UNLV at Fresno State - 2023 Matchup Preview

UNLV Rebels at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -10.5 (56.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Fresno State 31 - UNLV: 24 (Mountain West)

Rebels (9 - 5) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 6.3 (#48)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Fresno State -2.5 (SP+ UNLV -1.5)
Projected Score: UNLV: 26 - FRES: 29 (55)
FRES Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
UNLV Travel: 260 miles

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNLV Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UNLV's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UNLV vs Bryant	-16.5	66.0	W 44 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UNLV at Michigan	+38.0	57.5	L 7 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/16	UNLV vs Vanderbilt	+4.5	56.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UNLV at UTEP	+1.0	49.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	UNLV vs Hawai'i	-10.5	58.5	W 44 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	UNLV at Nevada	-7.5	51.5	W 45 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	UNLV vs Colorado State	-6.5	60.0	W 25 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/28	UNLV at Fresno State	+10.5	56.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/4	UNLV at New Mexico	-10.0	61.0	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/10	UNLV vs Wyoming	-2.5	48.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UNLV at Air Force	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	UNLV vs San José State	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/2	UNLV vs Boise State	+2.5	58.0	L 20 - 44	O	N
Tue 12/26	UNLV vs Kansas	+8.0	64.5	L 36 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	.18	40%	34.1	45%	3.34	137	37%	215	3.57	.2	46%	28	51%	41%	3.62	57.3	1.3	2.1
FRES	.24	47%	25.8	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	18.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Offense	12	34.1	34.7	40.4%	3.57	1.3	18	352	137	215	4.1	47%	51%	45%	37%	20%	.18
FRES Defense	14	18.8	15.3	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Defense	12	28	29.3	46%	3.62	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	51%	41%	16%	.2
FRES Offense	14	25.8	26.5	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UNLV	12	28:49	17.6	33%	53%	5.8	57.3	1.3	2.1	4.6	2.3	2	27.1
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense	12	47%	45%	33.6	137.3	4.1	18	.27	3.34	84%	14%	1.07
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense	12	53%	51%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.55	77%	10%	0.8
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense	12	51%	37%	18.9	30.1	215	7.2	11.4	15	7	.17	1.5	33%	26%	.25	6%	2.1
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense	12	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.33	1.7	28%	34%	.37	6%	2.2
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -1.91 #76
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.43 #52
UNLV's Defense Rating: 10.09 #73
2023 Talent Rating: 354.46 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
UNLV's 2023 Expected Record: 7.70 - 6.30
UNLV's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #60
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #98

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -1.91 Fresno State: 2.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 2.0 Fresno State: 0.5

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 555.30 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 29
UNLV 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	UNLV	59	Fresno State	14	UNLV -2.5	UNLV	51.0	Over
2023	10/28	Fresno State	31	UNLV	24	Fresno State -10.5	UNLV	56.0	Under
2022	11/11	UNLV	30	Fresno State	37	Fresno State -9	UNLV	61.5	Over
2021	09/24	Fresno State	38	UNLV	30	Fresno State -30	UNLV	59.0	Over
2020	11/07	UNLV	27	Fresno State	40	Fresno State -11	Fresno State	57.5	Over
2019	10/18	Fresno State	56	UNLV	27	Fresno State -14.5	Fresno State	52.0	Over
2018	11/03	UNLV	3	Fresno State	48	Fresno State -27	Fresno State	58.5	Under
2017	10/28	Fresno State	16	UNLV	26	Fresno State -21.5	UNLV	59.0	Under
2016	10/01	UNLV	45	Fresno State	20	UNLV -11.5	UNLV	56.5	Over
2015	10/16	Fresno State	31	UNLV	28	UNLV -5.5	Fresno State	49.0	Over
2014	10/10	UNLV	30	Fresno State	27	Fresno State -9	UNLV	0
2013	10/19	Fresno State	38	UNLV	14	Fresno State -21	Fresno State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	8	5	7 Overs
UNLV	4	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 8	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#76) UNLV at (#59) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNLV	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#76	#59
SP+SP+	#60	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#78	#63
OffenseOff	#60	#44
DefenseDef	#110	#100
Spec TeamsST	#99	#74
TalentTal	#119	#78
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

UNLV Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

UNLV on Offense


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#100
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#52	#45
SP+SP+	#35	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UNLV Run Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#72	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#100

UNLV Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#98	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#43	#79
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNLV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#110
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#53	#73
SP+SP+	#58	#98
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#84	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#61

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Fresno State -10.5 (56.0)
Fresno State won vs UNLV this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Fresno State in 2024 (59-14)
Fresno State beat UNLV in 2023 (31-24)

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	224	353	64%	3085	17	10	8.7
Doug Brumfield	26	50	52%	252	0	2	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vincent Davis (Tr)	145	760	7	5.2	69
Jai'Den Thomas	108	503	12	4.7	46
Donavyn Lester	95	455	9	4.8	66
Jayden Maiava	73	277	3	3.8	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	88	1483	8	16.9	82
Jacob De Jesus	60	606	2	10.1	48
Senika McKie	23	342	1	14.9	50
Kaleo Ballungay	18	314	2	17.4	84

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard (Tr)	97	9	3	2	2
Marsel McDuffie	78	2	1	0	2
Johnathan Baldwin	65	3	1	0	4
Fred Thompkins	54	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alex Whitmore	30	6	3	3	0
Jackson Woodard (Tr)	97	9	3	2	2
Cooper Webb	26	4	2	1	0
Cameron Oliver	50	6	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ricky Johnson	33	3	0	7
Johnathan Baldwin	65	3	1	4
Jett Elad	52	3	0	4

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7