UNLV at Fresno State - 2023 Matchup Preview
UNLV logo UNLV Rebels at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -10.5 (56.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Fresno State 31 - UNLV: 24  (Mountain West)

 
Rebels (9 - 5) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 34 - 29 (35 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 6.3 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Fresno State -2.5   (SP+ UNLV -1.5)

Projected Score: UNLV: 28 - FRES: 30 (58)
FRES Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
UNLV Travel: 260 miles
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UNLV's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 UNLV vs Bryant-16.566.0W 44 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 UNLV at Michigan+38.057.5L 7 - 35UY
Sat 9/16 UNLV vs Vanderbilt+4.556.5W 40 - 37OY
Sat 9/23 UNLV at UTEP+1.049.5W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 UNLV vs Hawai'i-10.558.5W 44 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 UNLV at Nevada-7.551.5W 45 - 27OY
Sat 10/21 UNLV vs Colorado State-6.560.0W 25 - 23UN
Sat 10/28 UNLV at Fresno State+10.556.0L 24 - 31UY
Sat 11/4 UNLV at New Mexico-10.061.0W 56 - 14OY
Fri 11/10 UNLV vs Wyoming-2.548.5W 34 - 14UY
Sat 11/18 UNLV at Air Force+2.546.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/25 UNLV vs San José State-3.558.5L 31 - 37ON
Sat 12/2 UNLV vs Boise State+2.558.0L 20 - 44ON
Tue 12/26 UNLV vs Kansas+8.064.5L 36 - 49ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Fresno State at Purdue+4.047.0W 39 - 35OY
Sat 9/9 Fresno State vs Eastern Washington-31.563.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/16 Fresno State at Arizona State-4.048.0W 29 - 0UY
Sat 9/23 Fresno State vs Kent State-27.547.5W 53 - 10OY
Sat 9/30 Fresno State vs Nevada-25.550.5W 27 - 9UN
Sat 10/7 Fresno State at Wyoming-5.543.0L 19 - 24UN
Fri 10/13 Fresno State at Utah State-5.556.0W 37 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Fresno State vs UNLV-10.556.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/4 Fresno State vs Boise State-2.553.5W 37 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Fresno State at San José State+2.551.5L 18 - 42ON
Sat 11/18 Fresno State vs New Mexico-22.558.5L 17 - 25UN
Sat 11/25 Fresno State at San Diego State-5.547.0L 18 - 33ON
Sat 12/16 Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.052.5W 37 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#38 (.27)43% (58)34.440% (101)3.17 (58)17446% (28)2394.19 (40)#115 (.26)42% (65)28.641% (52)43% (93)4.08 (94)61.81.41.9
FRES#51 (.22)44% (48)30.540% (103)2.97 (95)10647% (24)2814.21 (36)#66 (.18)41% (60)23.542% (62)41% (64)3.31 (20)39.81.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)43% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)40% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Offense1434.434.742.5%4.191.4204131742394.554%45%40%46%13%.27
FRES Defense1323.521.541.5%3.311.8 - - - - - 53%46%42%41%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Defense1428.62741.7%4.081.9 - - - - - 53%46%41%43%13%.26
FRES Offense1330.533.243.8%4.211.1213881062813.837%62%40%47%15%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UNLV1428:0620.349%45%6.961.81.41.941.4133.1
Fresno State1329:2120.948%64%4.439.81.11.85.52.2131.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense1454% (36)40% (101)38.4173.54.539 (2).2 (40)3.17 (58)76% (43)8% (29)1.18 (3)
FRES Defense1353% (105)42% (62) - - - - .13 (61)3.16 (84)68% (42)9% (95)0.91 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense1453% (109)41% (52) - - - - .11 (50)3.1 (69)78% (101)8% (113)0.95 (42)
FRES Offense1337% (129)40% (103)28.4106.53.816 (89).14 (77)2.97 (95)74% (70)8% (28)1.01 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense1445% (96)46% (28)17.928.9239.28.313.317 (85)12 (85).37 (30)1.6 (56)32% (81)33% (43).4 (44)5% (42)2.1 (59)
FRES Defense1346% (28)41% (64) - - - - - - 17 (3).3 (90)1.7 (93)32% (60)33% (106).34 (84)7% (44)2 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense1446% (24)43% (93) - - - - - - 17 (3).48 (133)1.9 (133)33% (52)29% (55).32 (72)4% (128)2.1 (69)
FRES Offense1362% (5)47% (24)25.839.6281.37.110.929 (18)12 (85).3 (65)1.5 (118)31% (49)38% (10).43 (37)7% (93)1.8 (125)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -1.91 #76
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.43 #52
UNLV's Defense Rating: 10.09 #73
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
UNLV's 2023 Expected Record: 7.70 - 6.30
UNLV's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #60
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #98

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -1.91   Fresno State: 2.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 2.0   Fresno State: 0.5




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

UNLV's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 30
UNLV 28


Total Points: 58

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.5

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28UNLV59Fresno State14UNLVUNLV -2.5UNLV51.0Over
202310/28Fresno State31UNLV24Fresno StateFresno State -10.5UNLV56.0Under
202211/11UNLV30Fresno State37Fresno StateFresno State -9UNLV61.5Over
202109/24Fresno State38UNLV30Fresno StateFresno State -30UNLV59.0Over
202011/07UNLV27Fresno State40Fresno StateFresno State -11Fresno State57.5Over
201910/18Fresno State56UNLV27Fresno StateFresno State -14.5Fresno State52.0Over
201811/03UNLV3Fresno State48Fresno StateFresno State -27Fresno State58.5Under
201710/28Fresno State16UNLV26UNLVFresno State -21.5UNLV59.0Under
201610/01UNLV45Fresno State20UNLVUNLV -11.5UNLV56.5Over
201510/16Fresno State31UNLV28Fresno StateUNLV -5.5Fresno State49.0Over
201410/10UNLV30Fresno State27UNLVFresno State -9UNLV0
201310/19Fresno State38UNLV14Fresno StateFresno State -21Fresno State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State857 Overs
UNLV473 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 47 - 54 - 33 - 2
Road Teams4 - 85 - 72 - 33 - 4

(#76) UNLV Info
Power Rating: -1.91 #76
Offense Rating: 18.43 #52
Defense Rating: 10.09 #73
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #60
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #98
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.70 - 6.30


UNLV has won 5 straight
UNLV has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (6 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

UNLV Highlights
UNLV has Really Good Running Game (#34)
UNLV offense is explosive (#84)
UNLV offense is good on 3rd downs
UNLV does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#58)

UNLV defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

UNLV Deficiencies
UNLV Commits a Lot of Penalties (#132)
UNLV run game is really bad (#52)
UNLV does not Sack the QB (#47)
UNLV gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#88)
UNLV Does Not Stuff Runs (#40)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFRESUNLV
OverallOver#51#63
OffenseOff#41#56
DefenseDef#77#83
Special TeamsST#60#78
PassingPass#22#83
RushingRush#60#50
Run BlockRBLK#65#62
Pass BlockPBLK#40#38
Route RunningWR Rt#40#18
TacklingTkl#86#53
Run DefenseR Def#100#75
Pass Rush DefPRush#62#33
Coverage DefCov#44#103

Rematch from Week 9
Fresno State -10.5 (56.0)
Fresno State won vs UNLV this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Fresno State last year (59-14)
Fresno State beat UNLV in 2023 (31-24)
Fresno State beat UNLV in 2022 (37-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNLV | FRES
Depth Chart: UNLV | FRES
Rosters: UNLV | FRES
(#59) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50


Fresno State has won 1 straight
Fresno State has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense is really good in red zone (#115)
Fresno State has a great TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State commits very few Penalties (#75)
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State Can Not Run the Ball (#5)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State run game is really bad (#70)


  
UNLV's OC Brennan Marion
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava22435364%308517108.7
Doug Brumfield265052%252025.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Vincent Davis (Tr)14576075.269
Jai'Den Thomas108503124.746
Donavyn Lester9545594.866
Jayden Maiava7327733.834
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky White881483816.982
Jacob De Jesus60606210.148
Senika McKie23342114.950
Kaleo Ballungay18314217.484

View UNLV's Full Roster
UNLV's DC Michael Scherer
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Woodard (Tr)979322
Marsel McDuffie782102
Johnathan Baldwin653104
Fred Thompkins544110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alex Whitmore306330
Jackson Woodard (Tr)979322
Cooper Webb264210
Cameron Oliver506213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ricky Johnson333007
Johnathan Baldwin653104
Jett Elad523004

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)28241967%297624107.1
Logan Fife529257%630326.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Sherrod17296795.672
Elijah Gilliam9639654.124
Logan Fife285211.916
Devon Rivers124403.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Erik Brooks59771513.149
Jalen Moss55706612.860
Jaelen Gill (Tr)50525610.565
Mac Dalena46508311.039

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dean Clark (Tr)801023
Malachi Langley795110
Levelle Bailey786305
Morice Norris57104010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Holmes178510
Morice Norris57104010
Devo Bridges508471
Levelle Bailey786305
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Morice Norris57104010
Carlton Johnson521017
Alzillion Hamilton310007