Sam Houston at New Mexico State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats at New Mexico State Aggies

Wednesday, October 11th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -4.5 (43.0) (-192) Open: -4.5 | 43.0
New Mexico State 27 - Sam Houston: 13 (Conference USA)

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 20 - 26 (17 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SHSU 2nd straight Road Game
NMSU 2nd straight Home Game
SHSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -14.5 (SP+ NMSU -15)
Projected Score: SHSU: 15 - NMSU: 30 (45)
NMSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
SHSU Travel: 668 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SHSU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33	O	N
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU	#115 (.1)	37% (118)	20	34% (130)	2.61 (131)	89	40% (84)	222	3.47 (97)	#69 (.18)	41% (58)	26.2	41% (55)	42% (75)	3.77 (64)	42.2	1.3	1.7
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)		41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)		47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Offense	12	20	16.8	36.9%	3.47	1.3	18	311	89	222	2.9	43%	55%	34%	40%	15%	.1
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	19.3	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Defense	12	26.2	25.8	41.3%	3.77	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	42%	14%	.18
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	30.3	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sam Houston	12	29:41	18.3	36%	59%	5.1	42.2	1.3	1.7	4.3	1.4	2	28
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (130)	30.7	89.1	2.9	13 (108)	-.02 (129)	2.61 (131)	83% (7)	9% (56)	0.81 (130)
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense	12	53% (104)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.16 (80)	3.2 (92)	79% (104)	8% (119)	1.02 (82)
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense	12	55% (25)	40% (84)	23.5	37.3	222.3	6	9.5	15 (96)	12 (85)	.24 (81)	1.4 (127)	34% (105)	24% (124)	.17 (112)	6% (55)	1.9 (119)
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense	12	47% (32)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.23 (49)	1.5 (24)	31% (79)	27% (25)	.26 (41)	6% (87)	2.1 (88)
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -9.92 New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -13.5 New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 30
Sam Houston 15

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 29
Sam Houston 16

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 28
Sam Houston 20

Total Points: 48

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/02	New Mexico State	37	Sam Houston	10	Sam Houston -1.5	New Mexico State	53.5	Under
2024	09/21	Sam Houston	31	New Mexico State	11	Sam Houston -15.5	Sam Houston	44.5	Under
2023	10/11	New Mexico State	27	Sam Houston	13	New Mexico State -4.5	New Mexico State	43.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	2	2	0 Overs
Sam Houston	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 2

(#118) SHSU at (#60) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SHSU	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#118	#60
SP+SP+	#112	#62
Perf GradeGrade	#103	#80
OffenseOff	#121	#58
DefenseDef	#28	#107
Spec TeamsST	#129	#107
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Sam Houston Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Sam Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#107
SuccessSuc	#118	#103
ExplosiveExp	#120	#44
PPAPPA	#115	#91
PowerPwr	#113	#77
SP+SP+	#120	#46
Pts POPPO	#97	#63
HavocHav	#56	#83

Sam Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#136	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#96
Run ExplRExp	#130	#80
PPAExp	#129	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Sam Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#127	#20
PPAExp	#81	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#68
F7 HavocF7	#56	#70
DB HavocDB	#55	#83

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	SHSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#28
SuccessSuc	#17	#58
ExplosiveExp	#88	#39
PPAPPA	#29	#69
PowerPwr	#17	#57
SP+SP+	#75	#82
Pts POPPO	#59	#64
HavocHav	#34	#117

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#55
Run ExplRExp	#92	#82
PPAExp	#11	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#112
TackleTak	-	#13

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#24
PPAExp	#52	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#107
F7 HavocF7	#35	#119
DB HavocDB	#61	#87

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 7
New Mexico State -4.5 (43.0)
New Mexico State won vs Sam Houston this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat New Mexico State last year (31-11)
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (27-13)

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keegan Shoemaker	264	419	63%	2504	15	11	6.0
Grant Gunnell	14	22	64%	100	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Gentry (Tr)	119	394	3	3.3	28
Keegan Shoemaker	93	254	1	2.7	29
Adrian Murdaugh	26	117	2	4.5	48
Noah Smith	27	106	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Smith	79	782	6	9.9	42
Malik Phillips	35	430	1	12.3	41
Al'Vonte Woodard	31	339	2	10.9	26
John Gentry (Tr)	35	261	2	7.5	56

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Kavian Gaither	62	5	1	0	1
Caleb Weaver	42	1	0	0	4
Da'Marcus Crosby	42	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nixon	23	6	5	1	1
Chris Scott	15	4	3	0	0
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Markel Perry	30	5	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Da'Veawn Armstead	9	0	5
Dakerric Hobbs	28	1	5
Caleb Weaver	42	1	4

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6