New Mexico State at Hawai'i - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (11:59 PM EDT)
Hawai'i -4 (54.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Hawai'i 20 - New Mexico State: 17

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 21.9 MPH
NMSU 3rd straight Road Game
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -13 (SP+ NMSU -17.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 33 - HAW: 20 (54)
HAW Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 3210 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (4 - 13)
Avg Score : 21 - 32 (23 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 8.6 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Hawai'i at Vanderbilt	+17.0	54.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Fri 9/1	Hawai'i vs Stanford	+2.0	54.0	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	Hawai'i vs UAlbany	-10.5	58.5	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Hawai'i at Oregon	+38.5	67.5	L 10 - 55	U	N
Sat 9/23	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-4.0	54.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Hawai'i at UNLV	+10.5	58.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Hawai'i vs San Diego State	+6.0	51.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Hawai'i at New Mexico	-1.5	60.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/28	Hawai'i vs San José State	+10.5	57.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/4	Hawai'i at Nevada	+3.5	50.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Hawai'i vs Air Force	+22.5	47.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Hawai'i at Wyoming	+13.5	45.5	L 9 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Hawai'i vs Colorado State	+6.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9
HAW	#94 (.14)	41% (82)	21.4	40% (98)	2.79 (119)	76	42% (64)	276	3.22 (111)	#102 (.24)	43% (84)	32.2	44% (77)	43% (88)	4.14 (101)	56.4	1.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	27.5	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28
HAW Defense	13	32.2	26.7	43.2%	4.14	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	44%	43%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	23.6	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22
HAW Offense	13	21.4	23.3	41%	3.22	1.8	19	352	76	276	3.1	34%	65%	40%	42%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2
Hawai'i	13	29:39	19.3	37%	52%	6.2	56.4	1.8	1.1	5.2	1.7	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)
HAW Defense	13	57% (127)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (87)	3.16 (83)	75% (82)	10% (66)	1.06 (94)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)
HAW Offense	13	34% (133)	40% (98)	24.9	76.1	3.1	6 (133)	.09 (103)	2.79 (119)	62% (126)	11% (90)	1 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)
HAW Defense	13	43% (7)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.38 (114)	1.7 (110)	31% (89)	31% (80)	.4 (107)	6% (58)	2.1 (84)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)
HAW Offense	13	65% (2)	42% (64)	25.9	41.3	276.4	6.7	10.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.2 (94)	1.5 (104)	34% (96)	32% (62)	.33 (69)	7% (100)	2 (84)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03 Hawai'i: -12.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0 Hawai'i: -16.7

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -12.32 #127
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 14.83 #118
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Hawai'i's 2023 Expected Record: 4.40 - 8.60
Hawai'i's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #123
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #121

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 33
Hawai'i 20

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 29
Hawai'i 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 29
Hawai'i 23

Total Points: 52

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.3
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

Hawai'i's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Hawai'i	20	New Mexico State	17	Hawai'i -4	New Mexico State	54.5	Under
2022	09/24	New Mexico State	45	Hawai'i	26	New Mexico State -4.5	New Mexico State	53.0	Over
2021	10/23	Hawai'i	48	New Mexico State	34	Hawai'i -18	New Mexico State	62.5	Over
2021	09/25	New Mexico State	21	Hawai'i	41	Hawai'i -17	Hawai'i	63.0	Under
2011	10/23	Hawai'i	45	New Mexico State	34
2010	11/27	New Mexico State	24	Hawai'i	59
2009	11/14	Hawai'i	24	New Mexico State	6
2008	11/08	New Mexico State	30	Hawai'i	42
2007	10/28	Hawai'i	50	New Mexico State	13
2006	10/21	New Mexico State	30	Hawai'i	49
2005	10/16	Hawai'i	49	New Mexico State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	10	1	2 Overs
New Mexico State	1	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	3 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 1

(#60) NMSU at (#127) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	HAW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#127
SP+SP+	#62	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#110
OffenseOff	#58	#76
DefenseDef	#107	#121
Spec TeamsST	#107	#118
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico State Injury Report

Hawai'i Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	HAW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#121
SuccessSuc	#17	#84
ExplosiveExp	#88	#97
PPAPPA	#29	#102
PowerPwr	#17	#118
SP+SP+	#75	#121
Pts POPPO	#59	#101
HavocHav	#34	#63

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#10	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#77
Run ExplRExp	#92	#94
PPAExp	#11	#87
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#60
TackleTak	-	#127

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#110
PPAExp	#52	#114
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#109
F7 HavocF7	#35	#66
DB HavocDB	#61	#58

Hawai'i on Offense


CategoryCat	HAW Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#107
SuccessSuc	#82	#103
ExplosiveExp	#45	#44
PPAPPA	#94	#91
PowerPwr	#103	#77
SP+SP+	#111	#46
Pts POPPO	#111	#63
HavocHav	#99	#83

Hawai'i Run Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#108	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#98	#96
Run ExplRExp	#67	#80
PPAExp	#103	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Hawai'i Pass Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#37	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#20
PPAExp	#94	#53
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#30	#68
F7 HavocF7	#90	#70
DB HavocDB	#100	#83

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78° - Wind: 22 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Hawai'i -4.0 (54.5)
Hawai'i won vs New Mexico State this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat New Mexico State in 2023 (20-17)
New Mexico State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (45-26)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6

HAW's OC Roman Sapolu (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	332	525	63%	3542	26	14	6.7
Jake Farrell	3	8	38%	14	0	1	1.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	63	255	1	4.0	22
Jordan Johnson	34	198	0	5.8	28
David Cordero	32	138	0	4.3	36
Tylan Hines	27	93	0	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Steven McBride (Tr)	63	1024	9	16.3	65
Pofele Ashlock	83	832	9	10.0	53
Koali Nishigaya	39	322	1	8.3	29
Alex Perry	24	277	3	11.5	38

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Jacob Yoro (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Peter Manuma	88	6	0	0	1
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0
Jalen Smith	65	9	2	1	1
Meki Pei	43	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Evaimalo	23	6	4	1	1
Elijah Robinson (Tr)	24	3	3	0	1
Andrew Choi	36	8	3	0	0
Isaiah Tufaga	79	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Virdel Edwards	37	1	9
Jojo Forest	12	1	8
Caleb Brown	17	1	7