Fresno State at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Purdue Boilermakers

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Purdue -4 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Fresno State 39 - Purdue: 35

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (27 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Fresno State -3 (SP+ FRES -8)
Projected Score: FRES: 28 - PUR: 25 (52)
PUR Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 1780 miles, 3 hrs behind

Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33	O	N
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Purdue's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Purdue vs Fresno State	-4.0	47.0	L 35 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/9	Purdue at Virginia Tech	+1.5	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Purdue vs Syracuse	+1.0	56.5	L 20 - 35	U	N
Fri 9/22	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/30	Purdue vs Illinois	-1.0	54.0	W 44 - 19	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Purdue at Iowa	+2.5	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Purdue vs Ohio State	+17.5	53.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Purdue at Nebraska	-1.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/4	Purdue at Michigan	+32.5	52.5	L 13 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Purdue vs Minnesota	+1.5	48.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+2.5	47.5	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Purdue vs Indiana	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	30.5	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	23.5	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8
PUR	#86 (.16)	42% (60)	23.9	45% (51)	3.16 (60)	169	41% (78)	211	3.21 (112)	#74 (.19)	40% (44)	30.4	41% (45)	40% (52)	4.28 (112)	57.6	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	30.5	26.7	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22
PUR Defense	12	30.4	33.3	40.2%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	40%	17%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	23.5	27.7	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18
PUR Offense	12	23.9	29.6	42.5%	3.21	1.5	20	380	169	211	4.4	51%	48%	45%	41%	18%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4
Purdue	12	30:25	20.4	36%	39%	6	57.6	1.5	1.5	5.8	2.8	1	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)
PUR Defense	12	51% (80)	41% (45)	-	-	-	-	.08 (31)	3 (48)	68% (41)	11% (38)	0.97 (53)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)
PUR Offense	12	51% (55)	45% (51)	38.5	168.8	4.4	20 (61)	.15 (69)	3.16 (60)	54% (133)	12% (118)	0.98 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)
PUR Defense	12	49% (56)	40% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (102)	1.8 (121)	33% (50)	32% (93)	.38 (101)	6% (73)	2.2 (96)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)
PUR Offense	12	48% (81)	41% (78)	19.5	32.7	211.2	6.5	10.8	15 (96)	10 (56)	.22 (89)	1.5 (111)	31% (56)	30% (75)	.31 (75)	6% (71)	2.1 (58)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 0.07 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.07 Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 0.5 Purdue: -7.4

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.7

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 28
Purdue 25

Total Points: 52

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 23.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.3

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Purdue	35	Fresno State	39	Fresno State	Purdue -4	Fresno State	47.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	0	0	1 Overs
Fresno State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#59) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: 0.07 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50

Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense is really good in red zone (#115)
Fresno State has a great TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State commits very few Penalties (#75)
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State Can Not Run the Ball (#5)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State run game is really bad (#70)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	PUR	FRES
OverallOver	#96	#51
OffenseOff	#89	#41
DefenseDef	#87	#77
Special TeamsST	#46	#60
PassingPass	#58	#22
RushingRush	#51	#60
Run BlockRBLK	#73	#65
Pass BlockPBLK	#73	#40
Route RunningWR Rt	#92	#40
TacklingTkl	#38	#86
Run DefenseR Def	#65	#100
Pass Rush DefPRush	#45	#62
Coverage DefCov	#113	#44

Rematch from Week 1
Purdue -4.0 (47.0)
Fresno State won at Purdue this year (39-35)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Purdue in 2023 (39-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | PUR
Depth Chart: FRES | PUR
Rosters: FRES | PUR

(#81) Purdue Info
Power Rating: -2.56 #81
Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #37
Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30

Record at home: 3 - 4 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Purdue Highlights
Purdue Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Purdue Deficiencies
Purdue offense is not Explosive (#69)
Purdue Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Purdue offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#90)
Purdue Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Purdue gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#59)
Purdue has a bad red zone defense (#60)

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)	282	419	67%	2976	24	10	7.1
Logan Fife	52	92	57%	630	3	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Sherrod	172	967	9	5.6	72
Elijah Gilliam	96	396	5	4.1	24
Logan Fife	28	52	1	1.9	16
Devon Rivers	12	44	0	3.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erik Brooks	59	771	5	13.1	49
Jalen Moss	55	706	6	12.8	60
Jaelen Gill (Tr)	50	525	6	10.5	65
Mac Dalena	46	508	3	11.0	39

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dean Clark (Tr)	80	1	0	2	3
Malachi Langley	79	5	1	1	0
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Holmes	17	8	5	1	0
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Devo Bridges	50	8	4	7	1
Levelle Bailey	78	6	3	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Morice Norris	57	10	4	0	10
Carlton Johnson	52	1	0	1	7
Alzillion Hamilton	31	0	0	0	7

Purdue's OC Graham Harrell

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card (Tr)	215	365	59%	2387	15	8	6.5
Ryan Browne	12	16	75%	104	0	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	172	807	6	4.7	65
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	113	716	8	6.3	62
Dylan Downing	48	211	1	4.4	25
Hudson Card (Tr)	93	203	5	2.2	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Burks	47	629	7	13.4	84
TJ Sheffield	32	381	2	11.9	43
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen	25	329	0	13.2	30
Garrett Miller	30	243	2	8.1	28

View Purdue's Full Roster

Purdue's DC Kevin Kane

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	106	2	0	1	2
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	49	15	9	3	3
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
O.C. Brothers	20	6	3	1	3
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Marquis Wilson (Tr)	20	0	0	0	6
Cam Allen	30	1	0	0	6