Fresno State at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Purdue -4 (47.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Fresno State 39 - Purdue: 35

 
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (27 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Fresno State -3  (SP+ FRES -8)
Projected Score: FRES: 26 - PUR: 23 (49)
PUR Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 1780 miles, 3 hrs behind
Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Fresno State at Purdue+4.047.0W 39 - 35OY
Sat 9/9 Fresno State vs Eastern Washington-31.563.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/16 Fresno State at Arizona State-4.048.0W 29 - 0UY
Sat 9/23 Fresno State vs Kent State-27.547.5W 53 - 10OY
Sat 9/30 Fresno State vs Nevada-25.550.5W 27 - 9UN
Sat 10/7 Fresno State at Wyoming-5.543.0L 19 - 24UN
Fri 10/13 Fresno State at Utah State-5.556.0W 37 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Fresno State vs UNLV-10.556.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/4 Fresno State vs Boise State-2.553.5W 37 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Fresno State at San José State+2.551.5L 18 - 42ON
Sat 11/18 Fresno State vs New Mexico-22.558.5L 17 - 25UN
Sat 11/25 Fresno State at San Diego State-5.547.0L 18 - 33ON
Sat 12/16 Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.052.5W 37 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Purdue vs Fresno State-4.047.0L 35 - 39ON
Sat 9/9 Purdue at Virginia Tech+1.549.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Purdue vs Syracuse+1.056.5L 20 - 35UN
Fri 9/22 Purdue vs Wisconsin+5.554.0L 17 - 38ON
Sat 9/30 Purdue vs Illinois-1.054.0W 44 - 19OY
Sat 10/7 Purdue at Iowa+2.538.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Purdue vs Ohio State+17.553.0L 7 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Purdue at Nebraska-1.039.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 11/4 Purdue at Michigan+32.552.5L 13 - 41OY
Sat 11/11 Purdue vs Minnesota+1.548.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 11/18 Purdue at Northwestern+2.547.5L 15 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Purdue vs Indiana-2.555.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#51 (.22)44% (48)30.540% (103)2.97 (95)10647% (24)2814.21 (36)#66 (.18)41% (60)23.542% (62)41% (64)3.31 (20)39.81.11.8
PUR#86 (.16)42% (60)23.945% (51)3.16 (60)16941% (78)2113.21 (112)#74 (.19)40% (44)30.441% (45)40% (52)4.28 (112)57.61.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1330.526.743.8%4.211.1213881062813.837%62%40%47%15%.22
PUR Defense1230.433.340.2%4.281.5 - - - - - 51%49%41%40%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1323.527.741.5%3.311.8 - - - - - 53%46%42%41%16%.18
PUR Offense1223.929.642.5%3.211.5203801692114.451%48%45%41%18%.16

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1329:2120.948%64%4.439.81.11.85.52.2131.4
Purdue1230:2520.436%39%657.61.51.55.82.8129.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1337% (129)40% (103)28.4106.53.816 (89).14 (77)2.97 (95)74% (70)8% (28)1.01 (62)
PUR Defense1251% (80)41% (45) - - - - .08 (31)3 (48)68% (41)11% (38)0.97 (53)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1353% (105)42% (62) - - - - .13 (61)3.16 (84)68% (42)9% (95)0.91 (30)
PUR Offense1251% (55)45% (51)38.5168.84.420 (61).15 (69)3.16 (60)54% (133)12% (118)0.98 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1362% (5)47% (24)25.839.6281.37.110.929 (18)12 (85).3 (65)1.5 (118)31% (49)38% (10).43 (37)7% (93)1.8 (125)
PUR Defense1249% (56)40% (52) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (102)1.8 (121)33% (50)32% (93).38 (101)6% (73)2.2 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1346% (28)41% (64) - - - - - - 17 (3).3 (90)1.7 (93)32% (60)33% (106).34 (84)7% (44)2 (44)
PUR Offense1248% (81)41% (78)19.532.7211.26.510.815 (96)10 (56).22 (89)1.5 (111)31% (56)30% (75).31 (75)6% (71)2.1 (58)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.07  #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02  #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82  #45
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5  #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.07   Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.5   Purdue: -7.4




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56  #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07  #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70  #83
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4  #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.7

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 26
Purdue 23

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 25
Purdue 19

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 31
Purdue 26

Total Points: 57
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 23.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.3

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/02Purdue35Fresno State39Purdue -4Fresno State47.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue001 Overs
Fresno State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#59) FRES at (#81) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESPUR
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #59 #81
SP+SP+ #63 #90
Perf GradeGrade #63 #115
OffenseOff #44 #105
DefenseDef #100 #114
Spec TeamsST #74 #56
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #37
Fresno State on Offense
CategoryCat
FRES OffPUR Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #44 #114
SuccessSuc #48 #44
ExplosiveExp #62 #103
PPAPPA #51 #74
PowerPwr #53 #83
SP+SP+ #58 #72
Pts POPPO #36 #112
HavocHav #45 #48
Fresno State Run Game
CategoryCat
FRES OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #84 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #45
Run ExplRExp #62 #53
PPAExp #77 #31
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #95 #48
Stuff RateStuff #113 #50
TackleTak -  #43
Fresno State Pass Game
CategoryCat
FRES OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #28 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #52
Pass ExplPExl #118 #121
PPAExp #65 #102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #47 #53
F7 HavocF7 #28 #38
DB HavocDB #93 #73
Purdue on Offense
CategoryCatPUR OffFRES Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #105 #100
SuccessSuc #60 #60
ExplosiveExp #109 #52
PPAPPA #86 #66
PowerPwr #90 #45
SP+SP+ #89 #82
Pts POPPO #112 #20
HavocHav #106 #77
Purdue Run Game
CategoryCat
PUR OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #74 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #62
Run ExplRExp #76 #30
PPAExp #69 #61
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #84
Stuff RateStuff #107 #62
TackleTak -  #100
Purdue Pass Game
CategoryCatPUR OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #72 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #64
Pass ExplPExl #111 #93
PPAExp #89 #90
Pass Block/RushP Blk #85 #79
F7 HavocF7 #118 #95
DB HavocDB #71 #44
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 83° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Purdue -4.0 (47.0)
Fresno State won at Purdue this year (39-35)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Purdue in 2023 (39-35)

  
FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)28241967%297624107.1
Logan Fife529257%630326.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Sherrod17296795.672
Elijah Gilliam9639654.124
Logan Fife285211.916
Devon Rivers124403.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Erik Brooks59771513.149
Jalen Moss55706612.860
Jaelen Gill (Tr)50525610.565
Mac Dalena46508311.039

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dean Clark (Tr)801023
Malachi Langley795110
Levelle Bailey786305
Morice Norris57104010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Holmes178510
Morice Norris57104010
Devo Bridges508471
Levelle Bailey786305
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Morice Norris57104010
Carlton Johnson521017
Alzillion Hamilton310007

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card (Tr)21536559%23871586.5
Ryan Browne121675%104026.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee17280764.765
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11371686.362
Dylan Downing4821114.425
Hudson Card (Tr)9320352.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deion Burks47629713.484
TJ Sheffield32381211.943
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen25329013.230
Garrett Miller3024328.128

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1062012
Sanoussi Kane796127
Kydran Jenkins5615881
Yanni Karlaftis553300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway4915933
Kydran Jenkins5615881
O.C. Brothers206313
Yanni Karlaftis553300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sanoussi Kane796127
Marquis Wilson (Tr)200006
Cam Allen301006