Western Illinois at New Mexico State

Western Illinois at New Mexico State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Western Illinois Leathernecks at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -21 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico State 58 - Western Illinois: 21

Leathernecks (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 21 - 58 (21 - 58 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: New Mexico State -3 (SP+ NMSU -1)
NMSU Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%

Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WIU Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Illinois at New Mexico State	+21.0	55.0	L 21 - 58	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Illinois's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	45.5	L 30 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/2	New Mexico State vs Western Illinois	-21.0	55.0	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at Liberty	+9.0	54.5	L 17 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+2.5	52.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+4.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/11	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-4.5	43.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Wed 10/18	New Mexico State at UTEP	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Tue 10/24	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	55.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.0	55.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+4.5	55.5	W 38 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Auburn	+25.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/1	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	54.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	New Mexico State vs Fresno State	-3.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIU		0%	21	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	58	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	27.5	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	22.8	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIU Offense	1	21	21	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NMSU Defense	15	22.8	19.3	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIU Defense	1	58	58	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NMSU Offense	15	27.5	30.3	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Illinois	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIU Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIU Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIU Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIU Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

Western Illinois's Power Ratings
Western Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Western Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Western Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Western Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: -
Western Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Western Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Western Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average MVFC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Illinois: New Mexico State: 3.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Illinois: New Mexico State: 1.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 3.015 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Illinois Scoring
Offense: 21 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 58 PPG
Defense on Road: 58

Western Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 31
Western Illinois 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 46
Western Illinois 14

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 44
Western Illinois 21

Total Points: 65

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	New Mexico State	58	Western Illinois	21	New Mexico State -21	New Mexico State	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	1	1	1 Overs
Western Illinois	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#NR) WIU at (#60) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WIU	NMSU
Power RatePwr	NR	#60
SP+SP+	NR	#62
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#80
OffenseOff	NR	#58
DefenseDef	NR	#107
Spec TeamsST	NR	#107
TalentTal	#181	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#75

Western Illinois Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Western Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	WIU Off	NMSU Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	#103
ExplosiveExp	NR	#44
PPAPPA	NR	#91
PowerPwr	NR	#77
SP+SP+	NR	#46
Pts POPPO	NR	#63
HavocHav	NR	#83

Western Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	WIU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#96
Run ExplRExp	NR	#80
PPAExp	NR	#103
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#95
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#87
TackleTak	-	#119

Western Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	WIU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#96
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#20
PPAExp	NR	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#68
F7 HavocF7	NR	#70
DB HavocDB	NR	#83

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WIU Def
Perf GradePerf	#58	NR
SuccessSuc	#17	NR
ExplosiveExp	#88	NR
PPAPPA	#29	NR
PowerPwr	#17	NR
SP+SP+	#75	NR
Pts POPPO	#59	NR
HavocHav	#34	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WIU Def
Run GameRun	#10	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	NR
Run ExplRExp	#92	NR
PPAExp	#11	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#51	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	WIU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#32	NR
PPAExp	#52	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	NR
F7 HavocF7	#35	NR
DB HavocDB	#61	NR

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

WIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86°

Rematch from Week 1
New Mexico State -21.0 (55.0)
New Mexico State won vs Western Illinois this year (58-21)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Western Illinois in 2023 (58-21)

WIU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Western Illinois's Full Roster

WIU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL
Ryan Crandall	17	1
Willie Jones	14	0
KaRon Coleman	13	1
Noah Epley	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL
Ryan Crandall	17	1
Willie Jones	14	0
KaRon Coleman	13	1
Noah Epley	10	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL
Ryan Crandall	17	1
Willie Jones	14	0
KaRon Coleman	13	1

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia	221	366	60%	2973	26	9	8.1
Blaze Berlowitz	10	19	53%	134	1	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia	176	923	7	5.2	44
Star Thomas	112	653	4	5.8	40
Ahmonte Watkins	59	572	2	9.7	80
Jamoni Jones	87	343	3	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathan Brady	38	624	4	16.4	80
Trent Hudson	34	545	10	16.0	78
Eli Stowers (Tr)	35	366	2	10.5	32
Chris Bellamy	18	282	1	15.7	52

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Myles Rowser (Tr)	70	0	0	0	2
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	65	3	2	0	3
Jeremiah Dervil	62	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Sterling Webb	30	6	5	1
Buddha Peleti	34	7	5	4
Izaiah Reed	23	4	4	5
Gabe Peterson	55	9	4	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Seldon	53	3	0	0	7
Keyshaun Elliott	110	10	3	4	6
Keonte Glinton (Tr)	18	0	0	1	6