP+ NMSU -22)
Projected Score: FIU: 14 - NMSU: 32 (46)
NMSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
FIU Travel: 1651 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FIU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida International's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Florida International at Louisiana Tech	+12.0	57.5	L 17 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Florida International vs Maine	-15.0	46.0	W 14 - 12	U	N
Sat 9/9	Florida International vs North Texas	+10.5	51.5	W 46 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida International at UConn	+7.0	43.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Florida International vs Liberty	+10.0	54.0	L 6 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	Florida International at New Mexico State	+6.5	49.5	L 17 - 34	O	N
Wed 10/11	Florida International vs UTEP	+1.5	44.0	L 14 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Florida International at Sam Houston	+6.0	42.0	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Wed 10/25	Florida International vs Jacksonville State	+9.0	48.0	L 16 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Florida International at Middle Tennessee	+10.5	50.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida International at Arkansas	+27.5	49.5	L 20 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Florida International vs Western Kentucky	+11.5	54.0	L 28 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida International's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FIU	#117 (.09)	37% (120)	20.1	40% (104)	2.67 (126)	90	35% (119)	230	3.21 (113)	#84 (.2)	40% (46)	31.8	40% (39)	42% (73)	3.34 (26)	50.6	1.8	1
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FIU	#101 (.13)	39% (111)		37% (125)	2.48 (130)	122	42% (64)	229	4.44 (21)	#37 (.12)	41% (62)		44% (81)	37% (30)	3.49 (39)	47.4	1.6	1.3
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FIU Offense	12	20.1	19.5	36.8%	3.21	1.8	15	320	90	230	2.9	44%	55%	40%	35%	20%	.09
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	19.3	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FIU Defense	12	31.8	30.7	40.4%	3.34	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	42%	12%	.2
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	30.3	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida International	12	27:16	15.3	28%	48%	5.8	50.6	1.8	1	5.1	1	1	25.8
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FIU Offense	12	44% (106)	40% (104)	31.7	90.3	2.9	17 (81)	.05 (119)	2.67 (126)	69% (99)	13% (125)	1.05 (40)
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FIU Defense	12	51% (90)	40% (39)	-	-	-	-	.1 (39)	3.08 (64)	90% (131)	9% (91)	1.03 (89)
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FIU Offense	12	55% (28)	35% (119)	18.3	31.9	230	7.2	12.6	12 (113)	12 (85)	.17 (102)	1.6 (69)	35% (115)	24% (121)	.24 (95)	6% (78)	2 (86)
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FIU Defense	12	48% (45)	42% (73)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.36 (110)	1.8 (119)	35% (31)	29% (47)	.29 (56)	3% (133)	2.2 (119)
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

Florida International's Power Ratings
Florida International's Power Rating: -8.87 #114
Florida International's Offense Rating: 11.13 #117
Florida International's Defense Rating: 10.84 #84
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Florida International's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Florida International's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.9 #127
Florida International's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Florida International's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #119

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida International: -8.87 New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida International: -20.9 New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida International Scoring
Offense: 20.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Florida International's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 32
Florida International 14

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida International 18
New Mexico State 15

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 30
Florida International 21

Total Points: 51

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/29	Florida International	34	New Mexico State	13	Florida International -7	Florida International	43.5	Over
2023	10/04	New Mexico State	34	Florida International	17	New Mexico State -6.5	New Mexico State	49.5	Over
2022	10/01	New Mexico State	7	Florida International	21	New Mexico State -15	Florida International	54.0	Under
2004	10/30	New Mexico State	56	Florida International	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	2	1	2 Overs
Florida International	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#114) FIU at (#60) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FIU	NMSU
Power RatePwr	#114	#60
SP+SP+	#127	#62
Perf GradeGrade	#122	#80
OffenseOff	#118	#58
DefenseDef	#103	#107
Spec TeamsST	#84	#107
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Florida International Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Florida International on Offense


CategoryCat	FIU Off	NMSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	#107
SuccessSuc	#120	#103
ExplosiveExp	#46	#44
PPAPPA	#117	#91
PowerPwr	#117	#77
SP+SP+	#120	#46
Pts POPPO	#113	#63
HavocHav	#118	#83

Florida International Run Game


CategoryCat	FIU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#119	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#96
Run ExplRExp	#40	#80
PPAExp	#119	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#126	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Florida International Pass Game


CategoryCat	FIU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#119	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#20
PPAExp	#102	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#68
F7 HavocF7	#125	#70
DB HavocDB	#78	#83

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FIU Def
Perf GradePerf	#58	#103
SuccessSuc	#17	#46
ExplosiveExp	#88	#114
PPAPPA	#29	#84
PowerPwr	#17	#84
SP+SP+	#75	#119
Pts POPPO	#59	#26
HavocHav	#34	#129

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FIU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#39
Run ExplRExp	#92	#89
PPAExp	#11	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#57
TackleTak	-	#103

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FIU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#73
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#119
PPAExp	#52	#110
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#99
F7 HavocF7	#35	#91
DB HavocDB	#61	#133

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

FIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 6
New Mexico State -6.5 (49.5)
New Mexico State won vs Florida International this year (34-17)

Previous Matchups
Florida International beat New Mexico State last year (34-13)
New Mexico State beat Florida International in 2023 (34-17)
Florida International beat New Mexico State in 2022 (21-7)

FIU's OC David Yost (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keyone Jenkins	194	332	58%	2422	11	11	7.3
Grayson James	19	37	51%	218	1	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	125	566	4	4.5	67
Kejon Owens	80	453	5	5.7	47
Keyone Jenkins	117	50	6	0.4	23
Antonio Patterson	14	33	1	2.4	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kris Mitchell	64	1118	7	17.5	80
Dean Patterson	28	423	1	15.1	40
Eric Rivers (Tr)	32	343	2	10.7	48
Jalen Bracey	31	316	1	10.2	45

View Florida International's Full Roster

FIU's DC Jovan Dewitt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan Manuel	98	12	0	1	2
Reggie Peterson	89	7	3	1	0
D'Verick Daniel	57	2	0	0	1
Jamal Potts	53	5	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alex Nobles	35	8	3	5	0
Reggie Peterson	89	7	3	1	0
Jeramy Passmore	23	4	2	2	0
Jack Daly	20	3	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hezekiah Masses	33	0	0	0	4
Donovan Manuel	98	12	0	1	2
Jamal Potts	53	5	1	0	2

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6