New Mexico at Fresno State - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (10:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -22.5 (58.5) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico 25 - Fresno State: 17 (Mountain West)

Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNM 2nd straight Road Game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
UNM is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -14 (SP+ FRES -17)
Projected Score: UNM: 19 - FRES: 33 (53)
FRES Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
UNM Travel: 744 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+37.5	48.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/9	New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech	-16.0	51.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-2.5	52.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/23	New Mexico at Massachusetts	+3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico at Wyoming	+14.5	40.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	New Mexico vs San José State	+6.5	55.0	L 24 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	New Mexico vs Hawai'i	+1.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	New Mexico at Nevada	-1.0	50.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico vs UNLV	+10.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	58.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	New Mexico at Fresno State	+22.5	58.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	New Mexico vs Utah State	+4.5	58.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	-.06	33%	27.1	39%	2.97	121	25%	106	3.04	.17	43%	22.3	47%	40%	3.55	51.2	1.2	1.9
FRES	.24	47%	25.8	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	18.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.1	27.5	33%	3.04	1.2	13	227	121	106	3.3	57%	41%	39%	25%	24%	-.06
FRES Defense	14	18.8	15.3	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	22.3	26.3	43.2%	3.55	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	47%	40%	17%	.17
FRES Offense	14	25.8	26.5	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	28:57	13.1	22%	29%	6.1	51.2	1.2	1.9	5.2	2.1	2	28.8
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	57%	39%	36.5	121.3	3.3	12	.06	2.97	56%	17%	0.92
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	55%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.17	77%	10%	0.92
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	41%	25%	11.5	21.3	105.5	5	9.2	3	9	-.15	1.2	35%	18%	.01	6%	1.9
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.24	1.6	27%	23%	.1	7%	1.9
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.50 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 375.35 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.50 Fresno State: 2.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.8 Fresno State: 0.5

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.785 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 555.30 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 33
New Mexico 19

Projected Total Points: 53

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	New Mexico	21	Fresno State	38	Fresno State -12	Fresno State	61.0	Under
2023	11/18	Fresno State	17	New Mexico	25	Fresno State -22.5	New Mexico	58.5	Under
2022	10/22	New Mexico	9	Fresno State	41	Fresno State -9.5	Fresno State	40.0	Over
2021	11/13	Fresno State	34	New Mexico	7	Fresno State -24	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2020	12/12	New Mexico	49	Fresno State	39	Fresno State -15	New Mexico	56.5	Over
2018	10/20	New Mexico	7	Fresno State	38	Fresno State -14	Fresno State	52.5	Under
2017	10/14	Fresno State	38	New Mexico	0	New Mexico -2.5	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2014	09/26	New Mexico	24	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -3	Fresno State	0
2013	11/23	Fresno State	69	New Mexico	28	Fresno State -31	Fresno State	0
2012	10/27	New Mexico	32	Fresno State	49

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	8	7	2 Overs
New Mexico	2	2	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	4 - 5	2 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 4	5 - 4	4 - 2	1 - 2

(#94) UNM at (#59) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#94	#59
SP+SP+	#124	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#121	#63
OffenseOff	#30	#44
DefenseDef	#136	#100
Spec TeamsST	#133	#74
TalentTal	#117	#78
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#100
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#12	#45
SP+SP+	#88	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#24	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#100

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#79
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#136
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#53	#130
SP+SP+	#58	#128
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#84	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#135

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#135
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Fresno State -22.5 (58.5)
New Mexico won at Fresno State this year (25-17)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico in 2024 (38-21)
New Mexico beat Fresno State in 2023 (25-17)

UNM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)	157	282	56%	2074	11	9	7.4
Devon Dampier	40	64	63%	525	6	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacory Merritt	189	1185	17	6.3	55
Andrew Henry (Tr)	52	350	3	6.7	64
Devon Dampier	59	333	4	5.6	37
Sherod White	37	155	1	4.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)	30	551	2	18.4	59
Jeremiah Hixon	39	482	5	12.4	59
D.J. Washington	29	336	3	11.6	35
Andrew Erickson	20	263	1	13.2	52

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Troy Reffett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Marenco	64	4	1	2	3
Christian Ellis	58	0	0	0	4
Dereck Moore	51	0	0	0	0
Syaire Riley	48	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyler Drake	25	6	4	1	0
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)	27	4	2	1	0
Hunter Rapolla	19	4	2	1	1
Mihalis Santorineos	20	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Zach Morris	33	2	7
Donte Martin	23	2	6
Christian Ellis	58	0	4

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7