Fresno State at San Diego State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (10:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -5.5 (47.0) (-205) Open: -5.5 | 46.0
San Diego State 33 - Fresno State: 18 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
FRES is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -7 (SP+ FRES -11)
Projected Score: FRES: 28 - SDSU: 21 (51)
FRES Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FRES Travel: 316 miles

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	.24	47%	26.1	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	24.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6
SDSU	.14	39%	21.3	38%	2.81	143	41%	181	2.92	.06	38%	29.6	36%	40%	3.15	59.4	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	14	26.1	21.2	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24
SDSU Defense	13	29.6	23.3	37.5%	3.15	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	36%	40%	19%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	14	24.8	31.2	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15
SDSU Offense	13	21.3	22.3	38.8%	2.92	1.8	16	324	143	181	4	53%	46%	38%	41%	20%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7
San Diego State	13	30:56	15.8	29%	75%	7.4	59.4	1.8	1.9	6.5	2.8	4	30.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86
SDSU Defense	13	44%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.84	62%	13%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04
SDSU Offense	13	53%	38%	36.2	143.2	4	11	.08	2.81	58%	14%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8
SDSU Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.19	1.5	34%	28%	.18	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9
SDSU Offense	13	46%	41%	14.2	26.3	180.6	6.9	12.7	15	14	.31	1.6	34%	31%	.37	6%	2.2

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.07 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.07 San Diego State: -6.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.5 San Diego State: -10.5

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -6.495 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 600.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 28
San Diego State 21

Projected Total Points: 51

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/25	San Diego State	33	Fresno State	18	San Diego State	Fresno State -5.5	San Diego State	47.0	Over
2022	10/29	Fresno State	32	San Diego State	28	Fresno State	Fresno State -10	San Diego State	43.5	Over
2021	10/30	San Diego State	20	Fresno State	30	Fresno State	Fresno State -2	Fresno State	43.5	Over
2019	11/15	San Diego State	17	Fresno State	7	San Diego State	San Diego State -1	San Diego State	43.0	Under
2018	11/17	Fresno State	23	San Diego State	14	Fresno State	Fresno State -13	San Diego State	42.5	Under
2017	10/21	San Diego State	3	Fresno State	27	Fresno State	San Diego State -6.5	Fresno State	49.5	Under
2016	10/14	Fresno State	3	San Diego State	17	San Diego State	San Diego State -17.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2015	10/03	San Diego State	21	Fresno State	7	San Diego State	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	51.5	Under
2014	10/03	Fresno State	24	San Diego State	13	Fresno State	San Diego State -2	Fresno State	0
2013	10/26	San Diego State	28	Fresno State	35	Fresno State	Fresno State -9.5	San Diego State	0
2012	09/29	Fresno State	52	San Diego State	40	Fresno State
2011	12/03	San Diego State	35	Fresno State	28	San Diego State
2002	08/29	Fresno State	16	San Diego State	14	Fresno State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	5	6	3 Overs
Fresno State	8	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	6 - 4	2 - 3	4 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 9	4 - 6	1 - 4	3 - 2

(#59) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.07 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50

Team Profile

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Fresno State Ratings Matchup San Diego State

Power #59

#104

Off #53

#106

Def #45

#86

Talent #89

#73

SP+ #63

#107

SP+ Off #58

#110

SP+ Def #82

#91

Rematch from Week 13
Fresno State 5.5 (47.0)
San Diego State won vs Fresno State this year (33-18)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Fresno State in 2023 (33-18)
Fresno State beat San Diego State in 2022 (32-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 57°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | SDSU
Depth Chart: FRES | SDSU
Rosters: FRES | SDSU

(#104) San Diego State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.495 #104
Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91
Talent Rating: 600.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00

Team Profile

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Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife	157	246	64%	1781	13	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Logan Fife	52	120	5	2.3	22
Mac Dalena	5	39	0	7.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Tre Watson	21	280	1	13.3	33
Artis Cole	12	152	1	12.7	30
Jake Boust	4	30	0	7.5	10

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura (Tr)	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark (Tr)	56	3	2	2	4
Devo Bridges	49	7	2	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark (Tr)	56	3	2	2	4
Devo Bridges	49	7	2	6	1
Kemari Bailey	5	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Dean Clark (Tr)	56	3	2	2	4
Tuasivi Nomura (Tr)	102	7	0	0	3

San Diego State's OC Ryan Lindley

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raphael Williams (Tr)	1	-3	0	-3.0	0
Josh Nicholson	1	-10	0	-10.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raphael Williams (Tr)	36	419	6	11.6	35
Mark Redman	23	251	3	10.9	32
Mekhi Shaw	15	160	2	10.7	30
Cameron Harpole	1	17	0	17.0	17

View San Diego State's Full Roster

San Diego State's DC Kurt Mattix

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger	82	2	0	5
Marcus Ratcliffe	48	4	1	0
J.D. Coffey III	42	0	0	1
Zyrus Fiaseu	34	3	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cooper McDonald	25	5	3	2	1
Noah Avinger	82	2	0	0	5
Marcus Ratcliffe	48	4	0	1	0
J.D. Coffey III	42	0	0	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Noah Avinger	82	2	5
Dezjhon Malone	27	2	3
Dallas Branch	23	0	3