Nevada at Fresno State Game Matchup
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -25.5 (50.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Fresno State 27 - Nevada: 9  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NEV 2nd straight Road Game
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
FRES is playing their 5th straight game
NEV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -21.5   (SP+ FRES -23)
Projected Score: NEV: 15 - FRES: 36 (52)
FRES Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
NEV Travel: 189 miles
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Nevada's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Nevada at USC+37.563.5L 14 - 66ON
Sat 9/9 Nevada vs Idaho+5.551.0L 6 - 33UN
Sat 9/16 Nevada vs Kansas+28.558.0L 24 - 31UY
Sat 9/23 Nevada at Texas State+17.060.0L 24 - 35UY
Sat 9/30 Nevada at Fresno State+25.550.5L 9 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Nevada vs UNLV+7.551.5L 27 - 45ON
Sat 10/21 Nevada at San Diego State+11.048.5W 6 - 0UY
Sat 10/28 Nevada vs New Mexico+1.050.0W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Nevada vs Hawai'i-3.550.5L 14 - 27UN
Sat 11/11 Nevada at Utah State+14.554.5L 24 - 41ON
Sat 11/18 Nevada at Colorado State+12.545.5L 20 - 30OY
Sat 11/25 Nevada vs Wyoming+11.042.0L 6 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Fresno State at Purdue+4.047.0W 39 - 35OY
Sat 9/9 Fresno State vs Eastern Washington-31.563.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/16 Fresno State at Arizona State-4.048.0W 29 - 0UY
Sat 9/23 Fresno State vs Kent State-27.547.5W 53 - 10OY
Sat 9/30 Fresno State vs Nevada-25.550.5W 27 - 9UN
Sat 10/7 Fresno State at Wyoming-5.543.0L 19 - 24UN
Fri 10/13 Fresno State at Utah State-5.556.0W 37 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Fresno State vs UNLV-10.556.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/4 Fresno State vs Boise State-2.553.5W 37 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Fresno State at San José State+2.551.5L 18 - 42ON
Sat 11/18 Fresno State vs New Mexico-22.558.5L 17 - 25UN
Sat 11/25 Fresno State at San Diego State-5.547.0L 18 - 33ON
Sat 12/16 Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.052.5W 37 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV.0435%23.137%2.8911933%1862.85.2643%28.844%42%3.9755.11.41.7
FRES.2447%26.147%3.0713348%2704.22.1539%24.842%37%3.2941.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1223.117.834.8%2.851.4173051191863.347%52%37%33%23%.04
FRES Defense1424.81839%3.291.6 - - - - - 51%48%42%37%18%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1228.831.342.9%3.971.7 - - - - - 53%47%44%42%19%.26
FRES Offense1426.13247.1%4.22122403133270442%57%47%48%11%.24

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1228:2916.935%50%655.11.41.76.32.2127.2
Fresno State1431:1621.946%50%4.541.111.65.11.6330.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1247%37%35.6118.93.319.012.8973%15%1.08
FRES Defense1451%42% - - - - .173.1569%9%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1253%44% - - - - .193.4690%13%0.95
FRES Offense1442%47%33.2133428.173.0777%8%0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1252%33%18.133.2185.65.610.378.11.638%27%.198%2.2
FRES Defense1448%37% - - - - - - 12.161.635%32%.329%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1247%42% - - - - - - 11.351.833%30%.446%2.4
FRES Offense1457%48%23.833.7269.6811.3229.351.328%32%.363%1.8

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 456.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.41   Fresno State: 2.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -22.4   Fresno State: 0.5




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 36
Nevada 15

Projected Total Points: 52
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/18Nevada21Fresno State24Fresno StateFresno State -3NA50.0Under
202309/30Fresno State27Nevada9Fresno StateFresno State -25.5Nevada50.5Under
202211/19Nevada14Fresno State41Fresno StateFresno State -22.5Fresno State54.0Over
202110/23Fresno State34Nevada32Fresno StateFresno State -3.5Nevada64.5Over
202012/05Nevada37Fresno State26NevadaNevada -6.5Nevada59.0Over
201911/23Fresno State28Nevada35NevadaFresno State -13.5Nevada51.5Over
201810/06Nevada3Fresno State21Fresno StateFresno State -15Fresno State59.0Under
201709/30Fresno State41Nevada21Fresno StateFresno State -7.5Fresno State59.5Over
201610/08Nevada27Fresno State22NevadaNevada -11.5Fresno State54.0Under
201511/05Fresno State16Nevada30NevadaNevada -3.5Nevada54.0Under
201411/22Nevada20Fresno State40Fresno StateNevada -6.5Fresno State0
201311/02Fresno State41Nevada23Fresno StateFresno State -23Nevada0
201211/10Nevada36Fresno State52Fresno State
201110/22Nevada45Fresno State38Nevada
201011/13Fresno State34Nevada35Nevada
200911/14Nevada52Fresno State14Nevada
200811/07Fresno State28Nevada41Nevada
200710/06Nevada41Fresno State49Fresno State
200609/01Fresno State28Nevada19Fresno State
200511/26Nevada38Fresno State35Nevada
200411/20Fresno State54Nevada17Fresno State
200311/08Nevada10Fresno State27Fresno State
200111/17Nevada14Fresno State61Fresno State
200010/13Fresno State58Nevada21Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State1555 Overs
Nevada965 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 122 - 92 - 60 - 3
Road Teams12 - 129 - 23 - 06 - 2

(#131) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 456.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10

Team Profile






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Nevada     Ratings Matchup     Fresno State
Power #131
#59
Off #128
#53
Def #110
#45
Talent #101
#89
SP+ #131
#63
SP+ Off #129
#58
SP+ Def #127
#82

Rematch from Week 5
Fresno State -25.5 (50.5)
Fresno State won vs Nevada this year (27-9)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: NEV | FRES
Depth Chart: NEV | FRES
Rosters: NEV | FRES
(#59) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50

Team Profile






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Nevada's OC Derek Sage
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy182572%239119.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chubba Purdy136004.619
Jamaal Bell52705.420
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keleki Latu (Tr)4037119.336
Dalevon Campbell12312026.060
Spencer Curtis19244012.828
Chubba Purdy21005.011

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kwame Agyeman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcel Walker568672
Dion Washington174200
Isaiah Essissima141004
Richard Toney90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcel Walker568672
Dion Washington174200
James Hansen31100
Isaiah Essissima141004
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Essissima141004
Marcel Walker568672
Richard Toney90001

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife15724664%17811327.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Logan Fife5212052.322
Mac Dalena53907.820
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mac Dalena60998816.675
Tre Watson21280113.333
Artis Cole12152112.730
Jake Boust43007.510

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tuasivi Nomura (Tr)1027003
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark (Tr)563224
Devo Bridges497261
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark (Tr)563224
Devo Bridges497261
Kemari Bailey52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cameron Lockridge372006
Dean Clark (Tr)563224
Tuasivi Nomura (Tr)1027003