Northwestern at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini(#21)

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Illinois -5 (46.5) (-192) Open: -5.0
Northwestern 45 - Illinois: 43 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ILL is playing their 4th straight game
NW is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -2 (SP+ NW -1)
Projected Score: NW: 23 - ILL: 25 (48)
ILL Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
NW Travel: 139 miles

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 29 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8
ILL	#66 (.2)	45% (30)	24.5	44% (56)	3.31 (32)	125	48% (14)	266	3.9 (71)	#85 (.2)	44% (102)	29.4	45% (87)	45% (110)	4.09 (96)	62.4	1.9	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	13	22.1	19.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1
ILL Defense	12	29.4	30	44.4%	4.09	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	45%	15%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	13	22.5	26.4	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14
ILL Offense	12	24.5	26.4	45.5%	3.9	1.9	20	391	125	266	3.8	45%	53%	44%	48%	20%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7
Illinois	12	28:24	20.3	37%	54%	6.6	62.4	1.9	1.3	4.8	1.9	2	26

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)
ILL Defense	12	51% (75)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.15 (78)	3.27 (104)	73% (68)	9% (100)	0.89 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)
ILL Offense	12	45% (103)	44% (56)	33	125.1	3.8	12 (116)	.07 (108)	3.31 (32)	67% (109)	12% (98)	0.84 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)
ILL Defense	12	49% (69)	45% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.28 (76)	1.5 (21)	31% (78)	34% (114)	.3 (63)	6% (62)	1.8 (7)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)
ILL Offense	12	53% (35)	48% (14)	21.8	34.5	265.9	7.7	12.2	23 (51)	13 (97)	.37 (35)	1.5 (108)	28% (14)	33% (48)	.36 (63)	9% (130)	1.9 (108)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.56 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -0.56 Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -1.4 Illinois: -2.6

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 25
Northwestern 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 27
Illinois 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 25
Illinois 25

Total Points: 50

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Illinois	20	Northwestern	13	Illinois -7	Push	44.5	Under
2024	11/30	Northwestern	28	Illinois	38	Illinois -8.5	Illinois	42.5	Over
2023	11/25	Illinois	43	Northwestern	45	Illinois -5	Northwestern	46.5	Over
2022	11/26	Northwestern	3	Illinois	41	Illinois -15.0	Illinois	38.0	Over
2021	11/27	Illinois	47	Northwestern	14	Illinois -7	Illinois	45.0	Over
2020	12/12	Northwestern	28	Illinois	10	Northwestern -13	Northwestern	41.0	Under
2019	11/30	Illinois	10	Northwestern	29	Illinois -6.5	Northwestern	38.0	Over
2018	11/24	Northwestern	24	Illinois	16	Northwestern -14.5	Illinois	56.0	Under
2017	11/25	Illinois	7	Northwestern	42	Northwestern -16.5	Northwestern	46.0	Over
2016	11/26	Northwestern	42	Illinois	21	Northwestern -15	Northwestern	48.5	Over
2015	11/28	Illinois	14	Northwestern	24	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	42.0	Under
2014	11/29	Northwestern	33	Illinois	47	Northwestern -9	Illinois	0
2013	11/30	Illinois	34	Northwestern	37	Northwestern -4	Illinois	0
2012	11/24	Northwestern	50	Illinois	14
2011	10/01	Illinois	38	Northwestern	35
2010	11/20	Northwestern	27	Illinois	48
2009	11/14	Illinois	16	Northwestern	21
2008	11/22	Northwestern	27	Illinois	10
2007	11/17	Illinois	41	Northwestern	22
2006	11/18	Northwestern	27	Illinois	16
2005	11/19	Illinois	21	Northwestern	38
2004	11/20	Northwestern	28	Illinois	21
2003	11/22	Illinois	20	Northwestern	37
2001	11/22	Illinois	34	Northwestern	28
2000	11/17	Northwestern	61	Illinois	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	9	6	7 Overs
Northwestern	16	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 8	3 - 4	1 - 4
Road Teams	12 - 13	8 - 4	4 - 1	4 - 3

(#66) NW at (#63) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#66	#63
SP+SP+	#71	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#82	#72
OffenseOff	#109	#70
DefenseDef	#34	#67
Spec TeamsST	#71	#7
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#63

Northwestern Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#67
SuccessSuc	#110	#102
ExplosiveExp	#108	#14
PPAPPA	#113	#85
PowerPwr	#79	#104
SP+SP+	#104	#49
Pts POPPO	#48	#96
HavocHav	#67	#87

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#126	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#87
Run ExplRExp	#128	#22
PPAExp	#120	#78
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#83
TackleTak	-	#28

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#21
PPAExp	#100	#76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#70
F7 HavocF7	#88	#100
DB HavocDB	#23	#62

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#34
SuccessSuc	#30	#83
ExplosiveExp	#113	#6
PPAPPA	#66	#33
PowerPwr	#47	#66
SP+SP+	#90	#30
Pts POPPO	#71	#56
HavocHav	#124	#115

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#124	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#73
Run ExplRExp	#125	#31
PPAExp	#108	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#9
PPAExp	#35	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#122
F7 HavocF7	#98	#105
DB HavocDB	#130	#101

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 39° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 13
Illinois -5.0 (46.5)
Northwestern won at Illinois this year (45-43)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Northwestern last year (38-28)
Northwestern beat Illinois in 2023 (45-43)
Illinois beat Northwestern in 2022 (41-3)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5