New Mexico State at New Mexico - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -2.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 27 - New Mexico: 17

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
UNM 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: New Mexico State -9 (SP+ NMSU -18)
Projected Score: NMSU: 32 - UNM: 23 (55)
UNM Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 193 miles

Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 35 (32 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+37.5	48.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/9	New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech	-16.0	51.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-2.5	52.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/23	New Mexico at Massachusetts	+3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico at Wyoming	+14.5	40.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	New Mexico vs San José State	+6.5	55.0	L 24 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	New Mexico vs Hawai'i	+1.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	New Mexico at Nevada	-1.0	50.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico vs UNLV	+10.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	58.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	New Mexico at Fresno State	+22.5	58.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	New Mexico vs Utah State	+4.5	58.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	27.3	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	35.1	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	27.5	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28
UNM Defense	12	35.1	35	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	23.6	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22
UNM Offense	12	27.3	32.3	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 New Mexico: -8.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 New Mexico: -16.8

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -8.65 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 32
New Mexico 23

Total Points: 55

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 35.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 35

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	New Mexico State	40	New Mexico	50	New Mexico	New Mexico -9.5	New Mexico	54.0	Over
2023	09/16	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico State	New Mexico -2.5	New Mexico State	52.0	Under
2022	10/15	New Mexico State	21	New Mexico	9	New Mexico State	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	38.5	Under
2021	09/11	New Mexico	34	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico	New Mexico -19.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over
2019	09/21	New Mexico	55	New Mexico State	52	New Mexico	New Mexico -4	New Mexico State	69.0	Over
2018	09/15	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico	42	New Mexico	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	60.5	Over
2017	09/09	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	30	New Mexico State	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	69.5	Under
2016	09/10	New Mexico State	32	New Mexico	31	New Mexico State	New Mexico -11.5	New Mexico State	62.0	Over
2015	10/03	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	29	New Mexico	New Mexico -14	New Mexico State	65.5	Over
2014	09/20	New Mexico State	35	New Mexico	38	New Mexico	New Mexico -3	NA	0
2013	10/05	New Mexico	66	New Mexico State	17	New Mexico	New Mexico -7	New Mexico	0
2012	09/22	New Mexico State	14	New Mexico	27	New Mexico
2011	10/01	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	42	New Mexico State
2010	10/09	New Mexico State	16	New Mexico	14	New Mexico State
2009	09/26	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	20	New Mexico State
2008	09/27	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	35	New Mexico
2007	09/08	New Mexico	44	New Mexico State	34	New Mexico
2006	09/09	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico	34	New Mexico
2005	09/17	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	21	New Mexico
2004	09/25	New Mexico State	3	New Mexico	38	New Mexico
2003	09/27	New Mexico	24	New Mexico State	17	New Mexico
2002	09/21	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	13	New Mexico State
2001	11/24	New Mexico	53	New Mexico State	0	New Mexico
2000	09/15	New Mexico State	13	New Mexico	16	New Mexico

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	16	3	6 Overs
New Mexico State	8	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 12	3 - 7	1 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 12	7 - 3	2 - 2	5 - 1

(#60) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: 0.03 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60

New Mexico State has lost 1 straight
New Mexico State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 3 (6 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State has Really Good Running Game (#136)
New Mexico State offense is efficent (#128)
New Mexico State has a top Offensive Line (#136)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State has a bad defense (#22)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	UNM	NMSU
OverallOver	#100	#65
OffenseOff	#27	#54
DefenseDef	#109	#82
Special TeamsST	#109	#85
PassingPass	#65	#36
RushingRush	#16	#9
Run BlockRBLK	#10	#73
Pass BlockPBLK	#26	#93
Route RunningWR Rt	#39	#60
TacklingTkl	#117	#101
Run DefenseR Def	#117	#87
Pass Rush DefPRush	#101	#52
Coverage DefCov	#108	#87

Rematch from Week 3
New Mexico -2.5 (52.0)
New Mexico State won at New Mexico this year (27-17)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat New Mexico State last year (50-40)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2023 (27-17)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2022 (21-9)

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | UNM
Depth Chart: NMSU | UNM
Rosters: NMSU | UNM

(#94) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -8.65 #94
Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10

New Mexico has won 1 straight
New Mexico has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico offense is efficent (#108)
New Mexico Secondary is very good (#131)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
New Mexico Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
New Mexico Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
New Mexico does not Sack the QB (#122)
New Mexico has a bad defense (#98)
New Mexico has a bad defensive line (#82)
New Mexico has a bad red zone defense (#43)

New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6

New Mexico's OC Bryant Vincent

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)	157	282	56%	2074	11	9	7.4
Devon Dampier	40	64	63%	525	6	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacory Merritt	189	1185	17	6.3	55
Andrew Henry (Tr)	52	350	3	6.7	64
Devon Dampier	59	333	4	5.6	37
Sherod White	37	155	1	4.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)	30	551	2	18.4	59
Jeremiah Hixon	39	482	5	12.4	59
D.J. Washington	29	336	3	11.6	35
Andrew Erickson	20	263	1	13.2	52

View New Mexico's Full Roster

New Mexico's DC Troy Reffett

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Marenco	64	4	1	2	3
Christian Ellis	58	0	0	0	4
Dereck Moore	51	0	0	0	0
Syaire Riley	48	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyler Drake	25	6	4	1	0
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)	27	4	2	1	0
Hunter Rapolla	19	4	2	1	1
Mihalis Santorineos	20	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Zach Morris	33	2	7
Donte Martin	23	2	6
Christian Ellis	58	0	4