Sam Houston at New Mexico State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Wednesday, October 11th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -4.5 (43.0) (-192)  Open: -4.5 | 43.0
New Mexico State 27 - Sam Houston: 13  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 20 - 26 (17 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SHSU 2nd straight Road Game
NMSU 2nd straight Home Game
SHSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -14.5   (SP+ NMSU -15)

Projected Score: SHSU: 16 - NMSU: 30 (46)
NMSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
SHSU Travel: 668 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Sam Houston at BYU+19.046.5L 0 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 Sam Houston vs Air Force+13.536.5L 3 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 Sam Houston at Houston+11.537.0L 7 - 38ON
Thu 9/28 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+6.536.5L 28 - 35ON
Thu 10/5 Sam Houston at Liberty+21.046.5L 16 - 21UY
Wed 10/11 Sam Houston at New Mexico State+4.543.0L 13 - 27UN
Wed 10/18 Sam Houston vs Florida International-6.042.0L 27 - 33ON
Wed 10/25 Sam Houston vs UTEP-4.038.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/4 Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State-16.541.5W 24 - 21ON
Sat 11/11 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+8.549.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/18 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+12.552.0L 23 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee+3.549.5W 23 - 20UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.045.5L 30 - 41ON
Sat 9/2 New Mexico State vs Western Illinois-21.055.0W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 New Mexico State at Liberty+9.054.5L 17 - 33UN
Sat 9/16 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2.552.0W 27 - 17UY
Sat 9/23 New Mexico State at Hawai'i+4.054.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4 New Mexico State vs Florida International-6.549.5W 34 - 17OY
Wed 10/11 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-4.543.0W 27 - 13UY
Wed 10/18 New Mexico State at UTEP-3.048.5W 28 - 7UY
Tue 10/24 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+3.055.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.055.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+4.555.5W 38 - 29OY
Sat 11/18 New Mexico State at Auburn+25.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State-2.048.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.554.0L 35 - 49ON
Sat 12/16 New Mexico State vs Fresno State-3.052.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)37% (118)2034% (130)2.61 (131)8940% (84)2223.47 (97)#69 (.18)41% (58)26.241% (55)42% (75)3.77 (64)42.21.31.7
NMSU#29 (.28)47% (17)27.552% (7)3.57 (5)19942% (61)2143.98 (59)#91 (.22)45% (103)22.846% (96)44% (96)3.73 (63)58.310.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense122016.836.9%3.471.318311892222.943%55%34%40%15%.1
NMSU Defense1522.819.344.5%3.730.9 - - - - - 47%52%46%44%16%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1226.225.841.3%3.771.7 - - - - - 53%47%41%42%14%.18
NMSU Offense1527.530.347.3%3.981204121992145.755%45%52%42%14%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1229:4118.336%59%5.142.21.31.74.31.4228
New Mexico State1531:2820.543%58%6.258.310.95.52.1128.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1243% (110)34% (130)30.789.12.913 (108)-.02 (129)2.61 (131)83% (7)9% (56)0.81 (130)
NMSU Defense1547% (33)46% (96) - - - - .2 (103)3.21 (95)74% (73)10% (70)1.02 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1253% (104)41% (55) - - - - .16 (80)3.2 (92)79% (104)8% (119)1.02 (82)
NMSU Offense1555% (31)52% (7)35.1198.65.722 (51).27 (11)3.57 (5)81% (17)8% (35)0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1255% (25)40% (84)23.537.3222.369.515 (96)12 (85).24 (81)1.4 (127)34% (105)24% (124).17 (112)6% (55)1.9 (119)
NMSU Defense1552% (108)44% (96) - - - - - - 7 (111).25 (53)1.5 (20)29% (114)30% (67).38 (102)6% (83)2.3 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1247% (32)42% (75) - - - - - - 13 (26).23 (49)1.5 (24)31% (79)27% (25).26 (41)6% (87)2.1 (88)
NMSU Offense1545% (100)42% (61)15.726.2213.78.213.628 (23)10 (56).33 (52)1.7 (32)29% (15)34% (40).42 (41)6% (61)2 (68)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -9.92   New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -13.5   New Mexico State: 1.0




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico State 30
Sam Houston 16


Total Points: 46

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21Sam Houston31New Mexico State11Sam HoustonSam Houston -15.5Sam Houston44.5Under
202310/11New Mexico State27Sam Houston13New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -4.5New Mexico State43.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State110 Overs
Sam Houston112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#118) Sam Houston Info
Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40


Sam Houston has lost 5 straight
Sam Houston has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 5 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Sam Houston Highlights
Sam Houston commits very few Penalties (#95)
Sam Houston defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Sam Houston Deficiencies
Sam Houston has a really bad Offense
Sam Houston Can Not Run the Ball (#85)
Sam Houston offense is really bad (#111)
Sam Houston offense is not Explosive (#70)
Sam Houston run game is really bad (#105)
Sam Houston does not Sack the QB (#64)
Sam Houston Does Not Stuff Runs (#96)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNMSUSHSU
OverallOver#65#85
OffenseOff#54#103
DefenseDef#82#24
Special TeamsST#85#105
PassingPass#36#53
RushingRush#9#101
Run BlockRBLK#73#100
Pass BlockPBLK#93#78
Route RunningWR Rt#60#63
TacklingTkl#101#11
Run DefenseR Def#87#63
Pass Rush DefPRush#52#82
Coverage DefCov#87#7

Rematch from Week 7
New Mexico State -4.5 (43.0)
New Mexico State won vs Sam Houston this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat New Mexico State last year (31-11)
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (27-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | NMSU
Depth Chart: SHSU | NMSU
Rosters: SHSU | NMSU
(#60) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: 3.015 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60


New Mexico State has won 1 straight
New Mexico State has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State has Really Good Running Game (#136)
New Mexico State offense is efficent (#128)
New Mexico State has a top Offensive Line (#136)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State has a bad defense (#22)


  
Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keegan Shoemaker26441963%250415116.0
Grant Gunnell142264%100014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
John Gentry (Tr)11939433.328
Keegan Shoemaker9325412.729
Adrian Murdaugh2611724.548
Noah Smith2710623.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Smith7978269.942
Malik Phillips35430112.341
Al'Vonte Woodard31339210.926
John Gentry (Tr)3526127.556

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Clayton Carlin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevor Williams1148240
Kavian Gaither625101
Caleb Weaver421004
Da'Marcus Crosby421003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nixon236511
Chris Scott154300
Trevor Williams1148240
Markel Perry305230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Da'Veawn Armstead90005
Dakerric Hobbs281005
Caleb Weaver421004

New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia22136660%29732698.1
Blaze Berlowitz101953%134117.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia17692375.244
Star Thomas11265345.840
Ahmonte Watkins5957229.780
Jamoni Jones8734333.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Brady38624416.480
Trent Hudson345451016.078
Eli Stowers (Tr)35366210.532
Chris Bellamy18282115.752

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Myles Rowser (Tr)700002
Jordan Vincent (Tr)653203
Jeremiah Dervil621014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sterling Webb306510
Buddha Peleti347540
Izaiah Reed234450
Gabe Peterson559450
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Seldon533007
Keyshaun Elliott11010346
Keonte Glinton (Tr)180016