Northwestern at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview
Northwestern logo Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Illinois -5 (46.5) (-192)  Open: -5.0
Northwestern 45 - Illinois: 43  (Big Ten)

 
Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ILL is playing their 4th straight game
NW is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -2   (SP+ NW -1)
Projected Score: NW: 23 - ILL: 25 (47)
ILL Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
NW Travel: 139 miles
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Northwestern at Rutgers+5.039.0L 7 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Northwestern vs UTEP-1.040.0W 38 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Northwestern at Duke+17.048.0L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/23 Northwestern vs Minnesota+11.539.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 Northwestern vs Penn State+27.048.0L 13 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 Northwestern vs Howard-23.051.0W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Northwestern at Nebraska+10.540.0L 9 - 17UY
Sat 10/28 Northwestern vs Maryland+14.048.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Northwestern vs Iowa+4.530.5L 7 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Northwestern at Wisconsin+9.543.5W 24 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-2.547.5W 23 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Northwestern at Illinois+5.046.5W 45 - 43OY
Sat 12/23 Northwestern vs Utah+6.544.5W 14 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Illinois vs Toledo-7.045.5W 30 - 28ON
Fri 9/8 Illinois at Kansas+3.557.5L 23 - 34UN
Sat 9/16 Illinois vs Penn State+14.047.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 9/23 Illinois vs Florida Atlantic-16.045.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 9/30 Illinois at Purdue+1.054.0L 19 - 44ON
Fri 10/6 Illinois vs Nebraska-3.543.0L 7 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Illinois at Maryland+13.552.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/21 Illinois vs Wisconsin+3.040.5L 21 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Illinois at Minnesota+1.543.0W 27 - 26OY
Sat 11/11 Illinois vs Indiana-4.543.5W 48 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 Illinois at Iowa+2.533.5L 13 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Illinois vs Northwestern-5.046.5L 43 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW.0137%17.838%2.6312538%2102.67.1745%26.346%44%4.0340.82.51.5
ILL.1544%28.343%3.0716845%2093.37-.0233%21.730%36%2.259.11.22.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Offense1217.817.637.2%2.672.5193351252103.251%47%38%38%18%.01
ILL Defense1321.717.632.8%2.22.5 - - - - - 45%53%30%36%22%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Defense1226.328.845.1%4.031.5 - - - - - 59%41%46%44%13%.17
ILL Offense1328.33243.8%3.371.221377168209454%46%43%45%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northwestern1229:011937%49%4.640.82.51.54.51.9026.9
Illinois1332:4121.238%48%6.459.11.22.56.12.1130.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Offense1251%38%39.1125.13.211-.042.6367%9%0.86
ILL Defense1345%30% - - - - -.032.6450%11%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Defense1259%46% - - - - .163.1674%8%0.92
ILL Offense1354%43%41.9167.7418.083.0772%10%0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Offense1247%38%20.434.8210.36.110.31017.151.433%21%.049%1.9
ILL Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 24.071.436%23%.0511%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Defense1241%44% - - - - - - 6.221.329%29%.164%1.7
ILL Offense1346%45%2130.2209.46.910155.251.430%32%.242%1.7

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.56 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -0.56   Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -1.4   Illinois: -2.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.6
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 25
Northwestern 23

Projected Total Points: 47
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Northwestern28Illinois38IllinoisIllinois -8.5Illinois42.5Over
202311/25Illinois43Northwestern45NorthwesternIllinois -5Northwestern46.5Over
202211/26Northwestern3Illinois41IllinoisIllinois -15.0Illinois38.0Over
202111/27Illinois47Northwestern14IllinoisIllinois -7Illinois45.0Over
202012/12Northwestern28Illinois10NorthwesternNorthwestern -13Northwestern41.0Under
201911/30Illinois10Northwestern29NorthwesternIllinois -6.5Northwestern38.0Over
201811/24Northwestern24Illinois16NorthwesternNorthwestern -14.5Illinois56.0Under
201711/25Illinois7Northwestern42NorthwesternNorthwestern -16.5Northwestern46.0Over
201611/26Northwestern42Illinois21NorthwesternNorthwestern -15Northwestern48.5Over
201511/28Illinois14Northwestern24NorthwesternNorthwestern -3.5Northwestern42.0Under
201411/29Northwestern33Illinois47IllinoisNorthwestern -9Illinois0
201311/30Illinois34Northwestern37NorthwesternNorthwestern -4Illinois0
201211/24Northwestern50Illinois14Northwestern
201110/01Illinois38Northwestern35Illinois
201011/20Northwestern27Illinois48Illinois
200911/14Illinois16Northwestern21Northwestern
200811/22Northwestern27Illinois10Northwestern
200711/17Illinois41Northwestern22Illinois
200611/18Northwestern27Illinois16Northwestern
200511/19Illinois21Northwestern38Northwestern
200411/20Northwestern28Illinois21Northwestern
200311/22Illinois20Northwestern37Northwestern
200111/22Illinois34Northwestern28Illinois
200011/17Northwestern61Illinois23Northwestern
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois867 Overs
Northwestern1663 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 124 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams12 - 128 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#66) Northwestern Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.56 #66
Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30
Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #49
Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90

Team Profile






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Northwestern     Ratings Matchup     Illinois
Power #66
#63
Off #79
#47
Def #66
#104
Talent #54
#62
SP+ #71
#75
SP+ Off #104
#90
SP+ Def #30
#49

Rematch from Week 13
Illinois -5.0 (46.5)
Northwestern won at Illinois this year (45-43)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Northwestern last year (38-28)
Northwestern beat Illinois in 2023 (45-43)
Illinois beat Northwestern in 2022 (41-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 39° - Wind: 7 mph


Team Information
Injuries: NW | ILL
Depth Chart: NW | ILL
Rosters: NW | ILL
(#63) Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49
Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Team Profile






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Northwestern's OC Mike Bajakian
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sullivan385372%474338.9
Ryan Hilinski91560%121018.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Tyus III237121595.146
Brendan Sullivan4715143.230
Jacob Gill51302.69
A.J. Henning (Tr)5801.69
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
A.J. Henning (Tr)59603410.246
Bryce Kirtz39598015.355
Jacob Gill35411211.759
Thomas Gordon2725219.326

View Northwestern's Full Roster
Northwestern's DC Vacant
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xander Mueller575114
Nigel Williams530002
Garnett Hollis Jr.461006
Jaheem Joseph421112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reginald Pearson214200
Xander Mueller575114
Rod Heard372114
Grayson Metz322101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Garnett Hollis Jr.461006
Xander Mueller575114
Rod Heard372114

Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Reggie Love III8337224.522
Patrick Bryant51402.87
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Eian Pugh53707.414
Reggie Love III72103.06
Owen Anderson21316.511

View Illinois's Full Roster
Illinois's DC Aaron Henry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Ryan Meed501011
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Tahveon Nicholson323001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Dylan Davis192110
Christian Lorenzo171131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Zachary Tobe172003
Ryan Meed501011