New Mexico at Fresno State - 2023 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, November 18th 2023 (10:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -22.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
New Mexico 25 - Fresno State: 17  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 35 (22 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNM 2nd straight Road Game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
UNM is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -14   (SP+ FRES -17)

Projected Score: UNM: 22 - FRES: 36 (58)
FRES Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
UNM Travel: 744 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 New Mexico at Texas A&M+37.548.5L 10 - 52ON
Sat 9/9 New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech-16.051.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 9/16 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2.552.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 9/23 New Mexico at Massachusetts+3.548.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 9/30 New Mexico at Wyoming+14.540.5L 26 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 New Mexico vs San José State+6.555.0L 24 - 52ON
Sat 10/21 New Mexico vs Hawai'i+1.560.0W 42 - 21OY
Sat 10/28 New Mexico at Nevada-1.050.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 11/4 New Mexico vs UNLV+10.061.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 11/11 New Mexico at Boise State+27.558.5L 14 - 42UN
Sat 11/18 New Mexico at Fresno State+22.558.5W 25 - 17UY
Fri 11/24 New Mexico vs Utah State+4.558.5L 41 - 44OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Fresno State at Purdue+4.047.0W 39 - 35OY
Sat 9/9 Fresno State vs Eastern Washington-31.563.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/16 Fresno State at Arizona State-4.048.0W 29 - 0UY
Sat 9/23 Fresno State vs Kent State-27.547.5W 53 - 10OY
Sat 9/30 Fresno State vs Nevada-25.550.5W 27 - 9UN
Sat 10/7 Fresno State at Wyoming-5.543.0L 19 - 24UN
Fri 10/13 Fresno State at Utah State-5.556.0W 37 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Fresno State vs UNLV-10.556.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/4 Fresno State vs Boise State-2.553.5W 37 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Fresno State at San José State+2.551.5L 18 - 42ON
Sat 11/18 Fresno State vs New Mexico-22.558.5L 17 - 25UN
Sat 11/25 Fresno State at San Diego State-5.547.0L 18 - 33ON
Sat 12/16 Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.052.5W 37 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#15 (.31)48% (12)27.350% (13)3.31 (31)19347% (23)2184.11 (49)#127 (.32)48% (130)35.150% (126)47% (127)4.23 (109)89.41.30.7
FRES#51 (.22)44% (48)30.540% (103)2.97 (95)10647% (24)2814.21 (36)#66 (.18)41% (60)23.542% (62)41% (64)3.31 (20)39.81.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1227.322.248.3%4.111.3234111932185.352%47%50%47%21%.31
FRES Defense1323.521.541.5%3.311.8 - - - - - 53%46%42%41%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense1235.135.248.4%4.230.7 - - - - - 52%48%50%47%17%.32
FRES Offense1330.533.243.8%4.211.1213881062813.837%62%40%47%15%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1232:2623.241%64%9.889.41.30.73.91.3024.5
Fresno State1329:2120.948%64%4.439.81.11.85.52.2131.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1252% (53)50% (13)36.7192.75.326 (30).26 (16)3.31 (31)79% (23)12% (110)1.02 (54)
FRES Defense1353% (105)42% (62) - - - - .13 (61)3.16 (84)68% (42)9% (95)0.91 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1252% (101)50% (126) - - - - .21 (106)3.35 (115)63% (18)10% (80)0.88 (20)
FRES Offense1337% (129)40% (103)28.4106.53.816 (89).14 (77)2.97 (95)74% (70)8% (28)1.01 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1247% (83)47% (23)16.529.4217.97.413.217 (85)10 (56).42 (23)1.6 (57)32% (75)33% (44).39 (47)9% (129)2 (72)
FRES Defense1346% (28)41% (64) - - - - - - 17 (3).3 (90)1.7 (93)32% (60)33% (106).34 (84)7% (44)2 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1248% (41)47% (127) - - - - - - 4 (131).45 (128)1.8 (118)24% (133)40% (132).46 (122)7% (28)1.8 (14)
FRES Offense1362% (5)47% (24)25.839.6281.37.110.929 (18)12 (85).3 (65)1.5 (118)31% (49)38% (10).43 (37)7% (93)1.8 (125)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.50 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.50   Fresno State: 2.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.8   Fresno State: 0.5




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 35.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 36
New Mexico 22


Total Points: 58

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.5

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21New Mexico21Fresno State38Fresno StateFresno State -12Fresno State61.0Under
202311/18Fresno State17New Mexico25New MexicoFresno State -22.5New Mexico58.5Under
202210/22New Mexico9Fresno State41Fresno StateFresno State -9.5Fresno State40.0Over
202111/13Fresno State34New Mexico7Fresno StateFresno State -24Fresno State51.0Under
202012/12New Mexico49Fresno State39New MexicoFresno State -15New Mexico56.5Over
201810/20New Mexico7Fresno State38Fresno StateFresno State -14Fresno State52.5Under
201710/14Fresno State38New Mexico0Fresno StateNew Mexico -2.5Fresno State54.5Under
201409/26New Mexico24Fresno State35Fresno StateFresno State -3Fresno State0
201311/23Fresno State69New Mexico28Fresno StateFresno State -31Fresno State0
201210/27New Mexico32Fresno State49Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State872 Overs
New Mexico225 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 64 - 52 - 12 - 4
Road Teams6 - 45 - 44 - 21 - 2

(#94) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -5.50 #94
Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10


New Mexico has lost 3 straight
New Mexico has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico offense is efficent (#108)
New Mexico Secondary is very good (#131)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
New Mexico Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
New Mexico does not Sack the QB (#122)
New Mexico has a bad defense (#98)
New Mexico has a bad defensive line (#82)
New Mexico has a bad red zone defense (#43)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFRESUNM
OverallOver#51#100
OffenseOff#41#27
DefenseDef#77#109
Special TeamsST#60#109
PassingPass#22#65
RushingRush#60#16
Run BlockRBLK#65#10
Pass BlockPBLK#40#26
Route RunningWR Rt#40#39
TacklingTkl#86#117
Run DefenseR Def#100#117
Pass Rush DefPRush#62#101
Coverage DefCov#44#108

Rematch from Week 12
Fresno State -22.5 (58.5)
New Mexico won at Fresno State this year (25-17)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico last year (38-21)
New Mexico beat Fresno State in 2023 (25-17)
Fresno State beat New Mexico in 2022 (41-9)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | FRES
Depth Chart: UNM | FRES
Rosters: UNM | FRES
(#59) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50


Fresno State has lost 1 straight
Fresno State has won 5 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense is really good in red zone (#115)
Fresno State has a great TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State commits very few Penalties (#75)
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State Can Not Run the Ball (#5)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State run game is really bad (#70)


  
New Mexico's OC Bryant Vincent
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)15728256%20741197.4
Devon Dampier406463%525608.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacory Merritt1891185176.355
Andrew Henry (Tr)5235036.764
Devon Dampier5933345.637
Sherod White3715514.212
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)30551218.459
Jeremiah Hixon39482512.459
D.J. Washington29336311.635
Andrew Erickson20263113.252

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Troy Reffett
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alec Marenco644123
Christian Ellis580004
Dereck Moore510000
Syaire Riley484120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyler Drake256410
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)274210
Hunter Rapolla194211
Mihalis Santorineos203200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Morris332007
Donte Martin232006
Christian Ellis580004

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)28241967%297624107.1
Logan Fife529257%630326.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Sherrod17296795.672
Elijah Gilliam9639654.124
Logan Fife285211.916
Devon Rivers124403.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Erik Brooks59771513.149
Jalen Moss55706612.860
Jaelen Gill (Tr)50525610.565
Mac Dalena46508311.039

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dean Clark (Tr)801023
Malachi Langley795110
Levelle Bailey786305
Morice Norris57104010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Holmes178510
Morice Norris57104010
Devo Bridges508471
Levelle Bailey786305
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Morice Norris57104010
Carlton Johnson521017
Alzillion Hamilton310007