New Mexico State at UTEP - 2023 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -3 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 28 - UTEP: 7 (Conference USA)

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: New Mexico State -11.5 (SP+ NMSU -17)
Projected Score: NMSU: 31 - UTEP: 20 (51)
NMSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NMSU Travel: 38 miles

Miners (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dana Dimel (18 - 43)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (24 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
UTEP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

UTEP's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	UTEP at Jacksonville State	-1.5	54.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/2	UTEP vs Incarnate Word	-7.5	57.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UTEP at Northwestern	+1.0	40.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/16	UTEP at Arizona	+18.0	57.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	UTEP vs UNLV	-1.0	49.5	L 28 - 45	O	N
Fri 9/29	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+2.0	49.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/11	UTEP at Florida International	-1.5	44.0	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Wed 10/18	UTEP vs New Mexico State	+3.0	48.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Wed 10/25	UTEP at Sam Houston	+4.0	38.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/4	UTEP vs Western Kentucky	+9.5	54.5	L 13 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	UTEP at Middle Tennessee	+8.5	48.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/25	UTEP vs Liberty	+18.0	54.5	L 28 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.18	38%	21.6	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	27.6	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2
UTEP	.15	41%	23.3	44%	3.39	167	40%	219	2.9	.22	43%	30.4	43%	43%	4.03	55.8	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	13	21.6	20	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	26.8	42.8%	4.03	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	43%	19%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	13	27.6	37.5	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	24	41.4%	2.9	1.8	21	386	167	219	4.3	51%	48%	44%	40%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7
UTEP	12	33:46	21	39%	57%	6.5	55.8	1.8	1.9	5.8	2.3	1	27.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08
UTEP Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.12	64%	13%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9
UTEP Offense	12	51%	44%	38.6	167.2	4.3	14	.17	3.39	73%	9%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2
UTEP Defense	12	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.42	1.9	32%	34%	.42	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2
UTEP Offense	12	48%	40%	16.9	31.7	218.8	6.9	12.9	15	12	.17	1.7	34%	29%	.18	7%	2.2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 378.99 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 UTEP: -11.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 UTEP: -15.9

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -11.215 #123
UTEP's Offense Rating: 15.53 #77
UTEP's Defense Rating: 14.62 #116
2023 Talent Rating: 379.64 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UTEP's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
UTEP's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #120
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #116
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #100

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 31
UTEP 20

Projected Total Points: 51

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

UTEP's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UTEP	31	New Mexico State	34	UTEP -4	New Mexico State	44.5	Over
2024	11/30	New Mexico State	35	UTEP	42	New Mexico State -3.5	UTEP	51.5	Over
2023	10/18	UTEP	7	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico State -3	New Mexico State	48.5	Under
2022	09/10	UTEP	20	New Mexico State	13	UTEP -17	New Mexico State	46.5	Under
2021	08/28	New Mexico State	3	UTEP	30	UTEP -9.5	UTEP	59.0	Under
2019	11/23	New Mexico State	44	UTEP	35	New Mexico State -8	New Mexico State	56.0	Over
2018	09/22	UTEP	20	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico State -4.5	New Mexico State	50.5	Under
2017	09/23	New Mexico State	41	UTEP	14	New Mexico State -17.5	New Mexico State	59.0	Under
2016	09/03	UTEP	38	New Mexico State	22	UTEP -3.5	UTEP	58.0	Over
2015	09/19	New Mexico State	47	UTEP	50	UTEP -4	New Mexico State	59.5	Over
2014	09/13	UTEP	42	New Mexico State	24	UTEP -11	UTEP	0
2013	09/14	New Mexico State	21	UTEP	42	UTEP -6.5	UTEP	0
2012	09/15	UTEP	41	New Mexico State	28
2011	09/17	New Mexico State	10	UTEP	16
2010	09/18	UTEP	42	New Mexico State	10
2009	09/19	New Mexico State	12	UTEP	38
2008	09/20	UTEP	33	New Mexico State	34
2007	09/15	New Mexico State	29	UTEP	24
2006	09/30	UTEP	44	New Mexico State	38
2005	09/03	New Mexico State	17	UTEP	34
2004	10/02	UTEP	45	New Mexico State	0
2002	10/05	New Mexico State	49	UTEP	14
2000	09/29	UTEP	41	New Mexico State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTEP	15	5	5 Overs
New Mexico State	8	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 11	5 - 7	4 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 12	7 - 5	4 - 1	3 - 4

(#60) NMSU at (#123) UTEP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	UTEP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#123
SP+SP+	#62	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#57
OffenseOff	#58	#49
DefenseDef	#107	#68
Spec TeamsST	#107	#26
TalentTal	#115	#114
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico State Injury Report

UTEP Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#68
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#17	#116
SP+SP+	#75	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#10	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#116

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#80
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#5
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UTEP on Offense


CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#49	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#77	#77
SP+SP+	#116	#46
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UTEP Run Game


CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#119

UTEP Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#2	#68
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
New Mexico State 3.0 (48.5)
New Mexico State won at UTEP this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat UTEP last year (34-31)
UTEP beat New Mexico State in 2024 (42-35)
New Mexico State beat UTEP in 2023 (28-7)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6

UTEP's OC Scotty Ohara (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cade McConnell	92	172	54%	1437	6	4	8.4
Gavin Hardison	73	129	57%	947	5	7	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Hankins	157	812	5	5.2	54
Torrance Burgess Jr.	124	620	2	5.0	40
Mike Franklin	45	180	3	4.0	21
Ezell Jolly	15	53	0	3.5	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelly Akharaiyi	48	1033	7	21.5	80
Jeremiah Ballard	34	551	1	16.2	50
Torrance Burgess Jr.	17	227	0	13.4	51
Tyrin Smith	19	191	1	10.1	24

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bradley Dale Peveto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyrice Knight	113	13	4	3	6
James Neal	67	2	1	4	2
Kobe Hylton	47	1	0	1	4
Maurice Westmoreland	34	9	8	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	34	9	8	4	2
Praise Amaewhule	24	6	5	7	2
Kanious Vaughn	19	6	5	1	0
Tyrice Knight	113	13	4	3	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
A.J. Odums (Tr)	30	1	0	0	7
Tyrice Knight	113	13	4	3	6
Torey Richardson	26	3	1	0	6